Ontario Election 2022

[MaxQue]

In determining which party should be the official opposition the share of the popular vote is totally irrelevant

It has been used in Quebec in case of a tie in seats.

[DL]

When was there ever a tie in Quebec as to which party would be the official opposition?

If there actually was a tie in seats I wonder if there is any precedence for having co-opposition parties?

[Continential]

When was there ever a tie in Quebec as to which party would be the official opposition?

If there actually was a tie in seats I wonder if there is any precedence for having co-opposition parties?

In 2018, Quebec solidaire and Parti Quebecois were tied and as a result, the Speaker ruled that the Parti Quebecois would be the second opposition because they had a larger share of the popular vote.

[brucejoel99]

The NDP's no better, in light of how Horwath just couldn't step aside 2 years ago when the writing was on the wall because she's too proud to recognize that she'll never win enough of the province over.

But again, was the writing ever that clearly on the wall for *her*?  A lot of the problem might be more with how it's been decreed that the ONDP *at large* is too proud to recognize that they'll never win enough of the province over--*whatever* the leadership.

And the laughing-his-way-to-a-majority circumstance on Doug's part is at least in part through MSM decreeing that a dud like Del Duca is the "real" opposition, whatever the '18 seat totals.

I think the writing was on the wall when, in Dec. 2019, polling had the post-budget cut, pre-pandemic Ford government as unpopular as the Wynne government... & it was the then-leaderless OLP with their official party status-less 7 MPPs - one of whom was Wynne, because, again, this was still just 18 months after they were evicted from their unpopular 15 years of power - leading polls instead of the OO! Now, they may fall from OO to 3rd, in their 4th election with Horwath as leader, against Doug the Thug & Steven "Who?" Del Duca, except he's not a nobody because he's just as good a target as Ford, given his baggage from the Wynne years, but sigh. If I were an ONDP member in 2022, I'd be embarrassed beyond belief, not least because it's still a party that literally did prove capable of winning enough of the province over once upon a time.

[DL]

When was there ever a tie in Quebec as to which party would be the official opposition?

If there actually was a tie in seats I wonder if there is any precedence for having co-opposition parties?

In 2018, Quebec solidaire and Parti Quebecois were tied and as a result, the Speaker ruled that the Parti Quebecois would be the second opposition because they had a larger share of the popular vote.

Since when does it mean anything to be "second opposition party" as far as I know you can either be government or official opposition or be an other official party. I don't think parties get any extra status or funding based on being #3 instead of #4

[MaxQue]

When was there ever a tie in Quebec as to which party would be the official opposition?

If there actually was a tie in seats I wonder if there is any precedence for having co-opposition parties?

In 2018, Quebec solidaire and Parti Quebecois were tied and as a result, the Speaker ruled that the Parti Quebecois would be the second opposition because they had a larger share of the popular vote.

Since when does it mean anything to be "second opposition party" as far as I know you can either be government or official opposition or be an other official party. I don't think parties get any extra status or funding based on being #3 instead of #4

It has impact on time allocation in debates and in speaking order. For exemple, the 2nd opposition is entitled a deputy speaker position, not the 3rd one, same thing for some commissions.

[adma]

The NDP's no better, in light of how Horwath just couldn't step aside 2 years ago when the writing was on the wall because she's too proud to recognize that she'll never win enough of the province over.

But again, was the writing ever that clearly on the wall for *her*?  A lot of the problem might be more with how it's been decreed that the ONDP *at large* is too proud to recognize that they'll never win enough of the province over--*whatever* the leadership.

And the laughing-his-way-to-a-majority circumstance on Doug's part is at least in part through MSM decreeing that a dud like Del Duca is the "real" opposition, whatever the '18 seat totals.

I think the writing was on the wall when, in Dec. 2019, polling had the post-budget cut, pre-pandemic Ford government as unpopular as the Wynne government... & it was the then-leaderless OLP with their official party status-less 7 MPPs - one of whom was Wynne, because, again, this was still just 18 months after they were evicted from their unpopular 15 years of power - leading polls instead of the OO! Now, they may fall from OO to 3rd, in their 4th election with Horwath as leader, against Doug the Thug & Steven "Who?" Del Duca, except he's not a nobody because he's just as good a target as Ford, given his baggage from the Wynne years, but sigh. If I were an ONDP member in 2022, I'd be embarrassed beyond belief, not least because it's still a party that literally did prove capable of winning enough of the province over once upon a time.

And that, once again, is where the stacked deck that has *always* plagued the ONDP kicks in--compounded here by the double-decker burden of Doug Ford's patronizing I-won-you-lost manner of governance, and the fact that the MSM has *never* been at ease with the ONDP in OO, preferring to emphasize the negative (i.e. not that they had their best result since 1990 in 2018, but that they blew an opportunity to defeat Doug) and presumptively act as if '18 was nothing more than a "temporary condition".  And also, when you're referring to Dec 2019, that was shortly after the federal election; and for a lot of Ontarians, the federal scene is a reminder of that Lib-default "anti-Conservative" comfort zone, so support for Justin winds up bleeding provincially.  So that it didn't matter whether the actual OLP was a leaderless lame duck; it was still the "Justin party" in many people's minds, whereas as goes the federal NDP, despite his provincial past, Jagmeet was more of an awkward third leg.

By and large, NDPers have been through this before over and over, so a good deal of them are inured against embarrassment--in fact, re the likelihood of their falling from OO to 3rd, whatever the raw vote totals, I suspect the bigger raw embarassment would be in the event that after all the MSM pumping this up as primarily a Ford/Del Duca contest, due to vote distribution the NDP *still* finishes with more seats than the Libs.  "Hey--this wasn't in the script!"

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

New Mainstreet riding poll has Beaches--East York as a statistical tie between the Liberals and...PCs??? All three major parties in the high 20s, but normally you wouldn't even see the PCs crossing 20 in this riding. My guess is it's an outlier, riding polls aren't known to be great in Canada. But if accurate, that's a very surprising one. Beaches--East York is pretty left-wing, and not a "Ford Nation" riding either.

[adma]

New Mainstreet riding poll has Beaches--East York as a statistical tie between the Liberals and...PCs??? All three major parties in the high 20s, but normally you wouldn't even see the PCs crossing 20 in this riding. My guess is it's an outlier, riding polls aren't known to be great in Canada. But if accurate, that's a very surprising one. Beaches--East York is pretty left-wing, and not a "Ford Nation" riding either.

If it were conducted completely N of Taylor/Massey Creek, it might make sense.

[adma]

A sort of Conrad Black endorsement of New Blue--cute


https://nationalpost.com/opinion/conrad-black-doug-fords-leftward-shift-has-created-a-vacuum-for-new-blue-to-fill

[DL]

New Mainstreet riding poll has Beaches--East York as a statistical tie between the Liberals and...PCs??? All three major parties in the high 20s, but normally you wouldn't even see the PCs crossing 20 in this riding. My guess is it's an outlier, riding polls aren't known to be great in Canada. But if accurate, that's a very surprising one. Beaches--East York is pretty left-wing, and not a "Ford Nation" riding either.

Its almost impossible to conduct riding polls in urban ridings nowadays because most people have cell phones and there is no way to get cell phones linked to what riding people live in - and Mainstreet has a history of really blowing it on riding polls in Toronto. In the last federal election they did a poll of Davenport and week before the election that said the Liberals had a 30 point lead and that the NDP was barely ahead of the Tories. When the votes were counted the Liberals beat the NDP by only 65 votes and the Tories were in single digits!

In the 2018 provincial election Mainstreet did a riding poll in my own riding of University-Rosedale that pointed to a three-way dead heat. When the votes were counted the NDP won easily with almost 50% of the vote and the PC candidate was a distant third. The only possible explanation is that they only surveyed people in "Rosedale" and forgot to poll anyone in "University"!

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I believe it is traditional at this juncture for me to note that the record of constituency polling is not particularly good anywhere and that - usually - if you see one with particularly odd results it's because the poll is fit for lining bird cages and not much else.

[IAMCANADIAN]

New Mainstreet riding poll has Beaches--East York as a statistical tie between the Liberals and...PCs??? All three major parties in the high 20s, but normally you wouldn't even see the PCs crossing 20 in this riding. My guess is it's an outlier, riding polls aren't known to be great in Canada. But if accurate, that's a very surprising one. Beaches--East York is pretty left-wing, and not a "Ford Nation" riding either.

Its almost impossible to conduct riding polls in urban ridings nowadays because most people have cell phones and there is no way to get cell phones linked to what riding people live in - and Mainstreet has a history of really blowing it on riding polls in Toronto. In the last federal election they did a poll of Davenport and week before the election that said the Liberals had a 30 point lead and that the NDP was barely ahead of the Tories. When the votes were counted the Liberals beat the NDP by only 65 votes and the Tories were in single digits!

In the 2018 provincial election Mainstreet did a riding poll in my own riding of University-Rosedale that pointed to a three-way dead heat. When the votes were counted the NDP won easily with almost 50% of the vote and the PC candidate was a distant third. The only possible explanation is that they only surveyed people in "Rosedale" and forgot to poll anyone in "University"!

I do think that the Mainstreet riding polls undercount NDP support especially in urban ridings.

The PC's were within 1 percent of Liberals for second in University-Rosedale in 2018 so that example may not be the worst if you assume there was a lot of late deciding NDP voters.

[DistingFlyer]

Update to poll graph:

[adma]

 And also, when you're referring to Dec 2019, that was shortly after the federal election; and for a lot of Ontarians, the federal scene is a reminder of that Lib-default "anti-Conservative" comfort zone, so support for Justin winds up bleeding provincially.  So that it didn't matter whether the actual OLP was a leaderless lame duck; it was still the "Justin party" in many people's minds, whereas as goes the federal NDP, despite his provincial past, Jagmeet was more of an awkward third leg.

Upon reflection, maybe when it comes to the "ONDP didn't take proper advantage of being in Official Opposition" narrative, the fact that there was virtually no carryover of that dynamic to the federal sphere is an element I've seen few naysayers dwell upon--and remember, Jagmeet was part of the provincial caucus prior to becoming federal leader.  (*Maybe* it would have been different, in a Alexa '97 way, had he run in his Bramptonian home turf rather than in Burnaby.)

[brucejoel99]

 And also, when you're referring to Dec 2019, that was shortly after the federal election; and for a lot of Ontarians, the federal scene is a reminder of that Lib-default "anti-Conservative" comfort zone, so support for Justin winds up bleeding provincially.  So that it didn't matter whether the actual OLP was a leaderless lame duck; it was still the "Justin party" in many people's minds, whereas as goes the federal NDP, despite his provincial past, Jagmeet was more of an awkward third leg.

Upon reflection, maybe when it comes to the "ONDP didn't take proper advantage of being in Official Opposition" narrative, the fact that there was virtually no carryover of that dynamic to the federal sphere is an element I've seen few naysayers dwell upon--and remember, Jagmeet was part of the provincial caucus prior to becoming federal leader.  (*Maybe* it would have been different, in a Alexa '97 way, had he run in his Bramptonian home turf rather than in Burnaby.)

The difference: Singh was the NDP leader for 1 election in Dec. 2019, & Horwath had already been the ONDP leader for 3. And, ofc, the same pissed-off dynamic def existed after Mulcair managed to blow it so badly while already the federal O.O.

[DL]

Yes but keep in mind that it was Layton who led the NDP to OO status and the Mulcair who blew it. In contrast it was Horwath who let the NDP to a great result in 2018

[MaxQue]

Yes but keep in mind that it was Layton who led the NDP to OO status and the Mulcair who blew it. In contrast it was Horwath who let the NDP to a great result in 2018

For having worked on that campaign, it's not Mulcair who blew it, but the paid campaign strategists and party employees.

[brucejoel99]

Yes but keep in mind that it was Layton who led the NDP to OO status and the Mulcair who blew it. In contrast it was Horwath who let the NDP to a great result in 2018

Oh, of course, but the point is that the principle is the same: Mulcair, as the leader of the Official Opposition, delivered polling performances as late as the campaign period itself that saw the NDP capable of securing a majority government, & then he blew it; Horwath, in her 3rd go, finally secured the O.O. status, only to see the official party status-deprived OLP rise up back from the dead like a phoenix from the ashes & poll at majority government-levels within 18 months' time because she - for whatever reason(s) - couldn't capitalize on the government's failings. At that point, her blowing it & surviving becomes so baffling as to seem like she has kompromat on literally each & every single member of the ONDP.

(Not to mention, while the 2018 result was obviously great, it was in spite of Horwath, not because of her: they ran their generic progressive platform against a very-unpopular Wynne/the 15-year-old OLP government & the then-widely despised & mistrusted Ford-led PCs. Frankly, had she resigned after 2014 saw the ONDP run on a platform arguably to the right of the OLP, they literally could've been the incumbent government seeking re-election right now, but that's another matter.)

[adma]

Yes but keep in mind that it was Layton who led the NDP to OO status and the Mulcair who blew it. In contrast it was Horwath who let the NDP to a great result in 2018

For having worked on that campaign, it's not Mulcair who blew it, but the paid campaign strategists and party employees.

And also, unless there's some *really* big last-minute swoon, it's unlikely that Horwath is going to, uh, "blow it" quite as bad as Mulcair did in '15 (or for that matter, Wynne in '18).  Plus, blaming Mulcair for Jagmeet's failure in '19 is like blaming Audrey on Alexa's failure in '97--and yet I referred to Alexa's Maritime home-turf boomlet in '97, which *nobody* in the aftermath of Audrey could ever have forecast.  So who knows what might have happened had Jagmeet run in his home turf as planned rather than being parachuted out to Burnaby--plus the fact in the first place that the whole post-Mulcair federal Dipper stink and disarray was still in place when Andrea overachieved in '18, and it isn't like there's no symbiosis whatsoever btw/the federal and provincial wings.  And beyond all that, had he not made the jump federally, it was common sentiment that Jagmeet was well placed to be Andrea's successor *provincially*.  That is, *ideally*, one might say, if the provincial Horwath Democrats were truly on a roll after '18, something of that reflected glory ought to have been felt federally, no?  (Never mind that it didn't happen federally in Alberta in '15 despite Rachel Notley.)

So that's my point.  Among all the "Andrea the loser" narrative-mongering out there, the matter of '18 provincially having *no* effect upon '19 (or '21, for that matter) federally is a stone eternally left unturned--yet it's "available" for whomever wants to pursue it...

[adma]

Yes but keep in mind that it was Layton who led the NDP to OO status and the Mulcair who blew it. In contrast it was Horwath who let the NDP to a great result in 2018

Oh, of course, but the point is that the principle is the same: Mulcair, as the leader of the Official Opposition, delivered polling performances as late as the campaign period itself that saw the NDP capable of securing a majority government, & then he blew it; Horwath, in her 3rd go, finally secured the O.O. status, only to see the official party status-deprived OLP rise up back from the dead like a phoenix from the ashes & poll at majority government-levels within 18 months' time because she - for whatever reason(s) - couldn't capitalize on the government's failings. At that point, her blowing it & surviving becomes so baffling as to seem like she has kompromat on literally each & every single member of the ONDP.

(Not to mention, while the 2018 result was obviously great, it was in spite of Horwath, not because of her: they ran their generic progressive platform against a very-unpopular Wynne/the 15-year-old OLP government & the then-widely despised & mistrusted Ford-led PCs. Frankly, had she resigned after 2014 saw the ONDP run on a platform arguably to the right of the OLP, they literally could've been the incumbent government seeking re-election right now, but that's another matter.)

Well, two points here, dovetailing into one another: (1) re the "literally could've been the incumbent government seeking re-election" point, you're assuming that Horwath's hypothetical successor, *any* hypothetical successor would have been any more successful on that front, while totally disregarding what I've referred to before as the eternally stacked deck against the NDP, and (2) you're assuming that Mulcair's polling performances (which were themselves, in practice, kind of "ceilinged" around the third-of-the-vote threshold, due in part to the aforementioned stacked deck which had thwarted previous poll-leaders ranging from Tommy Douglas to Ed Broadbent) *didn't* have their own in-spite-of-the-leader element.  Because TBH, to the electorate at large, Mulcair was (aside from native-son status within QC) a bit of a blank slate going into '15; his primary "advantage" was that he led Official Opposition, and he wasn't Harper.  In fact, one might argue that Mulcair's doom came once the electorate focused *more* upon the leader, and didn't like what they saw--particularly once Justin came into greater relief.

IOW Mulcair *embodied* the "leadership unlikeability" that many seem to want to ascribe to Horwath--it's like in these discussions over what constitutes "good" and/or "winning" NDP leadership, there's some kind of topsy-turvy-land where, I don't know, Mulcair's the ideal because he's more conventionally "statesman-like" in a, I don't know, "Liberal power-broker" way.  And which also, as I've suggested before, reeks of a certain sexism--safe to say that those most prone to overaccentuating Horwath's negatives are almost invariably male, and who can't relate to a certain touchy-feeliness she's always done well.  Between that and the zero-sum overemphasis such critics put upon Winning The Premiership And If You Can't Do That You're A Loser, it strikes me as a bit of a "psephological manosphere" tableau--I don't know, maybe Mulcair and Horwath are the Johnny Depp and Amber Heard of "unlikeable" NDP leaders, and the "unlikeability" one chooses to most dwell upon says the most about the person...

[King of Kensington]

For having worked on that campaign, it's not Mulcair who blew it, but the paid campaign strategists and party employees.

The buck stops at the top.

[MaxQue]

For having worked on that campaign, it's not Mulcair who blew it, but the paid campaign strategists and party employees.

The buck stops at the top.

Which is nonsense, as he is not the one who hired them and he couldn't fire them even if he wanted too, because labour law.

[brucejoel99]

adma, I'm done with being dragged around in circles on this topic after this post, & no offense, but most of what you have to say seems meaningless. The point of all of this is that Horwath & her ONDP, after nearly a decade with her at their helm & regardless of external factors, have proven incapable of presenting themselves as the obvious government of Ontario-in-waiting. When the federal NDP "blew it," failing to seal Layton's deal under Mulcair & finally win government, it wasn't through lack of effort: he'd slowly, but surely tanked a lot of goodwill by trying to appeal to the center, & so got outflanked by Justin. He was handed a single golden opportunity, squandered it, & got kicked to the curb. (That Singh thereafter brought the party back to a place of consistently polling well above the pre-Layton NDP is irrelevant, regardless of the fact that doing so actually earned him enough goodwill & trust in the party to justify his continued leadership thereof.) For better or for worse, by 10/19/2015, most likely Canadian voters knew enough about who Mulcair was & could imagine what his prime-ministership would be like, hence the verdict of the party membership at his leadership review 6 months later. Most Ontarians might not care all that much about provincial politics, but for one reason or another, Ford has been a non-stop topic of conversation in the province for nearly 4 years now, & Horwath has failed time & again to establish herself as the other half of a binary, OLP-less choice, perhaps through no fault of her own, but even after 3 tries, that ought to be irrelevant. Hell, even after 2, when anybody with a brain could've told Kinnock the day after the '92 British election that he'd be PM in '97 if he stayed on since Tory rule would inevitably crash after nearly 20 years, he still knew to step down.

[KaiserDave]

Yes but keep in mind that it was Layton who led the NDP to OO status and the Mulcair who blew it. In contrast it was Horwath who let the NDP to a great result in 2018

For having worked on that campaign, it's not Mulcair who blew it, but the paid campaign strategists and party employees.

Can you elaborate on this at all?