People you knew were DOA the moment they were sworn in.

[Tekken_Guy]

What members of congress were you certain would lose their next election the moment they were sworn in?

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Doug Jones

[Coastal Elitist]

Doug Jones, Kendra Horn, Ben McAdams, Joe Cunningham, Xochitl Torres-Small, Max Rose, Anthony Brindisi, Harley Rouda.

Yes I know most of these had close losses but still, I figured they were DOA in a more neutral environment considering the lean of their districts.

[brucejoel99]

Scott Brown at 5pm on Feb. 4th, 2010, & Cory Gardner at noon on Jan. 3rd, 2015, both come to mind.

[Pericles]

Scott Brown at 5pm on Feb. 4th, 2010, & Cory Gardner at noon on Jan. 3rd, 2015, both come to mind.

Was Gardner completely DOA? Colorado was more of a swing state back then, if trends had gone differently he might have had a shot. Plus he could have broken the party line more and maybe with a few other things going his way he'd be able to win. Alabama and Massachusetts were different, safe states for the opposition party.

[Matty]

Scott Brown at 5pm on Feb. 4th, 2010, & Cory Gardner at noon on Jan. 3rd, 2015, both come to mind.

Cory Gardner was not doa

[Spectator]

Doug Jones, Kendra Horn, Ben McAdams, Joe Cunningham, Xochitl Torres-Small, Max Rose, Anthony Brindisi, Harley Rouda.

Yes I know most of these had close losses but still, I figured they were DOA in a more neutral environment considering the lean of their districts.

Rouda does not belong on this list with his seat being way left of the others and a two time Democratic district at the presidential level.

[UncleSam]

Doug Jones and Scott Brown

[Calthrina950]

Doug Jones and Scott Brown

I would agree, although Brown came much closer to winning reelection than Jones did. He lost to Elizabeth Warren by "only" 7%, managing to win over ~230,000 Obama voters, while Jones lost by more than 20% and got only about 70,000 Trump voters to support him. Of course, polarization increased considerably between 2012 and 2020, and Alabama is a much more partisan state downballot than Massachusetts is.

[Pollster]

Doug Jones and Scott Brown

I would agree, although Brown came much closer to winning reelection than Jones did. He lost to Elizabeth Warren by "only" 7%, managing to win over ~230,000 Obama voters, while Jones lost by more than 20% and got only about 70,000 Trump voters to support him. Of course, polarization increased considerably between 2012 and 2020, and Alabama is a much more partisan state downballot than Massachusetts is.

There are also significantly more "traditional" swing voters in Massachusetts (non-evangelical whites, educated commuters, blue-collar Catholics both white and Latino), as is fairly common throughout New England.

[gerritcole]

joseph cao

[MATTROSE94]

Martha McSally, Andy Beshear, John Corzine, David Perdue, Kelly Lofeller, Raphael Warnock, Mark Kelly, Catherine Cortez Masto, and Maggie Hassan. I actually had Cory Gardner, Joseph Cao, Scott Brown, Kendra Horn, Ben McAdams, Joe Cunningham, Xochitl Torres-Small, Max Rose, Anthony Brindisi, Harley Rouda, and Doug Jones winning additional terms at least at first.

[Schiff for Senate]

Doug Jones (D-AL), Scott Brown (R-MA), Ralph Warnock (D-GA) and Joseph Cao (R-New Orleans).

[Schiff for Senate]

Martha McSally, Andy Beshear, John Corzine, David Perdue, Kelly Lofeller, Raphael Warnock, Mark Kelly, Catherine Cortez Masto, and Maggie Hassan. I actually had Cory Gardner, Joseph Cao, Scott Brown, Kendra Horn, Ben McAdams, Joe Cunningham, Xochitl Torres-Small, Max Rose, Anthony Brindisi, Harley Rouda, and Doug Jones winning additional terms at least at first.

It makes sense to think the others might win reelection (for example, Rouda's district actually voted for Biden), but how did you imagine Joseph Cao (who won a majority-black, D+28 district that was Barack Obama's 35th strongest district nationally in 2008 against a scandal-ridden opponent) and Doug Jones (who beat someone facing numerous allegations of sexual harrassment in a state that gave Trump 62%)?  The others I can understand, but it seems like it was clear from the day of their election that Cao and Jones would serve only one term (in Jones' case, just half a term).

[Roll Roons]

Doug Jones (D-AL), Scott Brown (R-MA), Ralph Warnock (D-GA) and Joseph Cao (R-New Orleans).

Warnock is definitely not DOA.

[Schiff for Senate]

Doug Jones (D-AL), Scott Brown (R-MA), Ralph Warnock (D-GA) and Joseph Cao (R-New Orleans).

Warnock is definitely not DOA.

Perhaps not 'DOA' but I think it's a race that may well flip red, given the fact that Warnock won narrowly against a weak opponent in a presidential election year (with Trump on the ballot) in a race where the result would determine Senate control, boosting Democratic turnout in the Atlanta metropolitan area. In 2022, which is expected to be a good GOP year, Warnock will likely suffer because of comparitively low turnout in the Atlanta metropolitan area (Trump and Biden won't be on the ballot; it will be a midterm), and with the right opponent (Loeffler was weak; she barely made it past Doug Collins - if the GOP wants to win back some of the Atlanta suburbs they should nominate a mainstream, anti-Trump moderate in the mold of Johnny Isakson), I think the race could even be rated as tilt or Lean R. Remember, 2020 was the case with the highest turnout for Democrats (see above), while 2022 will likely be particularly low turnout for the GOP. On the other hand, the Democratic Train in Georgia has been moving quickly, even against the heavy winds of bad Democratic years, and 2022 may not be an exception (GA-06 voted for Mitt Romney by 23% in 2012 and Trump in 2016 by just 1.5%; it voted for Biden in 2020).

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Johnson and Toomey, they slipped by in 2016 due to Hillary, they won't slip bye, but Biden if Rs take the H will investigate Hunter Biden without Johnson

[LtNOWIS]

Scott Brown at 5pm on Feb. 4th, 2010, & Cory Gardner at noon on Jan. 3rd, 2015, both come to mind.

Was Gardner completely DOA? Colorado was more of a swing state back then, if trends had gone differently he might have had a shot. Plus he could have broken the party line more and maybe with a few other things going his way he'd be able to win. Alabama and Massachusetts were different, safe states for the opposition party.

DOA is maybe an overstatement, but he was a top tier candidate, who ran a great campaign, in a great year for Republicans, and he won by 2%. It was a sign that Colorado was slipping away from the GOP.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Joseph Cao

[CookieDamage]

Doug Jones (D-AL), Scott Brown (R-MA), Ralph Warnock (D-GA) and Joseph Cao (R-New Orleans).

Warnock is definitely not DOA.

Perhaps not 'DOA' but I think it's a race that may well flip red, given the fact that Warnock won narrowly against a weak opponent in a presidential election year (with Trump on the ballot) in a race where the result would determine Senate control, boosting Democratic turnout in the Atlanta metropolitan area. In 2022, which is expected to be a good GOP year, Warnock will likely suffer because of comparitively low turnout in the Atlanta metropolitan area (Trump and Biden won't be on the ballot; it will be a midterm), and with the right opponent (Loeffler was weak; she barely made it past Doug Collins - if the GOP wants to win back some of the Atlanta suburbs they should nominate a mainstream, anti-Trump moderate in the mold of Johnny Isakson), I think the race could even be rated as tilt or Lean R. Remember, 2020 was the case with the highest turnout for Democrats (see above), while 2022 will likely be particularly low turnout for the GOP. On the other hand, the Democratic Train in Georgia has been moving quickly, even against the heavy winds of bad Democratic years, and 2022 may not be an exception (GA-06 voted for Mitt Romney by 23% in 2012 and Trump in 2016 by just 1.5%; it voted for Biden in 2020).

So you agree... He's not DOA

[CookieDamage]

Since 2017/2018, Doug Jones is the only really DOA case. Kendra Horn, Joe Cunningham, and some other red district House dems had a shot and their loses weren't total landslides. There were plausible universes where they could have won, while Doug Jones had to pray for a total disaster candidate like 2017 (which he did not receive).

Maybe Collin Peterson was close to being DOA since his district had been zooming republican for years.

[Tekken_Guy]

Since 2017/2018, Doug Jones is the only really DOA case. Kendra Horn, Joe Cunningham, and some other red district House dems had a shot and their loses weren't total landslides. There were plausible universes where they could have won, while Doug Jones had to pray for a total disaster candidate like 2017 (which he did not receive).

Maybe Collin Peterson was close to being DOA since his district had been zooming republican for years.

What about Torres-Small or Rose?

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Michael Patrick Flanagan (IL-05)

[Brittain33]

Charles Djou

[Meatball Ron]

Since 2017/2018, Doug Jones is the only really DOA case. Kendra Horn, Joe Cunningham, and some other red district House dems had a shot and their loses weren't total landslides. There were plausible universes where they could have won, while Doug Jones had to pray for a total disaster candidate like 2017 (which he did not receive).

Maybe Collin Peterson was close to being DOA since his district had been zooming republican for years.

What about Torres-Small or Rose?

All of them were underdogs for reelection, but all of them *could* have won reelection in a national environment that was 5ish points better for Dems (the 2018 environment, essentially). DOA = no shot.