Ontario Election 2022

[adma]

1948 was that very rare bird: a party winning the election but the leader losing personally. Other examples off the top of the head are Mackenzie King in 1945 (federal), Sir John A. Macdonald in 1878 (also federal), Don Getty in 1989 (Alberta) & Clyde Wells in 1989 (Newfoundland). No doubt there are plenty more.

Macdonald's loss in 1878 was perhaps the most curious: the Tories didn't just win that election, they went from opposition to government in one of their (then) biggest victories, up from one of their (then) biggest defeats in 1874, in which Macdonald had held his riding.

And Christy Clark in 2013.

Indeed; a leader's loss coinciding with an increased majority for the government is also pretty unusual.

Robert Bourassa was personally defeated *both* in the Levesque election of 1976 *and* in his successful return to power in '85.  (And Quebec saw consecutive defeated-in-their-own-seat premiers more recently: Jean Charest in 2012, and Pauline Marois in 2014.)

[Хahar 🤔]

1948 was that very rare bird: a party winning the election but the leader losing personally. Other examples off the top of the head are Mackenzie King in 1945 (federal), Sir John A. Macdonald in 1878 (also federal), Don Getty in 1989 (Alberta) & Clyde Wells in 1989 (Newfoundland). No doubt there are plenty more.

Macdonald's loss in 1878 was perhaps the most curious: the Tories didn't just win that election, they went from opposition to government in one of their (then) biggest victories, up from one of their (then) biggest defeats in 1874, in which Macdonald had held his riding.

And Christy Clark in 2013.

Indeed; a leader's loss coinciding with an increased majority for the government is also pretty unusual.

The classic example (at least in my mind) is Robert Bourassa losing his seat in 1985 amidst the Liberals winning one of the largest victories in the history of Quebec.

[DistingFlyer]

1948 was that very rare bird: a party winning the election but the leader losing personally. Other examples off the top of the head are Mackenzie King in 1945 (federal), Sir John A. Macdonald in 1878 (also federal), Don Getty in 1989 (Alberta) & Clyde Wells in 1989 (Newfoundland). No doubt there are plenty more.

Macdonald's loss in 1878 was perhaps the most curious: the Tories didn't just win that election, they went from opposition to government in one of their (then) biggest victories, up from one of their (then) biggest defeats in 1874, in which Macdonald had held his riding.

And Christy Clark in 2013.

Indeed; a leader's loss coinciding with an increased majority for the government is also pretty unusual.

The classic example (at least in my mind) is Robert Bourassa losing his seat in 1985 amidst the Liberals winning one of the largest victories in the history of Quebec.

Yes, that equals - or even exceeds - Macdonald's 1878 loss (though Bourassa's riding was a natural PQ seat that he'd only taken at a by-election).

[adma]

1948 was that very rare bird: a party winning the election but the leader losing personally. Other examples off the top of the head are Mackenzie King in 1945 (federal), Sir John A. Macdonald in 1878 (also federal), Don Getty in 1989 (Alberta) & Clyde Wells in 1989 (Newfoundland). No doubt there are plenty more.

Macdonald's loss in 1878 was perhaps the most curious: the Tories didn't just win that election, they went from opposition to government in one of their (then) biggest victories, up from one of their (then) biggest defeats in 1874, in which Macdonald had held his riding.

And Christy Clark in 2013.

Indeed; a leader's loss coinciding with an increased majority for the government is also pretty unusual.

The classic example (at least in my mind) is Robert Bourassa losing his seat in 1985 amidst the Liberals winning one of the largest victories in the history of Quebec.

Yes, that equals - or even exceeds - Macdonald's 1878 loss (though Bourassa's riding was a natural PQ seat that he'd only taken at a by-election).

Just like Christy Clark's riding was an NDP-trending seat that *she'd* only taken at a byelection.

[King of Kensington]

In every federal and provincial election since the reconfiguration of the map, the "downtown three" (Spadina-Fort York, Toronto Centre, University-Rosedale) have all voted the same way.  Will the streak continue?

In University-Rosedale, former environment commissioner and high-profile environmental lawyer Dianne Saxe is running for the Greens and is very visible.  I'm guessing she takes relatively equally from NDP and Liberal voters.

[adma]

In every federal and provincial election since the reconfiguration of the map, the "downtown three" (Spadina-Fort York, Toronto Centre, University-Rosedale) have all voted the same way.  Will the streak continue?

In University-Rosedale, former environment commissioner and high-profile environmental lawyer Dianne Saxe is running for the Greens and is very visible.  I'm guessing she takes relatively equally from NDP and Liberal voters.

Though U-R (and T-S before it) is a place where Tim Grant has typically run the most visible Green campaign in Toronto in recent years--so there's some infrastructural foundation in place.

Because of the still-relative-freshness of the "downtown 3" configuration, I'm not sure how much I'd read into the "all voting the same way" pattern--federally, the picture's been skewed by the Justin sweeps, and provincially it's been skewed by the scale of '18's promiscuous-progressive Wynne rejection.  Though in all 3, it must be said that the Libs face some significant speedbumps--in TC, KWT's candidacy; in S-FY, hangover from the federal Kevin Vuong misfire; in U-R, Saxe's candidacy as a potential non-incumbent opposition-splitter...

[King of Kensington]

4 elections in less than a decade is hardly a big "streak", I agree, particularly given there were three city-wide red sweeps federally and an inner Toronto orange sweep in 2018.

But the rather "iffy" nature of this election in terms of "progressive" opposition does raise the question of whether we'll be seeing a rather unusual map this time.  

[King of Kensington]

A more impressive streak that is likely to be break this time: Toronto's two "Jewish" ridings: Eglinton-Lawrence and York Centre.  They've voted the same way federally since Eglinton-Lawrence was created in 1979 and provincially in 1999 (and the somewhat similar old ridings of Lawrence and Wilson Heights stayed Liberal in both '90 and '95).  The main difference between the two of course is the "Brahmin" North Toronto component of Eglinton-Lawrence.  The breaking of the pattern was evident provincially in 2018 of course when there was a "Tory vs. Lib Dem" pattern in Eg-Law.  Ironically in the 80s Eg-Law would probably have gone PC if had its modern-day boundaries (since then Brahmin Liberalism, the rightwing shift of the increasingly Orthodox-dominated Jewish community and Ford Nation populism has flipped the pattern).

[toaster]

The Liberals still have not nominated a full slate of candidates, only 116, less than the Greens even (120).  The PC and ONDP both have candidates in all 124 ridings.  Some of the ridings you would think would at least be competitive Liberal ridings, like Barrie-Innisfil, Liberal Ann Hoggarth's riding prior to the last election I believe, no Liberal candidate yet.

[Independents for Nihilism]

The Liberals still have not nominated a full slate of candidates, only 116, less than the Greens even (120).  The PC and ONDP both have candidates in all 124 ridings.  Some of the ridings you would think would at least be competitive Liberal ridings, like Barrie-Innisfil, Liberal Ann Hoggarth's riding prior to the last election I believe, no Liberal candidate yet.

Hah, I lived in what's now Barrie-Innisfil for a couple of years when I was a kid, I should give the OLP a call.

[adma]

The Liberals still have not nominated a full slate of candidates, only 116, less than the Greens even (120).  The PC and ONDP both have candidates in all 124 ridings.  Some of the ridings you would think would at least be competitive Liberal ridings, like Barrie-Innisfil, Liberal Ann Hoggarth's riding prior to the last election I believe, no Liberal candidate yet.

Hah, I lived in what's now Barrie-Innisfil for a couple of years when I was a kid, I should give the OLP a call.

It wasn't so much Hoggarth's riding prior to the last election as it contained half of her old riding (the old coterminous Barrie riding having been split into two rurban entities), it was actually the less Lib-congenial of the two, and she only ran there under the presumption that Patrick Brown was running in the other one.  And in the process, she became the only Lib incumbent to lose her deposit.  (Still, given the 2nd place polling, one'd expect better than a Manitoban incomplete slate for the OLP--though yes, it's less than a week into the campaign)

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

A more impressive streak that is likely to be break this time: Toronto's two "Jewish" ridings: Eglinton-Lawrence and York Centre.  They've voted the same way federally since Eglinton-Lawrence was created in 1979 and provincially in 1999 (and the somewhat similar old ridings of Lawrence and Wilson Heights stayed Liberal in both '90 and '95).  The main difference between the two of course is the "Brahmin" North Toronto component of Eglinton-Lawrence.  The breaking of the pattern was evident provincially in 2018 of course when there was a "Tory vs. Lib Dem" pattern in Eg-Law.  Ironically in the 80s Eg-Law would probably have gone PC if had its modern-day boundaries (since then Brahmin Liberalism, the rightwing shift of the increasingly Orthodox-dominated Jewish community and Ford Nation populism has flipped the pattern).

Note that Eg-Law also has the "west of Allen" component which is less Jewish, but still very "ethnic" (Italian, Filipino, black). York Centre has this too. In recent years, this demographic has been another reason the Liberals have usually held off the Tories despite their major decline in support among Jewish Torontonians.

[adma]

A more impressive streak that is likely to be break this time: Toronto's two "Jewish" ridings: Eglinton-Lawrence and York Centre.  They've voted the same way federally since Eglinton-Lawrence was created in 1979 and provincially in 1999 (and the somewhat similar old ridings of Lawrence and Wilson Heights stayed Liberal in both '90 and '95).  The main difference between the two of course is the "Brahmin" North Toronto component of Eglinton-Lawrence.  The breaking of the pattern was evident provincially in 2018 of course when there was a "Tory vs. Lib Dem" pattern in Eg-Law.  Ironically in the 80s Eg-Law would probably have gone PC if had its modern-day boundaries (since then Brahmin Liberalism, the rightwing shift of the increasingly Orthodox-dominated Jewish community and Ford Nation populism has flipped the pattern).

Note that Eg-Law also has the "west of Allen" component which is less Jewish, but still very "ethnic" (Italian, Filipino, black). York Centre has this too. In recent years, this demographic has been another reason the Liberals have usually held off the Tories despite their major decline in support among Jewish Torontonians.

But that latter element is where the undermining effect of the aforementioned "Ford Nation populism" kicks in--those parts of Eg-Law still did generally go Lib in '18, but w/much more sluggish non-landslide shares than in the past; by my e-day calculation, W of Allen + Lawrence Heights went 39.99% Lib vs 32.54% for the Tories and 24.19% for NDP, and that's even accounting for such continued Liberal vote-sink factors as the Villa Colombo complex.  (By comparison, Mike Colle got 38.67% riding-wide.  It's only in N Toronto where his shares at large rose into the mid-to-upper-40s and beyond.)

[King of Kensington]

Yeah it was the massive underperformance west of the Allen that did Colle in.

Normally you'd probably see something like a 60-20-15 result there.

[toaster]

The Liberals still have not nominated a full slate of candidates, only 116, less than the Greens even (120).  The PC and ONDP both have candidates in all 124 ridings.  Some of the ridings you would think would at least be competitive Liberal ridings, like Barrie-Innisfil, Liberal Ann Hoggarth's riding prior to the last election I believe, no Liberal candidate yet.

Hah, I lived in what's now Barrie-Innisfil for a couple of years when I was a kid, I should give the OLP a call.

It wasn't so much Hoggarth's riding prior to the last election as it contained half of her old riding (the old coterminous Barrie riding having been split into two rurban entities), it was actually the less Lib-congenial of the two, and she only ran there under the presumption that Patrick Brown was running in the other one.  And in the process, she became the only Lib incumbent to lose her deposit.  (Still, given the 2nd place polling, one'd expect better than a Manitoban incomplete slate for the OLP--though yes, it's less than a week into the campaign)

I'd say the demographics of South Barrie have changed the riding's political leanings a bit, and I think make it more competitive than when Hoggarth won.  It's a lot of former GTA and Toronto dwellers who moved out for affordability, but want to be able to commute. Regardless this is not the place I would expect no Liberal candidate, they are at least somewhat competitive.

[adma]

The Liberals still have not nominated a full slate of candidates, only 116, less than the Greens even (120).  The PC and ONDP both have candidates in all 124 ridings.  Some of the ridings you would think would at least be competitive Liberal ridings, like Barrie-Innisfil, Liberal Ann Hoggarth's riding prior to the last election I believe, no Liberal candidate yet.

Hah, I lived in what's now Barrie-Innisfil for a couple of years when I was a kid, I should give the OLP a call.

It wasn't so much Hoggarth's riding prior to the last election as it contained half of her old riding (the old coterminous Barrie riding having been split into two rurban entities), it was actually the less Lib-congenial of the two, and she only ran there under the presumption that Patrick Brown was running in the other one.  And in the process, she became the only Lib incumbent to lose her deposit.  (Still, given the 2nd place polling, one'd expect better than a Manitoban incomplete slate for the OLP--though yes, it's less than a week into the campaign)

I'd say the demographics of South Barrie have changed the riding's political leanings a bit, and I think make it more competitive than when Hoggarth won.  It's a lot of former GTA and Toronto dwellers who moved out for affordability, but want to be able to commute. Regardless this is not the place I would expect no Liberal candidate, they are at least somewhat competitive.

Actually, those "changed demographics" were already basically in place when Hoggarth won, which is how she (and Aileen Carroll before her) came to win in the first place; previously, Barrie was assumed to be too archetypally whitebread too-far-from-the-inner-GTA Common Sense Revolution Tory.  However, the Innisfil part really has more political kinship with York-Simcoe (which it came from); and in a way, it's a tug-of-war btw/"urbanizing" and "exurbanizing" impulses here, with "exurbanizing" so far having the upper hand.  And a lot of that "affordability" argument could just as well be used on behalf of York-Simcoe (particularly in light of booming suburban growth in Bradford and East Gwillimbury); yet nobody's calling *that* on behalf of the Libs any time soon.

So it may be "generically" moderating, but let's not jump the gun here.  In practice, all it might mean is the difference btw/a Tory majority and a Tory submajority.

[King of Kensington]

Across the downtown three, the NDP obtained 64% of the combined NDP/Liberal/Green vote in '18 with virtually no difference between them. Toronto Centre is higher, largely because it has the weakest Conservative support base (no Rosedale, fewer high income condo dwellers, lower income, social housing etc.)

Of course because of the Vuong controversy, the arguably least NDP-amenable of the downtown three, Spadina-Fort York, was a near-miss for the NDP in the last federal election.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

A more impressive streak that is likely to be break this time: Toronto's two "Jewish" ridings: Eglinton-Lawrence and York Centre.  They've voted the same way federally since Eglinton-Lawrence was created in 1979 and provincially in 1999 (and the somewhat similar old ridings of Lawrence and Wilson Heights stayed Liberal in both '90 and '95).  The main difference between the two of course is the "Brahmin" North Toronto component of Eglinton-Lawrence.  The breaking of the pattern was evident provincially in 2018 of course when there was a "Tory vs. Lib Dem" pattern in Eg-Law.  Ironically in the 80s Eg-Law would probably have gone PC if had its modern-day boundaries (since then Brahmin Liberalism, the rightwing shift of the increasingly Orthodox-dominated Jewish community and Ford Nation populism has flipped the pattern).

Note that Eg-Law also has the "west of Allen" component which is less Jewish, but still very "ethnic" (Italian, Filipino, black). York Centre has this too. In recent years, this demographic has been another reason the Liberals have usually held off the Tories despite their major decline in support among Jewish Torontonians.

But that latter element is where the undermining effect of the aforementioned "Ford Nation populism" kicks in--those parts of Eg-Law still did generally go Lib in '18, but w/much more sluggish non-landslide shares than in the past; by my e-day calculation, W of Allen + Lawrence Heights went 39.99% Lib vs 32.54% for the Tories and 24.19% for NDP, and that's even accounting for such continued Liberal vote-sink factors as the Villa Colombo complex.  (By comparison, Mike Colle got 38.67% riding-wide.  It's only in N Toronto where his shares at large rose into the mid-to-upper-40s and beyond.)

And that's kind of the unique advantage of Ford that I mentioned earlier in this thread when someone asked who "Ford Nation" is. When you look at party ID, there just aren't as many self-identified PC supporters, they're only narrowly ahead of the Liberals in Party ID. But there is a substantial cohort of voters who don't identify as Conservatives but like Doug Ford. I think the "west-of-Allen" elements are a good example of this kind of voter.

[King of Kensington]

Indeed, the LPC wins NW Toronto and Scarborough with huge margins, but they were also bulwarks of support for the Fords municipally which had significant carryover into provincial politics too.

This is why I'm kind of skeptical of the NDP's chances in this election.  GTA is obviously crucial and the GTA is filled with "Ford Liberals." So either they stick with Ford or they return "home" to the Liberals.  What is the NDP's case to the Ford Liberal voter?  I don't think "we're just 10 seats away from forming government" cuts it.

[DL]

This is why I'm kind of skeptical of the NDP's chances in this election.  GTA is obviously crucial and the GTA is filled with "Ford Liberals." So either they stick with Ford or they return "home" to the Liberals.  What is the NDP's case to the Ford Liberal voter?  I don't think "we're just 10 seats away from forming government" cuts it.

I suppose the thinking would be that there is a disaffected populist vote in suburban Toronto that used to just automatically vote Liberal as a matter of course because they didn't know any better and that now that they have been dislodged from sucking on the Liberal Party teat - they are up for grabs between the rightwing populist Ford PCs and the leftwing populist ONDP.

[King of Kensington]

Interestingly the NDP did win three outer Toronto "Ford Nation" seats, showing that Ford explicitly under the PC banner was a bridge too far for some.  But only in Scarborough SW was it really a commanding victory.  In YSW and Humber they had a voting base and sort of came up the middle to win (thanks to the PCs becoming much more viable and turning them into three-way races because of the Ford effect).

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

Indeed, the LPC wins NW Toronto and Scarborough with huge margins, but they were also bulwarks of support for the Fords municipally which had significant carryover into provincial politics too.

This is why I'm kind of skeptical of the NDP's chances in this election.  GTA is obviously crucial and the GTA is filled with "Ford Liberals." So either they stick with Ford or they return "home" to the Liberals.  What is the NDP's case to the Ford Liberal voter?  I don't think "we're just 10 seats away from forming government" cuts it.

And on top of that, the NDP is likely to suffer from the old "oh, they can't win" phenomenon. This happened post-Layton too. In fact, the ONDP's current predicament is pretty similar to the federal NDP's in 2015. They had improved continuously in the Layton years, generated a lot of hype in the 2011 election, leapfrogged the Liberals, but alas it wasn't enough and it was a Tory majority. Basically the same thing happened provincially in 2018. So there's sometimes a sense that the NDP just can't win, even at their strongest. But this is a self-fulfilling prophecy because if people don't vote NDP because they "can't win", well, of course they won't win.

[adma]

Interestingly the NDP did win three outer Toronto "Ford Nation" seats, showing that Ford explicitly under the PC banner was a bridge too far for some.  But only in Scarborough SW was it really a commanding victory.  In YSW and Humber they had a voting base and sort of came up the middle to win (thanks to the PCs becoming much more viable and turning them into three-way races because of the Ford effect).

Compounding it all was the NDP winning both of the latter with a *lower* share of the vote than they lost with in 2014.

[adma]

Indeed, the LPC wins NW Toronto and Scarborough with huge margins, but they were also bulwarks of support for the Fords municipally which had significant carryover into provincial politics too.

This is why I'm kind of skeptical of the NDP's chances in this election.  GTA is obviously crucial and the GTA is filled with "Ford Liberals." So either they stick with Ford or they return "home" to the Liberals.  What is the NDP's case to the Ford Liberal voter?  I don't think "we're just 10 seats away from forming government" cuts it.

And on top of that, the NDP is likely to suffer from the old "oh, they can't win" phenomenon. This happened post-Layton too. In fact, the ONDP's current predicament is pretty similar to the federal NDP's in 2015. They had improved continuously in the Layton years, generated a lot of hype in the 2011 election, leapfrogged the Liberals, but alas it wasn't enough and it was a Tory majority. Basically the same thing happened provincially in 2018. So there's sometimes a sense that the NDP just can't win, even at their strongest. But this is a self-fulfilling prophecy because if people don't vote NDP because they "can't win", well, of course they won't win.

Though '15 was complicated by Layton dying, Mulcair tanking, and Justin being, well, the new Jack.

In '22 provincially, besides the fact that major media gatekeepers have *never* been at ease w/the NDP camp, Andrea Horwath's been unavoidably a sitting duck for Doug Ford's manner of governance--which gives new meaning to the notion of "she can't win".  (That is, the moment she *tries* to assert herself as Leader of the Opposition, you can picture Doug Ford turning a key and making her skitter off like a mechanical toy, like Spike does to Droopy in a Tex Avery cartoon or something)

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

Indeed, the LPC wins NW Toronto and Scarborough with huge margins, but they were also bulwarks of support for the Fords municipally which had significant carryover into provincial politics too.

This is why I'm kind of skeptical of the NDP's chances in this election.  GTA is obviously crucial and the GTA is filled with "Ford Liberals." So either they stick with Ford or they return "home" to the Liberals.  What is the NDP's case to the Ford Liberal voter?  I don't think "we're just 10 seats away from forming government" cuts it.

And on top of that, the NDP is likely to suffer from the old "oh, they can't win" phenomenon. This happened post-Layton too. In fact, the ONDP's current predicament is pretty similar to the federal NDP's in 2015. They had improved continuously in the Layton years, generated a lot of hype in the 2011 election, leapfrogged the Liberals, but alas it wasn't enough and it was a Tory majority. Basically the same thing happened provincially in 2018. So there's sometimes a sense that the NDP just can't win, even at their strongest. But this is a self-fulfilling prophecy because if people don't vote NDP because they "can't win", well, of course they won't win.

Though '15 was complicated by Layton dying, Mulcair tanking, and Justin being, well, the new Jack.

In '22 provincially, besides the fact that major media gatekeepers have *never* been at ease w/the NDP camp, Andrea Horwath's been unavoidably a sitting duck for Doug Ford's manner of governance--which gives new meaning to the notion of "she can't win".  (That is, the moment she *tries* to assert herself as Leader of the Opposition, you can picture Doug Ford turning a key and making her skitter off like a mechanical toy, like Spike does to Droopy in a Tex Avery cartoon or something)

COVID also had a "reset" effect I think. For the past two years, your average Ontario voter was mostly tuning into provincial politics to get the COVID updates, new measures, etc, which Ford and his cabinet were doing basically unilaterally. Some were popular, some unpopular, but it was very much about the government, people didn't have much time for an opposition that effectively couldn't do anything. So the fact that the Liberals had 7 seats to the NDP's 40 didn't really matter. In the end, it was Ford vs not Ford, which leveled the non-Ford playing field, which really was an advantage to the Liberals because they're Ontario's traditional non-PC party.