Ontario Election 2022

[adma]

I don't know the specific math used to calculate the trendline, but it looks like what I would expect. This is how extrapolation works; there's a slight upward trend in the PC vote over the week shown and the exponential algorithm naturally projects that trend to accelerate. The fact that the results look so strange is why you should not take it seriously right now, as DistingFlyer notes himself.

However, judging from the actual bullet-point polls within the week shown, there seems a bit of "Trump blue/orange sharpie" speculative dubiousness about the PC and, even more so, the NDP trendlines.  There simply isn't enough variation to draw any such conclusions about trajectory.

Sure, it's how extrapolation works; but it's also what gives this kind of "exponential algorithming" a bit of a psephological-quackery rep, up there with (as has been mentioned re Kiiwetinoong) using uniform-swing to project landslide PC seat totals in the North...

[Hatman 🍁]

Some more riding polls, but they're paywalled so I don't know the results, but the Liberals have a comfortable lead in Kingston and the Tories are ahead in York South-Weston. The latter would be historically unprecedented (it hasn't gone Tory in 70 years), but not that much of a surprise considering the tentacles of Ford Nation (and a literal Ford is the candidate there)

[DistingFlyer]

As promised, here's a graph of polls for the first week of the campaign; trendlines carry forward three days from the final figures, which can come in handy for making final forecasts in the last couple days but aren't particularly significant at the moment.

Looking back at this chart, through the individual poll indicators I can't see how this indicates a north-of-40-PC/south-of-20 NDP trendline--or it's like there's "liberties" taken in drawing said trendlines...

I don't know the specific math used to calculate the trendline, but it looks like what I would expect. This is how extrapolation works; there's a slight upward trend in the PC vote over the week shown and the exponential algorithm naturally projects that trend to accelerate. The fact that the results look so strange is why you should not take it seriously right now, as DistingFlyer notes himself.

Quite right; the lines are beginning to settle down a little more now (will update the graph if/when any polls from yesterday come in).

For those interested in the minutiae, the data from which the trendlines are derived are from 13 Mar to the present, and the trendline formula itself is a six-order polynomial (normally I use four - see the poll graphs for other elections - but it didn't produce very good lines for the 2018-22 period). Nothing nefarious involved.

[adma]

Quite right; the lines are beginning to settle down a little more now (will update the graph if/when any polls from yesterday come in).

For those interested in the minutiae, the data from which the trendlines are derived are from 13 Mar to the present, and the trendline formula itself is a six-order polynomial (normally I use four - see the poll graphs for other elections - but it didn't produce very good lines for the 2018-22 period). Nothing nefarious involved.

Still, it looks less like an actual reflection of ground reality, than some kind of graphic-cooking wishful projection on the Liberals' part, eager to assert themselves as the *only* realistic electable alternative to the PCs.  "See!  This the trendline!  The New Democrats are going nowhere, folks!"  Pushing the notion of a Mulcair '15 (or Wynne '18) tailspin-in-the-works that isn't really there.
In fact, the NDP's been fairly stable in the low-to-mid-20s range for some time now, and that already could have been inferred from early in the campaign.  An "inconvenient" kind of "stable", sure, esp. for those invested in that more Lib-centric strategic-defeat-of-the-FordCons bugaboo: "gee, that New Democrat support isn't quite rolling over and playing dead the way we wish--maybe we ought to engage in some graphic push-polling"...

[DL]

Its interesting to note just how inefficient the Liberal vote is in Ontario when its at relatively low levels. The latest topline numbers from the Mainstreet daily tracking has the PCs at 36%, the Liberals dropping to 26.8% and the NDP rising to 24.4% - with the OLP leading the ONDP by 2.4% - they project that with this provincewide split, the NDP would take 26 seats and the OLP would take 13 (with 11 tossups) and the PCs would romp to a majority with 73 seats.

https://twitter.com/elxnometre/status/1525498671772717057?s=21&t=dm5MaUrQyXhXfaEMb72RSw

Let's not forget that in the 2011 federal election in Ontario the NDP took 25.8% and the Liberals took 25.3% - but the NDP took 22 seats and the Liberals just 11.

[DistingFlyer]

Its interesting to note just how inefficient the Liberal vote is in Ontario when its at relatively low levels. The latest topline numbers from the Mainstreet daily tracking has the PCs at 36%, the Liberals dropping to 26.8% and the NDP rising to 24.4% - with the OLP leading the ONDP by 2.4% - they project that with this provincewide split, the NDP would take 26 seats and the OLP would take 13 (with 11 tossups) and the PCs would romp to a majority with 73 seats.

https://twitter.com/elxnometre/status/1525498671772717057?s=21&t=dm5MaUrQyXhXfaEMb72RSw

Let's not forget that in the 2011 federal election in Ontario the NDP took 25.8% and the Liberals took 25.3% - but the NDP took 22 seats and the Liberals just 11.

Would be far from the first time such a thing had happened provincially: the CCF/NDP came third in votes but still made Official Opposition in 1948 & 1975.

[DL]

The story in Ontario is that while the CCF/NDP has occasionally become official opposition, they have never done for two elections in a row. The CCF became official opposition in 1943, then 3rd in 1945, then OO in 1948, then back to third in 1951, the OO again in 1975 and then back to 3rd (by 1 seat) in 1977. Of course one exception to this was 1987 when the NDP became official opposition to the Liberals and then WON in 1990!

Ontarians and the media and punditocracy tend to react the the NDP coming in second as if it was some fluke or flash in the pan...in 2018 the NDP took 40 seats and the Liberals took 7 and the refrain is always (oh people were just mad at Kathleen Wynne but deep down they were still Liberals). I have a hunch that the PCs will win a majority and the Liberals will have a bit of a "dead cat bounce" from 2018 - but in seats we may have the NDP around 30 seats and the Libs back in the teens - and then it will not longer be a fluke that the Liberals are the third party in Ontario. My pie in the sky prediction after that is Horwath retires, Marit Stiles is acclaimed as the new ONDP leader and she becomes premier after the 2026 election!

[King of Kensington]

Its interesting to note just how inefficient the Liberal vote is in Ontario when its at relatively low levels. The latest topline numbers from the Mainstreet daily tracking has the PCs at 36%, the Liberals dropping to 26.8% and the NDP rising to 24.4% - with the OLP leading the ONDP by 2.4% - they project that with this provincewide split, the NDP would take 26 seats and the OLP would take 13 (with 11 tossups) and the PCs would romp to a majority with 73 seats.

https://twitter.com/elxnometre/status/1525498671772717057?s=21&t=dm5MaUrQyXhXfaEMb72RSw

Let's not forget that in the 2011 federal election in Ontario the NDP took 25.8% and the Liberals took 25.3% - but the NDP took 22 seats and the Liberals just 11.

So the Tories aren't far off when they're gloating about the NDP getting 25 seats and the Liberals 10 seats.

[Oryxslayer]

Its interesting to note just how inefficient the Liberal vote is in Ontario when its at relatively low levels. The latest topline numbers from the Mainstreet daily tracking has the PCs at 36%, the Liberals dropping to 26.8% and the NDP rising to 24.4% - with the OLP leading the ONDP by 2.4% - they project that with this provincewide split, the NDP would take 26 seats and the OLP would take 13 (with 11 tossups) and the PCs would romp to a majority with 73 seats.

https://twitter.com/elxnometre/status/1525498671772717057?s=21&t=dm5MaUrQyXhXfaEMb72RSw

Let's not forget that in the 2011 federal election in Ontario the NDP took 25.8% and the Liberals took 25.3% - but the NDP took 22 seats and the Liberals just 11.

So the Tories aren't far off when they're gloating about the NDP getting 25 seats and the Liberals 10 seats.

Just popping in to note that universal(or weighted) swing may not be the best thing to base ones seat model on here, given the unusualness of the 2017 results.

[DL]

The Mainstreet seat projection model is based on regional swings and not on just the province wide swing fwiw

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

The Mainstreet seat projection model is based on regional swings and not on just the province wide swing fwiw

Which might be able to better capture regional trends, but there's a higher MoE because the sample sizes are obviously smaller

[toaster]

Re Timmins & Parry Sound-Muskoka

Timmins --> Easiest riding to campaign in the province since it's relatively small geographically AND in terms of population (40k ish) after the 2 New Northern ridings were created.  Any remaining Liberals are pretty much die hards (only got 8% of the vote last time), most would have jumped to NDP/Con in the last election.  Despite that even if you give those 8% of voters to the PCs, they still fall short. It's more about how much of an ONDP --> PC swing happens, might happen. Still too hard to say.

Parry Sound-Muskoka --> I think it's the perfect storm here for the Greens.  Not only will the Liberal voters change to Green, it might actually also have an effect on would-be NDP voters to swap to Green seeing as now there's one clear alternative. The PC Candidate is not an incumbent, so there's an opportunity to get former PC voters too. The new PC Candidate is also not the most attractive guy, this shouldn't matter, but these things do tend to affect voters.  If you look at Graydon Smith, and then Matt Richter, the people of Muskoka especially the skiers, wakeboarder, under 40s who are all about active lifestyles, will not be moving for Smith.

[adma]

Re Timmins & Parry Sound-Muskoka

Timmins --> Easiest riding to campaign in the province since it's relatively small geographically AND in terms of population (40k ish) after the 2 New Northern ridings were created.  Any remaining Liberals are pretty much die hards (only got 8% of the vote last time), most would have jumped to NDP/Con in the last election.  Despite that even if you give those 8% of voters to the PCs, they still fall short. It's more about how much of an ONDP --> PC swing happens, might happen. Still too hard to say.

Parry Sound-Muskoka --> I think it's the perfect storm here for the Greens.  Not only will the Liberal voters change to Green, it might actually also have an effect on would-be NDP voters to swap to Green seeing as now there's one clear alternative. The PC Candidate is not an incumbent, so there's an opportunity to get former PC voters too. The new PC Candidate is also not the most attractive guy, this shouldn't matter, but these things do tend to affect voters.  If you look at Graydon Smith, and then Matt Richter, the people of Muskoka especially the skiers, wakeboarder, under 40s who are all about active lifestyles, will not be moving for Smith.

Actually, I'd almost argue that Graydon Smith *does* have a sort of "attractiveness"--that is, if electing an MPP who bears an uncanny resemblance to Peter Griffin is your thing.  (And when push comes to shove: sure, Muskoka might project "active lifestyle" to the outside observer, but the silent majority/plurality of PSM's constituents are, well, "folks", to use that Doug Ford-ism.)

[adma]

The story in Ontario is that while the CCF/NDP has occasionally become official opposition, they have never done for two elections in a row. The CCF became official opposition in 1943, then 3rd in 1945, then OO in 1948, then back to third in 1951, the OO again in 1975 and then back to 3rd (by 1 seat) in 1977. Of course one exception to this was 1987 when the NDP became official opposition to the Liberals and then WON in 1990!

Ontarians and the media and punditocracy tend to react the the NDP coming in second as if it was some fluke or flash in the pan...in 2018 the NDP took 40 seats and the Liberals took 7 and the refrain is always (oh people were just mad at Kathleen Wynne but deep down they were still Liberals). I have a hunch that the PCs will win a majority and the Liberals will have a bit of a "dead cat bounce" from 2018 - but in seats we may have the NDP around 30 seats and the Libs back in the teens - and then it will not longer be a fluke that the Liberals are the third party in Ontario. My pie in the sky prediction after that is Horwath retires, Marit Stiles is acclaimed as the new ONDP leader and she becomes premier after the 2026 election!

I wouldn't jump *too* much to conclusions there (after all, who knows who'll be leading the Libs in '26)--however, the OLP should have known going into this election that given the scale of their '18 defeat, recovery *could* be, at least when it comes to seat numbers, not a single-stage process.  And that even their present apparently favourable polling figures are exceptionally soft.  But of course, if they were assuming that they'd be "obviously" roaring back to a clear and obvious Official Opposition status under Del Duca right *now*--as opposed to a more equivocal '75/77-type result, which'd open up those "anti-Ford coalition government" possibilities but, y'know, is a bit more complicated than the Libs having the upper hand...

What'd probably be most dismaying to the Liberal camp is the likelihood of Horwath's relinquishing her leadership *not* being a knives-out-for-her affair; but a rather civil passing of the baton (to Stiles or whomever else)

[King of Kensington]

Del Duca is not going to even win Woodbridge, is he?

[King of Kensington]

I wouldn't jump *too* much to conclusions there (after all, who knows who'll be leading the Libs in '26)--however, the OLP should have known going into this election that given the scale of their '18 defeat, recovery *could* be, at least when it comes to seat numbers, not a single-stage process.  And that even their present apparently favourable polling figures are exceptionally soft.  But of course, if they were assuming that they'd be "obviously" roaring back to a clear and obvious Official Opposition status under Del Duca right *now*--as opposed to a more equivocal '75/77-type result, which'd open up those "anti-Ford coalition government" possibilities but, y'know, is a bit more complicated than the Libs having the upper hand...

What'd probably be most dismaying to the Liberal camp is the likelihood of Horwath's relinquishing her leadership *not* being a knives-out-for-her affair; but a rather civil passing of the baton (to Stiles or whomever else)

Well unlike in the 2015 federal election, there is no major desire for change and Del Duca is no Trudeau.

[Central Lake]

Del Duca is not going to even win Woodbridge, is he?

He could win it but the Conservatives are favoured to hold it.

[Hatman 🍁]

Re Timmins & Parry Sound-Muskoka

Timmins --> Easiest riding to campaign in the province since it's relatively small geographically AND in terms of population (40k ish) after the 2 New Northern ridings were created.  Any remaining Liberals are pretty much die hards (only got 8% of the vote last time), most would have jumped to NDP/Con in the last election.  Despite that even if you give those 8% of voters to the PCs, they still fall short. It's more about how much of an ONDP --> PC swing happens, might happen. Still too hard to say.

Parry Sound-Muskoka --> I think it's the perfect storm here for the Greens.  Not only will the Liberal voters change to Green, it might actually also have an effect on would-be NDP voters to swap to Green seeing as now there's one clear alternative. The PC Candidate is not an incumbent, so there's an opportunity to get former PC voters too. The new PC Candidate is also not the most attractive guy, this shouldn't matter, but these things do tend to affect voters.  If you look at Graydon Smith, and then Matt Richter, the people of Muskoka especially the skiers, wakeboarder, under 40s who are all about active lifestyles, will not be moving for Smith.

Actually, I'd almost argue that Graydon Smith *does* have a sort of "attractiveness"--that is, if electing an MPP who bears an uncanny resemblance to Peter Griffin is your thing.  (And when push comes to shove: sure, Muskoka might project "active lifestyle" to the outside observer, but the silent majority/plurality of PSM's constituents are, well, "folks", to use that Doug Ford-ism.)

He's also another mayor (in the largest municipality in the riding too) who has decided to run for the Tories, so he certainly has some appeal to locals.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

Del Duca is not going to even win Woodbridge, is he?

All the fundamentals suggest that Woodbridge should be a pretty easy PC hold in this election, except for the major factor that a leader is running there. He did get swept in 2018, but used to get very strong results before (I remember in 2018 people genuinely thought Woodbridge would be competitive). Del Duca's a Woodbridge boy, certainly no parachute candidate, and has represented it before. That said, Woodbridge is also Ford Nation.

I wonder how Highway 413 will play into votes here. I'm pretty sure it runs through the riding. Of course the highway is very controversial, and maybe a strange alliance of environmentalists and NIMBYs will prop up Del Duca here. But I would assume the 413 also has a lot of support among commuters in the region, probably outnumbering the anti-413 crowd. If you're stuck in GTA traffic and hear that one guy wants to build you a shiny new road, and the other guy doesn't, you're more likely to prefer the former.

Edit: I'll also add that, while I don't live in Woodbridge nor plan to vote Liberal, if I did live in the riding, I'd find it endearing that Del Duca took the risk of throwing himself into a hard-to-win race in his hometown, instead of running off to a safe seat. Doubt that will make much of a difference on e-day, but who knows?

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

I wouldn't jump *too* much to conclusions there (after all, who knows who'll be leading the Libs in '26)--however, the OLP should have known going into this election that given the scale of their '18 defeat, recovery *could* be, at least when it comes to seat numbers, not a single-stage process.  And that even their present apparently favourable polling figures are exceptionally soft.  But of course, if they were assuming that they'd be "obviously" roaring back to a clear and obvious Official Opposition status under Del Duca right *now*--as opposed to a more equivocal '75/77-type result, which'd open up those "anti-Ford coalition government" possibilities but, y'know, is a bit more complicated than the Libs having the upper hand...

What'd probably be most dismaying to the Liberal camp is the likelihood of Horwath's relinquishing her leadership *not* being a knives-out-for-her affair; but a rather civil passing of the baton (to Stiles or whomever else)

Well unlike in the 2015 federal election, there is no major desire for change and Del Duca is no Trudeau.

I think the fact that progressives are counting on "hey mayyyybe Ford doesn't get a majority and we can coalition him out of office" as their main hope while seat projections are showing an increase from 2018 shows that this is not comparable to 2015 federal. I don't think anyone expected Harper to get a majority in 2015. That race was neck-and-neck throughout, this one is not (yet, but I suspect it will stay this way)

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

Actually, I'd almost argue that Graydon Smith *does* have a sort of "attractiveness"--that is, if electing an MPP who bears an uncanny resemblance to Peter Griffin is your thing.

"Hey Lois! I'm gonna be a politician in Canada!"

"Peetah! You don't even live in Canada!

[King of Kensington]

Del Duca is not going to even win Woodbridge, is he?

All the fundamentals suggest that Woodbridge should be a pretty easy PC hold in this election, except for the major factor that a leader is running there. He did get swept in 2018, but used to get very strong results before (I remember in 2018 people genuinely thought Woodbridge would be competitive). Del Duca's a Woodbridge boy, certainly no parachute candidate, and has represented it before. That said, Woodbridge is also Ford Nation.

Yeah I remember those, saying he'd be among the surviving 7-10 Libs.  Some universal swing models have him competitive because the margin in 2014 was deceptively large.  Or because "Italians are Liberals" (lol).

He didn't even lose in a semi-dignified way, Sousa/Flynn kind of way (Mississauga-Lakeshore and Oakville).  It was a blowout.

[adma]

Del Duca is not going to even win Woodbridge, is he?

All the fundamentals suggest that Woodbridge should be a pretty easy PC hold in this election, except for the major factor that a leader is running there. He did get swept in 2018, but used to get very strong results before (I remember in 2018 people genuinely thought Woodbridge would be competitive). Del Duca's a Woodbridge boy, certainly no parachute candidate, and has represented it before. That said, Woodbridge is also Ford Nation.

Yeah I remember those, saying he'd be among the surviving 7-10 Libs.  Some universal swing models have him competitive because the margin in 2014 was deceptively large.  Or because "Italians are Liberals" (lol).

He didn't even lose in a semi-dignified way, Sousa/Flynn kind of way (Mississauga-Lakeshore and Oakville).  It was a blowout.

Well, he still had over 30%--but that was more the dead cat bounce of where he was coming from.  That is, conventional "historical" wisdom had Vaughan-Woodbridge far more on the Libs' plate than Oakville or Mississauga-Lakeshore (the predecessors which went Tory or near-Tory in '87's annus horribilis).

[adma]

I wouldn't jump *too* much to conclusions there (after all, who knows who'll be leading the Libs in '26)--however, the OLP should have known going into this election that given the scale of their '18 defeat, recovery *could* be, at least when it comes to seat numbers, not a single-stage process.  And that even their present apparently favourable polling figures are exceptionally soft.  But of course, if they were assuming that they'd be "obviously" roaring back to a clear and obvious Official Opposition status under Del Duca right *now*--as opposed to a more equivocal '75/77-type result, which'd open up those "anti-Ford coalition government" possibilities but, y'know, is a bit more complicated than the Libs having the upper hand...

What'd probably be most dismaying to the Liberal camp is the likelihood of Horwath's relinquishing her leadership *not* being a knives-out-for-her affair; but a rather civil passing of the baton (to Stiles or whomever else)

Well unlike in the 2015 federal election, there is no major desire for change and Del Duca is no Trudeau.

I think the fact that progressives are counting on "hey mayyyybe Ford doesn't get a majority and we can coalition him out of office" as their main hope while seat projections are showing an increase from 2018 shows that this is not comparable to 2015 federal. I don't think anyone expected Harper to get a majority in 2015. That race was neck-and-neck throughout, this one is not (yet, but I suspect it will stay this way)

Which is why I spoke of coalition presently in more passive-likelihood terms, because it actually seems like that earlier "progressive coalition talk" has subsided--in part because it'd be like wishy-washy campaigning out of both sides of the mouth.  Thus Andrea's playing to win, because she's already got the seat numbers--but the Del Duca Libs are *also* playing to win, because they have the apparent polling numbers.  And I don't think there's been *any* thought of a '75/77 result whatsoever...

[Hatman 🍁]

Del Duca is not going to even win Woodbridge, is he?

All the fundamentals suggest that Woodbridge should be a pretty easy PC hold in this election, except for the major factor that a leader is running there. He did get swept in 2018, but used to get very strong results before (I remember in 2018 people genuinely thought Woodbridge would be competitive). Del Duca's a Woodbridge boy, certainly no parachute candidate, and has represented it before. That said, Woodbridge is also Ford Nation.

I wonder how Highway 413 will play into votes here. I'm pretty sure it runs through the riding. Of course the highway is very controversial, and maybe a strange alliance of environmentalists and NIMBYs will prop up Del Duca here. But I would assume the 413 also has a lot of support among commuters in the region, probably outnumbering the anti-413 crowd. If you're stuck in GTA traffic and hear that one guy wants to build you a shiny new road, and the other guy doesn't, you're more likely to prefer the former.

Edit: I'll also add that, while I don't live in Woodbridge nor plan to vote Liberal, if I did live in the riding, I'd find it endearing that Del Duca took the risk of throwing himself into a hard-to-win race in his hometown, instead of running off to a safe seat. Doubt that will make much of a difference on e-day, but who knows?

Well, it's an easy out for him if he loses his riding. I think whether or not he wins his own riding or not would make for an easy indicator as to whether Liberals will tolerate him as leader for the next four years.