People you knew were DOA the moment they were sworn in.

[NewYorkExpress]

Charles Djou, Doug Jones, Joseph Cao.

Joe Biden probably fits this category if he runs for reelection.

[Tekken_Guy]

Charles Djou, Doug Jones, Joseph Cao.

Joe Biden probably fits this category if he runs for reelection.

Why Biden?

[NewYorkExpress]

Charles Djou, Doug Jones, Joseph Cao.

Joe Biden probably fits this category if he runs for reelection.

Why Biden?

Either Trump defeats Biden this time, or Biden loses a primary (someone's going to do it, with age as the reason).

[Tekken_Guy]

Charles Djou, Doug Jones, Joseph Cao.

Joe Biden probably fits this category if he runs for reelection.

Why Biden?

Either Trump defeats Biden this time, or Biden loses a primary (someone's going to do it, with age as the reason).

If he couldn’t do it in 2020, there is no way Trump is beating Biden in 2024. And he’s not going to lose a primary either.

[Joseph Cao]

Hmm…

[KYRockefeller]

Since 2010:

-Roland Burris
-Mark Kirk
-Scott Brown
-Joe Donnelly
-Doug Jones

Basically any candidate who won a deep blue or deep red state against the normal grain.  Just too many headwinds for a lot of these candidates in the next cycle, which was usually a presidential election year.

[beesley]

Hard to tell for the UK, I think even John Mason was seen to have some sort of chance in 2010.

As for the US, I think all the obvious ones have been said.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Aw Doug Jones -- my heart. 

I figured Kendra Horn was gonna have a tough re-election fight.  Ditto for Max Rose. 

[Calthrina950]

Since 2010:

-Roland Burris
-Mark Kirk
-Scott Brown
-Joe Donnelly
-Doug Jones

Basically any candidate who won a deep blue or deep red state against the normal grain.  Just too many headwinds for a lot of these candidates in the next cycle, which was usually a presidential election year.

Wasn't Roland Burris appointed to fill Obama's seat after Obama became President? I'm not sure why he's on the list. The others do fit, however.

[beesley]

Since 2010:

-Roland Burris
-Mark Kirk
-Scott Brown
-Joe Donnelly
-Doug Jones

Basically any candidate who won a deep blue or deep red state against the normal grain.  Just too many headwinds for a lot of these candidates in the next cycle, which was usually a presidential election year.

Wasn't Roland Burris appointed to fill Obama's seat after Obama became President? I'm not sure why he's on the list. The others do fit, however.

I think it's that he had no chance of winning the primary due to his corruption scandals involving Blago and perjury.

[KYRockefeller]

Since 2010:

-Roland Burris
-Mark Kirk
-Scott Brown
-Joe Donnelly
-Doug Jones

Basically any candidate who won a deep blue or deep red state against the normal grain.  Just too many headwinds for a lot of these candidates in the next cycle, which was usually a presidential election year.

Wasn't Roland Burris appointed to fill Obama's seat after Obama became President? I'm not sure why he's on the list. The others do fit, however.

He was appointed, but the OP just asked who we knew wasn't going to win re-election once they were sworn in.  Unlike the others, Burris was a Democrat in a deep blue state but his appointment was universally hated.  I think when he considered running for re-election he only had like $800 in his campaign chest.

[MATTROSE94]

Martha McSally, Andy Beshear, John Corzine, David Perdue, Kelly Lofeller, Raphael Warnock, Mark Kelly, Catherine Cortez Masto, and Maggie Hassan. I actually had Cory Gardner, Joseph Cao, Scott Brown, Kendra Horn, Ben McAdams, Joe Cunningham, Xochitl Torres-Small, Max Rose, Anthony Brindisi, Harley Rouda, and Doug Jones winning additional terms at least at first.

It makes sense to think the others might win reelection (for example, Rouda's district actually voted for Biden), but how did you imagine Joseph Cao (who won a majority-black, D+28 district that was Barack Obama's 35th strongest district nationally in 2008 against a scandal-ridden opponent) and Doug Jones (who beat someone facing numerous allegations of sexual harrassment in a state that gave Trump 62%)?  The others I can understand, but it seems like it was clear from the day of their election that Cao and Jones would serve only one term (in Jones' case, just half a term).

I was thinking that Joseph Cao and Doug Jones would have developed political support that transcended party lines in their respective states and districts. I conceded that Doug Jones was going to lose after Donald Trump’s first impeachment began however.

[MATTROSE94]

Doug Jones (D-AL), Scott Brown (R-MA), Ralph Warnock (D-GA) and Joseph Cao (R-New Orleans).

Warnock is definitely not DOA.

Herschel Walker seems to be a very strong candidate who can get the turnout he needs in the rural areas and reduce the Democratic margins in the Black Belt and Atlanta. That will be more than enough for him to win by at least a 2% margin.

[Tekken_Guy]

Martha McSally, Andy Beshear, John Corzine, David Perdue, Kelly Lofeller, Raphael Warnock, Mark Kelly, Catherine Cortez Masto, and Maggie Hassan. I actually had Cory Gardner, Joseph Cao, Scott Brown, Kendra Horn, Ben McAdams, Joe Cunningham, Xochitl Torres-Small, Max Rose, Anthony Brindisi, Harley Rouda, and Doug Jones winning additional terms at least at first.

It makes sense to think the others might win reelection (for example, Rouda's district actually voted for Biden), but how did you imagine Joseph Cao (who won a majority-black, D+28 district that was Barack Obama's 35th strongest district nationally in 2008 against a scandal-ridden opponent) and Doug Jones (who beat someone facing numerous allegations of sexual harrassment in a state that gave Trump 62%)?  The others I can understand, but it seems like it was clear from the day of their election that Cao and Jones would serve only one term (in Jones' case, just half a term).

I was thinking that Joseph Cao and Doug Jones would have developed political support that transcended party lines in their respective states and districts. I conceded that Doug Jones was going to lose after Donald Trump’s first impeachment began however.

Doubt that would have been enough. Maybe to overperform, yes, but not to actually win again.

[patzer]

Hard to tell for the UK, I think even John Mason was seen to have some sort of chance in 2010.

As for the US, I think all the obvious ones have been said.

For the UK: Emma Little-Pengelly, Belfast South 2017. It was obvious that she only won thanks to absurd levels of nationalist vote-splitting.