Ontario Election 2022

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

That said, let's not be too hasty to write the NDP's obituary. The campaign has barely kicked off.

[King of Kensington]

Mainstreet poll:

PCs  36%
Liberals  30%
NDP  24%
Greens  5%
others  5%

https://twitter.com/CanadianPolling/status/1523396066346950656

So it looks like 10 points on the opposition side has swung from the NDP to the Liberals.  Tories down a bit, and may be some leakage on the far right.  But the "anti-lockdown" crowd doesn't seem to really have its act together and the movement increasingly looks more like a carnival with dwindling interest as most of "the mandates" are gone and people have moved on.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

Mainstreet poll:

PCs  36%
Liberals  30%
NDP  24%
Greens  5%
others  5%

https://twitter.com/CanadianPolling/status/1523396066346950656

So it looks like 10 points on the opposition side has swung from the NDP to the Liberals.  Tories down a bit, and may be some leakage on the far right.  But the "anti-lockdown" crowd doesn't seem to really have its act together and the movement increasingly looks more like a carnival with dwindling interest as most of "the mandates" are gone and people have moved on.

I think Ford's best chance at getting those True Blue/Ontario Party voters back is by making Del Duca look scary. He can't credibly pivot to an anti-"mandate" position (and if he did he would lose more support out the other end), but when you have Del Duca promising things like mandatory COVID vax for students for example, it's not hard to make the case to the right-of-PC supporters that any chance at a Liberal government must be stopped. On top of that, the Liberal-NDP deal at the federal level raises the stakes, because a PC minority may mean a Liberal-NDP coalition, and I'm sure the right-of-PC bloc would prefer four years of Ford over four years of Del Duca propped up by Horwath or the reverse.

[Central Lake]

I don't think PCs will leak that much to the right. In addition to most of the COVID-related mandates being lifted, Doug Ford won't say things like

"This is not your dad's conservative party anymore"

[toaster]

Is there a way to watch the Northern Debate online?  I believe it starts at 1pm this afternoon.

[King of Kensington]

The best shot the "anti-mandate" crowd has is Rick Nichols in Chatham, where he has incumbency and it was the best result for the PPC in Ontario. That riding is about as "Trumpy" as Ontario gets (rust belt-ish and Bible belt-ish).

[adma]

COVID also had a "reset" effect I think. For the past two years, your average Ontario voter was mostly tuning into provincial politics to get the COVID updates, new measures, etc, which Ford and his cabinet were doing basically unilaterally. Some were popular, some unpopular, but it was very much about the government, people didn't have much time for an opposition that effectively couldn't do anything. So the fact that the Liberals had 7 seats to the NDP's 40 didn't really matter. In the end, it was Ford vs not Ford, which leveled the non-Ford playing field, which really was an advantage to the Liberals because they're Ontario's traditional non-PC party.

Yeah, ironically, a pandemic's just the thing to play into Doug's "I'm in charge here" hands.

And as for traditional advantages, I'm already sensing this election spun in terms of Ford landslide simply on grounds of his "defeating" Del Duca, while the NDP's treading water because that's all they ever do, tread water, that's the official media narrative.  "Officially", it's still a Doug vs Del Duca race, and the polling's meant to bear that out.  By that telling, you'd almost think it's the Libs who came out of '18 with 40 seats, and the NDP with 7--and according to said "official media narrative", that's the way it *should* have been...

[DL]

Its still early in the campaign but at this stage my sense is that there really isn't much of a mood for change and that the Ford PCs will win again and possibly even add to their majority. Its going to turn into mainly a battle for second place. The conventional wisdom was that one of the opposition parties would break away and consolidate the "anti-Ford vote". I'm not even sure about that. If the consensus is that the PCs are going to win no matter that creates a very different mindset among "promiscuous progressives" - more like the federal election of 2008 than 2015.

I suspect that the OLP will have somewhat of a deadcat bounce from their annihilation in 2018, but they may gain surprisingly few seats...and if the PCs are doing well in the 'burbs I think it would be an upset if Del Duca even won his own seat. The Liberals may edge out the NDP in the popular vote but the Liberal vote is very very inefficient at low levels (e.g. in the 2011 federal election the Liberals and NDP were essentially tied in the popular vote and the NDP beat the Liberals 22 seats to 11). So I think the NDP will suffer losses but still be the official opposition.

In the aftermath of the election, there will be leadership questions for the opposition parties, I don't think anyone thinks Horwath will stick around as ONDP leader and her heir apparent would be Davenport MPP Marit Stiles (who IMHO would be much, much better). For the OLP it will be more complicated. They are certain to increase their vote and seat count compared to 2018 so in a way Del Duca will be in the same position as Horwath after her first election in 2011 when she took the NDP from 10 seats to 17. I suppose a lot of depends on whether he wins his seat. If he manages to win in Vaughan-Woodbridge and the OLP gains a dozen seats, I suspect he would try to stay on. If he loses his seat and the OLP is still in 3rd place - all bets are off and his fate is more unpredictable.   

[DistingFlyer]

As promised, here's a graph of polls for the first week of the campaign; trendlines carry forward three days from the final figures, which can come in handy for making final forecasts in the last couple days but aren't particularly significant at the moment.

[King of Kensington]

Its still early in the campaign but at this stage my sense is that there really isn't much of a mood for change and that the Ford PCs will win again and possibly even add to their majority. Its going to turn into mainly a battle for second place. The conventional wisdom was that one of the opposition parties would break away and consolidate the "anti-Ford vote". I'm not even sure about that. If the consensus is that the PCs are going to win no matter that creates a very different mindset among "promiscuous progressives" - more like the federal election of 2008 than 2015.

I suspect that the OLP will have somewhat of a deadcat bounce from their annihilation in 2018, but they may gain surprisingly few seats...and if the PCs are doing well in the 'burbs I think it would be an upset if Del Duca even won his own seat. The Liberals may edge out the NDP in the popular vote but the Liberal vote is very very inefficient at low levels (e.g. in the 2011 federal election the Liberals and NDP were essentially tied in the popular vote and the NDP beat the Liberals 22 seats to 11). So I think the NDP will suffer losses but still be the official opposition.

In the aftermath of the election, there will be leadership questions for the opposition parties, I don't think anyone thinks Horwath will stick around as ONDP leader and her heir apparent would be Davenport MPP Marit Stiles (who IMHO would be much, much better). For the OLP it will be more complicated. They are certain to increase their vote and seat count compared to 2018 so in a way Del Duca will be in the same position as Horwath after her first election in 2011 when she took the NDP from 10 seats to 17. I suppose a lot of depends on whether he wins his seat. If he manages to win in Vaughan-Woodbridge and the OLP gains a dozen seats, I suspect he would try to stay on. If he loses his seat and the OLP is still in 3rd place - all bets are off and his fate is more unpredictable.   

I agree for the most part.  There is no desire for change and the opposition vote will not necessarily coalesce so easily.  And Ford does well among GTA federal Liberal voters, which could prove fatal to the OLP.  The PC vote will likely prove very efficient in the GTA, giving them most of Scarborough, Mississauga, Brampton etc.  And yes, Del Duca winning Woodbridge is by no means a slam dunk.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

Its still early in the campaign but at this stage my sense is that there really isn't much of a mood for change and that the Ford PCs will win again and possibly even add to their majority. Its going to turn into mainly a battle for second place. The conventional wisdom was that one of the opposition parties would break away and consolidate the "anti-Ford vote". I'm not even sure about that. If the consensus is that the PCs are going to win no matter that creates a very different mindset among "promiscuous progressives" - more like the federal election of 2008 than 2015.

I suspect that the OLP will have somewhat of a deadcat bounce from their annihilation in 2018, but they may gain surprisingly few seats...and if the PCs are doing well in the 'burbs I think it would be an upset if Del Duca even won his own seat. The Liberals may edge out the NDP in the popular vote but the Liberal vote is very very inefficient at low levels (e.g. in the 2011 federal election the Liberals and NDP were essentially tied in the popular vote and the NDP beat the Liberals 22 seats to 11). So I think the NDP will suffer losses but still be the official opposition.

In the aftermath of the election, there will be leadership questions for the opposition parties, I don't think anyone thinks Horwath will stick around as ONDP leader and her heir apparent would be Davenport MPP Marit Stiles (who IMHO would be much, much better). For the OLP it will be more complicated. They are certain to increase their vote and seat count compared to 2018 so in a way Del Duca will be in the same position as Horwath after her first election in 2011 when she took the NDP from 10 seats to 17. I suppose a lot of depends on whether he wins his seat. If he manages to win in Vaughan-Woodbridge and the OLP gains a dozen seats, I suspect he would try to stay on. If he loses his seat and the OLP is still in 3rd place - all bets are off and his fate is more unpredictable.   

And that's the problem for Liberals, isn't it? Their traditional path to victory is consolidating urban progressives + suburban moderates. A Tory like who doesn't say anything too crazy and spends big on highways is basically the exact kind of Tory that vanilla suburban 905ers vote for, and that's the lane Ford now occupies. Meanwhile in the urban areas, the NDP may be down in the polls but they have incumbency and a left-wing that might not consolidate around the Liberals in this election.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

As promised, here's a graph of polls for the first week of the campaign; trendlines carry forward three days from the final figures, which can come in handy for making final forecasts in the last couple days but aren't particularly significant at the moment.

Interesting, I would have thought the transfer was NDP->OLP, not NDP->PC. I know support doesn't transfer cleanly like that, but still, this defies the narrative about this election.

[DistingFlyer]

As promised, here's a graph of polls for the first week of the campaign; trendlines carry forward three days from the final figures, which can come in handy for making final forecasts in the last couple days but aren't particularly significant at the moment.

Interesting, I would have thought the transfer was NDP->OLP, not NDP->PC. I know support doesn't transfer cleanly like that, but still, this defies the narrative about this election.

The NDP fall, Tory rise & Liberal hold has been going on for a few months now (https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=453425.msg8585858#msg8585858); as you say, most people probably aren't switching directly from NDP to PC (though a few blue-collar populist types who for some reason didn't hop over to Ford last time may be doing so now) but the net effect is an interesting one.

[King of Kensington]

Outside PHP/Davenport/Danforth what is the NDP's best prospect of holding on in Toronto?  I'm guessing Toronto Centre with KWT's candidacy.  Dianne Sachs in University-Rosedale probably pulls equally from NDP and Liberal voters, so her candidacy doesn't "cost" either party the seat.  In Spadina-Fort York, I don't think Vuong will have much of an impact. 

Meanwhile it seems like Beaches-East York, St. Paul's, YSW and Humber are gone.

Scarborough Southwest is perhaps the most interesting.  As I said before, Doly Begum's win was quite decisive, it wasn't an "come up the middle" victory like YSW and Humber.  Does Duverger's Law work in her favor there? 

[King of Kensington]

The NDP fall, Tory rise & Liberal hold has been going on for a few months now (https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=453425.msg8585858#msg8585858); as you say, most people probably aren't switching directly from NDP to PC (though a few blue-collar populist types who for some reason didn't hop over to Ford last time may be doing so now) but the net effect is an interesting one.

Wayne Gates likely has enough personal popularity in Niagara Falls to hang on.  But yeah, St. Catharines, Niagara Centre, Essex and Oshawa are likely to fall to the PCs.

[Hatman 🍁]

Mainstreet poll out today has the NDP ahead in St. Catharines. Very interesting if true. Also an earlier poll has the NDP only back 1 in Ottawa West-Nepean.  OWN seems like it's getting more and more progressive these days.

Also interestingly, the PCs seem to have totally abandoned my riding of Ottawa South. I haven't seen any signs yet, and their candidate is some hapless kid. They usually have a credible candidate here, but I guess they've realized that (A) Doug Ford is not popular in Ottawa and (B) if the Tories couldn't win the seat in 2018, they never will. Weirdly, they do have signs up in Ottawa Centre, though.

[DL]

Mainstreet poll out today has the NDP ahead in St. Catharines. Very interesting if true. Also an earlier poll has the NDP only back 1 in Ottawa West-Nepean.  OWN seems like it's getting more and more progressive these days.

Oh is Mainstreet starting to do some individual riding polls? Where do you find those?

[Hatman 🍁]

They're putting them on QP briefing. Here's the St Catharines poll: https://www.qpbriefing.com/2022/05/11/riding-poll-ndp-headed-to-re-election-in-st-catharines/

[DL]

They're putting them on QP briefing. Here's the St Catharines poll: https://www.qpbriefing.com/2022/05/11/riding-poll-ndp-headed-to-re-election-in-st-catharines/

I’m pleasantly surprised since usually those riding polls by Mainstreet are highly suspect and have tended to low ball NDP support at the riding level…likely because of the near impossibility of drawing a sample that includes anyone under the age of 50!

[toaster]

Looking like with the PCs ahead in Northern Ontario, and places Timmins, Mushkegowuk-James Bay, Algoma-Manitoulin, Kiwentinoon are learning PC, we are headed to super majority status.  Looks like it could be only Gélinas and Vanthof who will be back from the Northern ONDP caucus. I think these areas have voted for Andrea for the past 3-4 elections, it's almost like the "change" vote here is Doug.  

[DL]

Looking like with the PCs ahead in Northern Ontario, and places Timmins, Mushkegowuk-James Bay, Algoma-Manitoulin, Kiwentinoon are learning PC, we are headed to super majority status.  Looks like it could be only Gélinas and Vanthof who will be back from the Northern ONDP caucus. I think these areas have voted for Andrea for the past 3-4 elections, it's almost like the "change" vote here is Doug.  

It can be very. Is leading to try to apply uniform swings to these northern ridings. Politics is much more personality based and there is a lot more loyalty to incumbents. Also a riding like Kiwetinoon is mostly Indigenous and the NDP incumbent there is very high profile

[adma]

Looking like with the PCs ahead in Northern Ontario, and places Timmins, Mushkegowuk-James Bay, Algoma-Manitoulin, Kiwentinoon are learning PC, we are headed to super majority status.  Looks like it could be only Gélinas and Vanthof who will be back from the Northern ONDP caucus. I think these areas have voted for Andrea for the past 3-4 elections, it's almost like the "change" vote here is Doug.  

It can be very. Is leading to try to apply uniform swings to these northern ridings. Politics is much more personality based and there is a lot more loyalty to incumbents. Also a riding like Kiwetinoon is mostly Indigenous and the NDP incumbent there is very high profile

And of course, the Indigenous vote is notoriously hard to poll--the Kiiwetinoong numbers could well be overly plumped in the largely WWC resource towns...

[DL]

Looking like with the PCs ahead in Northern Ontario, and places Timmins, Mushkegowuk-James Bay, Algoma-Manitoulin, Kiwentinoon are learning PC, we are headed to super majority status.  Looks like it could be only Gélinas and Vanthof who will be back from the Northern ONDP caucus. I think these areas have voted for Andrea for the past 3-4 elections, it's almost like the "change" vote here is Doug.  

It can be very. Is leading to try to apply uniform swings to these northern ridings. Politics is much more personality based and there is a lot more loyalty to incumbents. Also a riding like Kiwetinoon is mostly Indigenous and the NDP incumbent there is very high profile

And of course, the Indigenous vote is notoriously hard to poll--the Kiiwetinoong numbers could well be overly plumped in the largely WWC resource towns...

 O one has done a riding poll in Kiwetinoon there are just projections based on applying a regional swing and that can be a very crude instrument

[Hatman 🍁]

Should be noted that we've had a couple of provincial by-elections recently in ridings with high Indigenous populations, and we've seen a large drop in the NDP vote there, so Kiiwetinoong  may be closer than anticipated.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

Mainstreet poll out today has the NDP ahead in St. Catharines. Very interesting if true. Also an earlier poll has the NDP only back 1 in Ottawa West-Nepean.  OWN seems like it's getting more and more progressive these days.

It's crazy to think that John Baird was consistently elected under virtually the same boundaries as OWN. Suburban Ottawa has definitely shifted left rapidly.