In 2024, Joe Biden decides against running for another term, citing declining health. Kamala Harris wins the Democratic nomination, in a surprisingly close contest against Pennsylvania Senator John Fetterman. She selects Sec. Pete Buttigieg as her running mate. The Republicans meanwhile nominate Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, who has the early and full endorsement of former President Trump. DeSantis selects Gov. Kristi Noem as his running mate. An economic dip, coupled with an escalating culture war in which the Republican ticket wins over most swing voters, results in a GOP victory. This is the map:
Four years later, NYC Mayor Eric Adams, now in his second term, runs for the Democratic nomination. Adams is relatively popular as mayor; crime has dropped significantly and the economy has done well under his watch. In his campaign, he insists that the Democratic Party had drifted too far to the left on culture war and law and order issues, resulting in alienation from their working class base and the defeat of Harris. This message resonates with many primary voters, especially African-Americans. Following a crushing victory in South Carolina over other candidates including Georgia Gov. Stacey Abrams, Adams coasts to the nomination; to the surprise of some observers, he even dominates with white working class voters in the primaries, as well as Hispanics (a group DeSantis made significant gains with in 2024).
Adams selects former Kentucky governor Andy Beshear (who has just finished his second term) as his running mate. They campaign on a moderate platform which mostly downplays social issues and attacks DeSantis for his conservative economic policies which harm the working class voters he claims to care about.
Who wins? What's the map?
