Ontario Election 2022

[DL]

Should be noted that we've had a couple of provincial by-elections recently in ridings with high Indigenous populations, and we've seen a large drop in the NDP vote there, so Kiiwetinoong  may be closer than anticipated.

None in Ontario and none with a very high profile incumbent running for re-election...But as i said these northern seats are so personality based. The Ontario Liberals currently hold Thunder Bay-Superior North  (100% because of the personal popularity of Mike Gravelle). Now that he is not running again, I would not bet money on the Liberals retaining that seat even if they province wide popular vote goes up 10 points compared to 2018.

[Hatman 🍁]

Mainstreet poll out today has the NDP ahead in St. Catharines. Very interesting if true. Also an earlier poll has the NDP only back 1 in Ottawa West-Nepean.  OWN seems like it's getting more and more progressive these days.

It's crazy to think that John Baird was consistently elected under virtually the same boundaries as OWN. Suburban Ottawa has definitely shifted left rapidly.

True, though OWN is a 'suburb' in the same way Scarborough or North York is.

Should be noted that we've had a couple of provincial by-elections recently in ridings with high Indigenous populations, and we've seen a large drop in the NDP vote there, so Kiiwetinoong  may be closer than anticipated.

None in Ontario and none with a very high profile incumbent running for re-election...But as i said these northern seats are so personality based. The Ontario Liberals currently hold Thunder Bay-Superior North  (100% because of the personal popularity of Mike Gravelle). Now that he is not running again, I would not bet money on the Liberals retaining that seat even if they province wide popular vote goes up 10 points compared to 2018.

I mean, how high profile was Georgina Jolibois? She should have won that seat.

I agree that Gravelle was very popular in his riding, but TBSN contains the more Liberal part Thunder Bay (Port Arthur), so I think the Liberals are still favoured to keep it.

[King of Kensington]

Port Arthur from what was from I understand was the more "Finnish" part as well as the of the Lakehead, and a bit more affluent and older.  Fort William more frontierish, and more Italian and Ukrainian.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

Mainstreet poll out today has the NDP ahead in St. Catharines. Very interesting if true. Also an earlier poll has the NDP only back 1 in Ottawa West-Nepean.  OWN seems like it's getting more and more progressive these days.

It's crazy to think that John Baird was consistently elected under virtually the same boundaries as OWN. Suburban Ottawa has definitely shifted left rapidly.

True, though OWN is a 'suburb' in the same way Scarborough or North York is.

I find that pretty interesting about Ottawa's older suburbs, there's a lot of socio-economic diversity. But a mix of low-income immigrants in high-rise towers and middle-class government workers is a pretty bad fit for Ford's PCs - not to mention the Franco-Ontarian factor, which probably eliminates any chances of flipping Orleans. I still expect them to hold Carleton, Kanata-Carleton and Nepean, but OWN is probably gone, unless the NDP-OLP split is particularly deadly.

[King of Kensington]

The PCs took OWN with less than 1/3 of the vote in an almost perfect three-way split.  Had the NDP taken it would be the choice of the "liberal minded."  Now it may flip back to the Liberals since they weren't far behind.

[Hatman 🍁]

Mainstreet poll out today has the NDP ahead in St. Catharines. Very interesting if true. Also an earlier poll has the NDP only back 1 in Ottawa West-Nepean.  OWN seems like it's getting more and more progressive these days.

It's crazy to think that John Baird was consistently elected under virtually the same boundaries as OWN. Suburban Ottawa has definitely shifted left rapidly.

True, though OWN is a 'suburb' in the same way Scarborough or North York is.

I find that pretty interesting about Ottawa's older suburbs, there's a lot of socio-economic diversity. But a mix of low-income immigrants in high-rise towers and middle-class government workers is a pretty bad fit for Ford's PCs - not to mention the Franco-Ontarian factor, which probably eliminates any chances of flipping Orleans. I still expect them to hold Carleton, Kanata-Carleton and Nepean, but OWN is probably gone, unless the NDP-OLP split is particularly deadly.

Kanata and Nepean (which is mostly Barrhaven) are more 'true' suburbs, though they are trending left (read: Liberal) as well. Of course, west of the Rideau, the Franco population isn't particularly significant, so the ingrained Liberal vote is weaker. Might explain why the NDP did better in OWN in 2018 than in Ottawa-Vanier or Ottawa South, the former I thought the NDP would have had a better shot at the time.

[King of Kensington]

Kanata/Barrhaven = NOVA, OWN and Ottawa South = Silver Spring.

[adma]

Mainstreet poll out today has the NDP ahead in St. Catharines. Very interesting if true. Also an earlier poll has the NDP only back 1 in Ottawa West-Nepean.  OWN seems like it's getting more and more progressive these days.

It's crazy to think that John Baird was consistently elected under virtually the same boundaries as OWN. Suburban Ottawa has definitely shifted left rapidly.

True, though OWN is a 'suburb' in the same way Scarborough or North York is.

I find that pretty interesting about Ottawa's older suburbs, there's a lot of socio-economic diversity. But a mix of low-income immigrants in high-rise towers and middle-class government workers is a pretty bad fit for Ford's PCs - not to mention the Franco-Ontarian factor, which probably eliminates any chances of flipping Orleans. I still expect them to hold Carleton, Kanata-Carleton and Nepean, but OWN is probably gone, unless the NDP-OLP split is particularly deadly.

Kanata and Nepean (which is mostly Barrhaven) are more 'true' suburbs, though they are trending left (read: Liberal) as well. Of course, west of the Rideau, the Franco population isn't particularly significant, so the ingrained Liberal vote is weaker. Might explain why the NDP did better in OWN in 2018 than in Ottawa-Vanier or Ottawa South, the former I thought the NDP would have had a better shot at the time.

It might also be said that given the present-day (and probable future-day) Nepean draw, Lisa MacLeod would be endangered if it were more of a PC-unfavourable election.  And as for John Baird: even *he* never won OWN with/by terribly much (i.e. w/43-45% of the vote, even in supposedly Tory-favourable '11), so the seeds of future vulnerability were already there...

[adma]

Scarborough Southwest is perhaps the most interesting.  As I said before, Doly Begum's win was quite decisive, it wasn't an "come up the middle" victory like YSW and Humber.  Does Duverger's Law work in her favor there? 

I really think Doly Begum was one of the ONDP's most underrated sleeper successes of '18--it seems like she just hit the ground running, ran to win, almost like a demonstration project for the party's urban/suburban strategy that year; and unlike YSW or HRBC, the party didn't even have a foundation of '14 overachievement-in-loss to build upon.  However, it *is* the successor riding to Stephen Lewis's 70s stronghold; and maybe, in a way, Begum perfected an ethno-millennial update on Lewis-style grassroots campaigning--like, she truly deserves more credit than she usually gets...

[King of Kensington]

Incidentally Scarborough SW is safer for the NDP than its whiter, more Brahmin-y neighbor of Beaches-East York given that Doly Begum has incumbency, while B-EY is an open seat and MMM has the most name recognition.

[King of Kensington]

Speaking of "Brahmin liberalism":

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=493895.0

[toaster]

Controversy in Etobicoke-Centre.  Will DelDuca remove the Liberal candidate here for the homophobic comments (like he did in the other Non-winnable ridings)?  Or because they have a shot here, will he keep the candidate?

Also, did the Liberals re-nominate in Parry Sound Muskoka?  If not, could the Greens have a shot here?

[King of Kensington]

Not looking good, as that's a seat they can certainly win.

[Hatman 🍁]

No Liberal candidates in Timmins and Parry Sound-Muskoka. I think this helps the Tories in the former (especially since they are running a former mayor) and the Greens in the latter. 

[DL]

No Liberal candidates in Timmins and Parry Sound-Muskoka. I think this helps the Tories in the former (especially since they are running a former mayor) and the Greens in the latter. 

Why would the absence of a Liberal in Timmins help the Tories when according to every poll the second choice of Liberal voters is NDP over PC by about a 5 to 1 margin.

The latest Earnscliffe poll says among current OLP voters 62% have the NDP as second choice and just 5% have the PCs as second choice. https://earnscliffe.ca/insight/on-election-polling-tracking-ontario-voters-shifting-support-3/

I know that many generations ago there was this pattern of Liberal and PC votes being interchangeable in order to "save free enterprise" - but these days everything is polarized around whether people support Ford or not I have to think that it can only hurt the PCs to face only one opposition candidate.

[Hatman 🍁]

No Liberal candidates in Timmins and Parry Sound-Muskoka. I think this helps the Tories in the former (especially since they are running a former mayor) and the Greens in the latter.  

Why would the absence of a Liberal in Timmins help the Tories when according to every poll the second choice of Liberal voters is NDP over PC by about a 5 to 1 margin.

The latest Earnscliffe poll says among current OLP voters 62% have the NDP as second choice and just 5% have the PCs as second choice. https://earnscliffe.ca/insight/on-election-polling-tracking-ontario-voters-shifting-support-3/

I know that many generations ago there was this pattern of Liberal and PC votes being interchangeable in order to "save free enterprise" - but these days everything is polarized around whether people support Ford or not I have to think that it can only hurt the PCs to face only one opposition candidate.

Because it's Northern Ontario. The NDP vote in the riding is usually pretty constant, while the Liberals and Tories trade votes back and forth. Just look at how the riding has voted in recent elections. And that's not unique to Timmins, it's a phenomena across Northern Ontario.

[DL]

No Liberal candidates in Timmins and Parry Sound-Muskoka. I think this helps the Tories in the former (especially since they are running a former mayor) and the Greens in the latter.  

Why would the absence of a Liberal in Timmins help the Tories when according to every poll the second choice of Liberal voters is NDP over PC by about a 5 to 1 margin.

The latest Earnscliffe poll says among current OLP voters 62% have the NDP as second choice and just 5% have the PCs as second choice. https://earnscliffe.ca/insight/on-election-polling-tracking-ontario-voters-shifting-support-3/

I know that many generations ago there was this pattern of Liberal and PC votes being interchangeable in order to "save free enterprise" - but these days everything is polarized around whether people support Ford or not I have to think that it can only hurt the PCs to face only one opposition candidate.

Because it's Northern Ontario. The NDP vote in the riding is usually pretty constant, while the Liberals and Tories trade votes back and forth. Just look at how the riding has voted in recent elections. And that's not unique to Timmins, it's a phenomena across Northern Ontario.

Its hard to say...the Liberal vote in Timmins in 2018 was only 9% and who knows who those people would have voted for with no Liberal on the ballot. But I tend to think that if the Liberals had a candidate and ran a serious campaign in Timmins it would cut into the NDP vote more than the PC vote because the Liberals are running to the left this election with an explicitly anti-Ford message. Del Duca and Horwath have practically said they would form an accord to dump the PCs if the PCs lost their majority. Also the Liberal vote that falls away in Timmins when they drop from 33% to 10% may be quite different from that hard core 10% who voted OLP even when Wynne was leading then to cataclysmic defeat in 2018...

[Hatman 🍁]

Based on past results in the area, I'd say this is how the Timmins electorate is split

30% NDP base
15% Promiscuous progressives (always vote Liberal except when the NDP's ahead)
10% Populist voters (usually vote NDP or PC, but may vote New Blue this time)
25% Liberal to Tory swing voters
10% Tory base
10% Liberal base

So, I think it's safe to say the NDP will get a minimum of 45% of the vote (first two categories), and the Tories will get a minimum of 35% of the vote. From the polling I've seen, "base Liberal voters" usually prefer the NDP over the Tories, but I'm not convinced that's the case in Timmins. It's also unknown what the personal popularity of former mayor George Pirie is. That might eat into the NDP vote a bit. Bottom line is, the NDP has the advantage, but the Tories do have a narrow path to victory.

[Hatman 🍁]

For Parry Sound-Muskoka:

Green base: 5%
Persuadable Greens: 15% (a good chunk of this are NDP swing voters)
Promiscuous progressives: 10%
Tory base: 40%
NDP base: 10%
Liberal base: 10%
Liberal-Tory swing voters: 10%

So, I don't think the Greens have a path to victory, unless they're able to win over Liberal-Tory swing voters.

[adma]

For Parry Sound-Muskoka:

Green base: 5%
Persuadable Greens: 15% (a good chunk of this are NDP swing voters)
Promiscuous progressives: 10%
Tory base: 40%
NDP base: 10%
Liberal base: 10%
Liberal-Tory swing voters: 10%

So, I don't think the Greens have a path to victory, unless they're able to win over Liberal-Tory swing voters.

But they nonetheless have a path to Liberal proxy, i.e. win or lose, this is a provincial version of a "Mike Morrice" wet dream situation.  Like, this was *already* their top 2nd-seat-in-the-Legislature target--and you can be sure now that there's some kind of Red/Green campaign-coalition deal in the works.

Indeed, PSM has already been a node for a Red/Green crossover dynamic: Richard Thomas, who came within 6 votes of defeating "Landslide Ernie" Eves in 1981 and then ran for the provincial Liberal leadership in '82, went on to join the Green Party and become by far their most successful candidate in Ontario into the beginning of this century...

[DL]

But they nonetheless have a path to Liberal proxy, i.e. win or lose, this is a provincial version of a "Mike Morrice" wet dream situation.  Like, this was *already* their top 2nd-seat-in-the-Legislature target--and you can be sure now that there's some kind of Red/Green campaign-coalition deal in the works.

Indeed, PSM has already been a node for a Red/Green crossover dynamic: Richard Thomas, who came within 6 votes of defeating "Landslide Ernie" Eves in 1981 and then ran for the provincial Liberal leadership in '82, went on to join the Green Party and become by far their most successful candidate in Ontario into the beginning of this century...

All Greens need to win PSM is for some scandal to cause the PCs to have to disown their candidate two weeks before the election!

[adma]

But they nonetheless have a path to Liberal proxy, i.e. win or lose, this is a provincial version of a "Mike Morrice" wet dream situation.  Like, this was *already* their top 2nd-seat-in-the-Legislature target--and you can be sure now that there's some kind of Red/Green campaign-coalition deal in the works.

Indeed, PSM has already been a node for a Red/Green crossover dynamic: Richard Thomas, who came within 6 votes of defeating "Landslide Ernie" Eves in 1981 and then ran for the provincial Liberal leadership in '82, went on to join the Green Party and become by far their most successful candidate in Ontario into the beginning of this century...

All Greens need to win PSM is for some scandal to cause the PCs to have to disown their candidate two weeks before the election!

That's why I stopped short of declaring "path to victory".  Or, given the kind of riding it is, Matt Richter is more of a Shane Jolley than a Mike Morrice in practice...

[adma]

As promised, here's a graph of polls for the first week of the campaign; trendlines carry forward three days from the final figures, which can come in handy for making final forecasts in the last couple days but aren't particularly significant at the moment.

Looking back at this chart, through the individual poll indicators I can't see how this indicates a north-of-40-PC/south-of-20 NDP trendline--or it's like there's "liberties" taken in drawing said trendlines...

[King of Kensington]

Did a walk of University-Rosedale today on two north-south streets covering the riding just to see the signage in the western end and in the Annex. FWIW I'd say NDP incumbent Jessica Bell has a lead, Dianne Saxe of the Greens was second and the Liberal candidate a decent third (only saw 2 PCs, not surprising).  Not that signs vote. 

[Хahar 🤔]

As promised, here's a graph of polls for the first week of the campaign; trendlines carry forward three days from the final figures, which can come in handy for making final forecasts in the last couple days but aren't particularly significant at the moment.

Looking back at this chart, through the individual poll indicators I can't see how this indicates a north-of-40-PC/south-of-20 NDP trendline--or it's like there's "liberties" taken in drawing said trendlines...

I don't know the specific math used to calculate the trendline, but it looks like what I would expect. This is how extrapolation works; there's a slight upward trend in the PC vote over the week shown and the exponential algorithm naturally projects that trend to accelerate. The fact that the results look so strange is why you should not take it seriously right now, as DistingFlyer notes himself.