Temperature in Portland to potentially go over 110 degrees in place where many still don’t have AC

[Crumpets]

I can throw out there that I grew up in a house without AC in Seattle. At one point my parents bought an AC, but it broke, and there was never really any need to replace it. We just used fans that one or two weeks out of the year when it was hot. Although my parents did later get an AC for their bedroom last year.

I think for most people, it's just a basic cost/risk calculation. What are the chances in any given year that it'll be too hot for me to just use a fan? Pretty slim most years, and probably not enough to warrant investing in a new AC if you don't already have one.

[💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)]

I've never liked the "people can't live in extreme climates" argument. People have lived in extreme climates for thousands of years (in the Americas at least, likely for longer in the Old World). They just did so with very different lifestyles that were adapted for their conditions (up to and including shorter longevity of course). It would be hard to replicate at the scale of the millions we have in our large metro areas now, but there are definitely things we can (re-)learn from these people to cope with some aspects of increasingly extreme climatic events and shifts.

[Donerail]

The other thing to mention as to why everyone having aircon is not necessarily desirable is that it is an environmental disaster.

Heating is far worse, but I never see anyone complaining about that. If you try to take my AC away, I'll become a climate change denialist.

If you can’t survive in a climate without air conditioning, then you’ve either never adequately adapted to that climate or it’s simply not one that your body can handle. I say that as someone who spent the first 23 years of their life in Florida with barely any a/c and who now lives in Vermont without any a/c. It’s an environmental disaster and harmful to your ability to acclimate. Do hot days (and especially nights) suck? Absolutely. Personally, I can tolerate the cold much better than the heat so the Canadian border states are as far south as I’ll live now. But it’s important to let your body acclimate to your climate; if you can’t handle that, then consider relocating. A/c units should, ideally, be reserved for those with health risks or at least not be used by the general public until heatwaves strike.

As I already mentioned above, heat draws far more electricity than AC. It seems to be people in generally cold weather places that want to attack air conditioning while they run the heat 8-9  months out of the year. The cold kills far more people than the heat. Human beings were not meant to live in the frozen wastelands of the northern latitudes. I realize they won't be frozen for much longer, but that's beside the point.

Yes, if we're talking about environmental disasters, the vast majority of American homes are heated with fossil fuels — either propane or heating oil. A/C is 100% electric, so it'll reflect whatever sources of electric power you have in the region, which in the Pacific Northwest is mostly hydro and so basically emissions-free. Even if you're not getting your power from renewables, just moving from Duluth to Florida will dramatically shrink your carbon emissions as you switch from heaters to A/C (especially since we've phased out HFCs).

At any rate, the tut-tutting about the environmental disaster of air conditions seems more than a little insensitive in a thread about an impending environmental disaster. If these temperature projections pan out — and the models are stubbornly sticking to forecasts of >110 — hundreds, possibly thousands of people will die. We know what happens when you get this kind of heat in an area where lots of people don't have A/C.

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

For reference ~70 thousand people died in Europe in the 2003 heatwave. While a death rate this severe in the Northwest is unfathomable given that air conditioning is more common, it's worth mentioning that homes in France are designed to release heat, whereas homes in the NW are designed to retain heat. It's also worth mentioning that temperatures in Seattle and Portland will be ~10 degrees hotter. It's also worth mentioning that the heat index will be a massive problem - dew points are hovering between 65 and 75 degrees depending on the weather station, which amounts to sultry, sticky and gross conditions.

Last and most important, I do not think that it's "dooming" to mention the risk of widespread power failure. While utilities are currently saying that they are prepared for this, no one should take this language seriously: this weather event would be deemed "impossible" by any normal public authority/institution. While utilities are well-prepared for extreme heatwaves, this preparation is for a heatwave where it reaches ~100-104 degrees in Seattle, maybe 110 in Portland, not one where it could reach ~110 in Seattle and 115-120 in Portland (latter numbers are from the GFS). As we saw in Texas in February, when a weather event occurs that is seen to be "impossible" and meteorologists have a hard time believing what models are saying, the odds are close to certain that institutions at all levels are woefully unprepared.

As a side-note: the public is unprepared for this. No one in Seattle or Portland knows what 110 degrees feels like unless they lived in Phoenix. Certainly, no one there knows what these temperatures feel like without AC. It's beyond the realm of experience. Do I think some people will die because they foolishly treat this like an ordinary heatwave? Yes, absolutely. This event is so extreme that people should allow elderly strangers to stay at their house if their home has AC.

[MysteryMan]

The other thing to mention as to why everyone having aircon is not necessarily desirable is that it is an environmental disaster.

Heating is far worse, but I never see anyone complaining about that. If you try to take my AC away, I'll become a climate change denialist.

If you can’t survive in a climate without air conditioning, then you’ve either never adequately adapted to that climate or it’s simply not one that your body can handle. I say that as someone who spent the first 23 years of their life in Florida with barely any a/c and who now lives in Vermont without any a/c. It’s an environmental disaster and harmful to your ability to acclimate. Do hot days (and especially nights) suck? Absolutely. Personally, I can tolerate the cold much better than the heat so the Canadian border states are as far south as I’ll live now. But it’s important to let your body acclimate to your climate; if you can’t handle that, then consider relocating. A/c units should, ideally, be reserved for those with health risks or at least not be used by the general public until heatwaves strike.

As I already mentioned above, heat draws far more electricity than AC. It seems to be people in generally cold weather places that want to attack air conditioning while they run the heat 8-9  months out of the year. The cold kills far more people than the heat. Human beings were not meant to live in the frozen wastelands of the northern latitudes. I realize they won't be frozen for much longer, but that's beside the point.

Yes, if we're talking about environmental disasters, the vast majority of American homes are heated with fossil fuels — either propane or heating oil. A/C is 100% electric, so it'll reflect whatever sources of electric power you have in the region, which in the Pacific Northwest is mostly hydro and so basically emissions-free. Even if you're not getting your power from renewables, just moving from Duluth to Florida will dramatically shrink your carbon emissions as you switch from heaters to A/C (especially since we've phased out HFCs).

At any rate, the tut-tutting about the environmental disaster of air conditions seems more than a little insensitive in a thread about an impending environmental disaster. If these temperature projections pan out — and the models are stubbornly sticking to forecasts of >110 — hundreds, possibly thousands of people will die. We know what happens when you get this kind of heat in an area where lots of people don't have A/C.

Yes, but acknowledging that hydroelectricity-powered AC units are more environmentally friendly than their propane heating means all the northeasterners and europeans can't smugpost while looking down on those of us about to face temperatures that have never before been recorded in this region.

Seriously, to everyone who is smugly going "Well AC is bad so don't use it" how about you go an entire winter without running your gas heating? My AC is run off of a 80% hydroelectric grid, get your own Co2 output down to my level then we can talk.

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

I can throw out there that I grew up in a house without AC in Seattle. At one point my parents bought an AC, but it broke, and there was never really any need to replace it. We just used fans that one or two weeks out of the year when it was hot. Although my parents did later get an AC for their bedroom last year.

I think for most people, it's just a basic cost/risk calculation. What are the chances in any given year that it'll be too hot for me to just use a fan? Pretty slim most years, and probably not enough to warrant investing in a new AC if you don't already have one.

I'm not trying to pick on crumpets but this mentality is emblematic of thinking in the wider Northwest outside of maybe the Tri-Cities and, sadly, this mentality is what kills people during extreme heatwaves. As an example, my parents' AC conked out and my Dad didn't want to pay to fix it so he just paid for portable AC, which my parents used for 2-3 years before there was a megaheatwave in 2015 where the temperature cracked 103 with 75 as a low in late June (hm, almost as if this is becoming normal or something?) and the house got up to ~85-90. This was stupid because repairing the AC wasn't even expensive.

Basically, people in the Northwest are complacent and backward-looking, basing their expectation of summer weather based on weather patterns from the 1980s or 1990s, not the 2010s. I think everyone in Seattle and Portland should have AC. I suffered through multiple triple digit heat days in Portland in 2013. It seems like these occur every summer there these days.

[politicallefty]

For reference ~70 thousand people died in Europe in the 2003 heatwave. While a death rate this severe in the Northwest is unfathomable given that air conditioning is more common, it's worth mentioning that homes in France are designed to release heat, whereas homes in the NW are designed to retain heat. It's also worth mentioning that temperatures in Seattle and Portland will be ~10 degrees hotter. It's also worth mentioning that the heat index will be a massive problem - dew points are hovering between 65 and 75 degrees depending on the weather station, which amounts to sultry, sticky and gross conditions.

Last and most important, I do not think that it's "dooming" to mention the risk of widespread power failure. While utilities are currently saying that they are prepared for this, no one should take this language seriously: this weather event would be deemed "impossible" by any normal public authority/institution. While utilities are well-prepared for extreme heatwaves, this preparation is for a heatwave where it reaches ~100-104 degrees in Seattle, maybe 110 in Portland, not one where it could reach ~110 in Seattle and 115-120 in Portland (latter numbers are from the GFS). As we saw in Texas in February, when a weather event occurs that is seen to be "impossible" and meteorologists have a hard time believing what models are saying, the odds are close to certain that institutions at all levels are woefully unprepared.

As a side-note: the public is unprepared for this. No one in Seattle or Portland knows what 110 degrees feels like unless they lived in Phoenix. Certainly, no one there knows what these temperatures feel like without AC. It's beyond the realm of experience. Do I think some people will die because they foolishly treat this like an ordinary heatwave? Yes, absolutely. This event is so extreme that people should allow elderly strangers to stay at their house if their home has AC.

Is that really true about the heat index? That's generally a result of humidity. The forecast I saw for Portland shows 115F for both Sunday and Monday, but 73F as the low. That reminds me of the dry heat of the Central Valley of California, although never getting quite that high of course. Generally large temperature differentials between day and night are the result of a dry heat. Humidity has a tendency to trap in the heat and keep it warm overnight.

It's not entirely true that this is unheard of for the Pacific NW. I have an aunt that lives near Olympia and it's broken into the triple digits a few times over the years. Everyone should at least have one window AC unit in their home.

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

For reference ~70 thousand people died in Europe in the 2003 heatwave. While a death rate this severe in the Northwest is unfathomable given that air conditioning is more common, it's worth mentioning that homes in France are designed to release heat, whereas homes in the NW are designed to retain heat. It's also worth mentioning that temperatures in Seattle and Portland will be ~10 degrees hotter. It's also worth mentioning that the heat index will be a massive problem - dew points are hovering between 65 and 75 degrees depending on the weather station, which amounts to sultry, sticky and gross conditions.

Last and most important, I do not think that it's "dooming" to mention the risk of widespread power failure. While utilities are currently saying that they are prepared for this, no one should take this language seriously: this weather event would be deemed "impossible" by any normal public authority/institution. While utilities are well-prepared for extreme heatwaves, this preparation is for a heatwave where it reaches ~100-104 degrees in Seattle, maybe 110 in Portland, not one where it could reach ~110 in Seattle and 115-120 in Portland (latter numbers are from the GFS). As we saw in Texas in February, when a weather event occurs that is seen to be "impossible" and meteorologists have a hard time believing what models are saying, the odds are close to certain that institutions at all levels are woefully unprepared.

As a side-note: the public is unprepared for this. No one in Seattle or Portland knows what 110 degrees feels like unless they lived in Phoenix. Certainly, no one there knows what these temperatures feel like without AC. It's beyond the realm of experience. Do I think some people will die because they foolishly treat this like an ordinary heatwave? Yes, absolutely. This event is so extreme that people should allow elderly strangers to stay at their house if their home has AC.

Is that really true about the heat index? That's generally a result of humidity. The forecast I saw for Portland shows 115F for both Sunday and Monday, but 73F as the low. That reminds me of the dry heat of the Central Valley of California, although never getting quite that high of course. Generally large temperature differentials between day and night are the result of a dry heat. Humidity has a tendency to trap in the heat and keep it warm overnight.

It's not entirely true that this is unheard of for the Pacific NW. I have an aunt that lives near Olympia and it's broken into the triple digits a few times over the years. Everyone should at least have one window AC unit in their home.

In a word: yes. I have seen vague murmurings about this online, that this won't exactly be a "dry heat" in the classic sense, but it seems that readings at weather stations today are stripping past what was expected (?) such that the NWS station in Seattle is tweeting about it. I have also seen BC meteorologists tweeting about the "Humidex", which is their version of the heat index, so there was some indication this would happen. I have to imagine a 70 degree dew point was not forecast though - that is actually muggy.

https://twitter.com/NWSSeattle/status/1408854968119947264?s=20

No, this is totally unheard of in the Pacific NW. It boggles my mind that people are casually conflating the triple digit heat that a city like Olympia or Seattle sees every few years with the forecasted high temperatures of 110-115 (110 in SeaTac will imply hotter weather in Tacoma and Olympia). Please stop doing this, the latter is not normal and no one knows what that is like here! A quote from a respected weather blogger about the latest GFS forecast:

Honestly, the upper-level pattern and mesoscale details are so insane I don't know if this can be entirely discounted. The 121 in Tacoma strains credulity even under these circumstances, but 118 in Portland and 111 in Seattle may actually be achievable.

To be clear, if he is saying that 118 is possible in Portland, well, something closer to that than 110 is very possible in Tacoma imo. One thing that we know is that some models are not only consistently predicting outlandish highs, models are converging on this so you cannot discount it easily.

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

These forecasted Fraser Valley (Vancouver area community of Abbotsford and surrounds) dew points are dangerous given the temperatures forecast for these areas. I'd go so far as to say that the dew point issue is what could tip this over into being a catastrophe - dew point of 70+ with a forecast high of ~110-115 results in a heat index of *checks notes* 130 degrees farenheit. Sadly, dew point in Abbotsford is currently 70 degrees or so - hard to discount this model prediction if it is already happening even as temperatures are shooting over 100 degrees there...

[OSR stands with Israel]

For reference ~70 thousand people died in Europe in the 2003 heatwave. While a death rate this severe in the Northwest is unfathomable given that air conditioning is more common, it's worth mentioning that homes in France are designed to release heat, whereas homes in the NW are designed to retain heat. It's also worth mentioning that temperatures in Seattle and Portland will be ~10 degrees hotter. It's also worth mentioning that the heat index will be a massive problem - dew points are hovering between 65 and 75 degrees depending on the weather station, which amounts to sultry, sticky and gross conditions.

Last and most important, I do not think that it's "dooming" to mention the risk of widespread power failure. While utilities are currently saying that they are prepared for this, no one should take this language seriously: this weather event would be deemed "impossible" by any normal public authority/institution. While utilities are well-prepared for extreme heatwaves, this preparation is for a heatwave where it reaches ~100-104 degrees in Seattle, maybe 110 in Portland, not one where it could reach ~110 in Seattle and 115-120 in Portland (latter numbers are from the GFS). As we saw in Texas in February, when a weather event occurs that is seen to be "impossible" and meteorologists have a hard time believing what models are saying, the odds are close to certain that institutions at all levels are woefully unprepared.

As a side-note: the public is unprepared for this. No one in Seattle or Portland knows what 110 degrees feels like unless they lived in Phoenix. Certainly, no one there knows what these temperatures feel like without AC. It's beyond the realm of experience. Do I think some people will die because they foolishly treat this like an ordinary heatwave? Yes, absolutely. This event is so extreme that people should allow elderly strangers to stay at their house if their home has AC.

Is that really true about the heat index? That's generally a result of humidity. The forecast I saw for Portland shows 115F for both Sunday and Monday, but 73F as the low. That reminds me of the dry heat of the Central Valley of California, although never getting quite that high of course. Generally large temperature differentials between day and night are the result of a dry heat. Humidity has a tendency to trap in the heat and keep it warm overnight.

It's not entirely true that this is unheard of for the Pacific NW. I have an aunt that lives near Olympia and it's broken into the triple digits a few times over the years. Everyone should at least have one window AC unit in their home.

The problem is the low temperatures of the day dont happen in the night but at around 7 am in the morning so if the low temperature is 73-74 then most of the night it will be in the 80s till around 3 am.


Like if you look at the hour by hour you will see how warm it can be at night : https://weather.com/weather/hourbyhour/l/929a0a10df059030a591f46c408a7e6e022d06a80cdea1287444f02b92d9fd07

[Seattle]

Portland certainly sees triple digits every couple years (if not more frequently than that), but never for sustained periods of time (i.e. only for 2-3 hours and for one or two consecutive days). It's about to see highs above 100 for four days, with 10-11 hours Sunday/Monday above 100, with the potential to hit 115-120.

If it gets down to 75 by 7 AM, your house without AC will be in the low 90s all night. For 3 days. This is going to kill a lot of people.

In Seattle, it's even more stark. We have hit 100+ exactly 3 times in recorded history. And the forecast is 106 on Sunday and 111 on Monday. And just 35% of households have AC.

I live in a 1907 house, without AC of course. It's hot!!

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

An interesting and illustrative comment that I saw on reddit:

I work in building design, construction, and operations, and these extreme temperatures are concerning because even buildings with air conditioning are in peril. Under the building code, building AC systems only have to be designed to the 97.5% summer design temperature, which for Vancouver is 29C. That means that only 2.5% of the time, is the temperature above that, and should that occur by a small amount for short periods of time, no big deal. But if temperatures are 10 degrees above summer design temp, installed cooling systems may become partially or completely ineffective. Really critical infrastructure like data centres, refrigerated and frozen storage facilities, grocery stores, even hospitals.

Basically, the building code of this part of the country is not structured for this weather so AC won't be particularly effective past a certain threshold. One wonders how this could strain electricity resources if there's widespread lack of awareness about this problem.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Portland certainly sees triple digits every couple years (if not more frequently than that), but never for sustained periods of time (i.e. only for 2-3 hours and for one or two consecutive days). It's about to see highs above 100 for four days, with 10-11 hours Sunday/Monday above 100, with the potential to hit 115-120.

If it gets down to 75 by 7 AM, your house without AC will be in the low 90s all night. For 3 days. This is going to kill a lot of people.

In Seattle, it's even more stark. We have hit 100+ exactly 3 times in recorded history. And the forecast is 106 on Sunday and 111 on Monday. And just 35% of households have AC.

I live in a 1907 house, without AC of course. It's hot!!

Also it being June means there will be less cool off time than in late July/Early August when we usually get triple digits temperatures as well

[GeneralMacArthur]

Reporting live from Seattle.  It's 103 degrees right now.  Opening the door feels like taking a blowdrier and holding it up to my face.  Instant headache.  I was even considering going jogging this morning, I'd probably be dead if I hadn't talked myself out of it.

[Hammy]

Portland certainly sees triple digits every couple years (if not more frequently than that), but never for sustained periods of time (i.e. only for 2-3 hours and for one or two consecutive days). It's about to see highs above 100 for four days, with 10-11 hours Sunday/Monday above 100, with the potential to hit 115-120.

If it gets down to 75 by 7 AM, your house without AC will be in the low 90s all night. For 3 days. This is going to kill a lot of people.

In Seattle, it's even more stark. We have hit 100+ exactly 3 times in recorded history. And the forecast is 106 on Sunday and 111 on Monday. And just 35% of households have AC.

I live in a 1907 house, without AC of course. It's hot!!

Also it being June means there will be less cool off time than in late July/Early August when we usually get triple digits temperatures as well

This is a very worrying prospect given how last year's fire season was.

[Crumpets]

I'm pretty sure the last time it hit 103 in Seattle, I went to go see Harry Potter 3 in the theater with a friend of mine.

[OSR stands with Israel]

According to the local news , a few thousand people have already lost power .  Hopefully the PGE can bring the power back as soon as possible and hopefully it’s not a sign of a wide spread power issue

[emailking]

Human beings were not meant to live in the frozen wastelands of the northern latitudes. I realize they won't be frozen for much longer, but that's beside the point.

Ehh Neanderthals did ok. Homo Sapiens are adapted to warmer climates though yeah.

I'm pretty sure the last time it hit 103 in Seattle, I went to go see Harry Potter 3 in the theater with a friend of mine.

The best one. Time travel!

[pbrower2a]

These are temperatures that one might expect in Karachi or Riyadh -- not the American Northwest!    

[AtorBoltox]

I wonder if this or cancel culture is a more important issue

[YE]

OSR and to other Oregon posters please stay inside and drink plenty of water. If you lose power go somewhere in public with one like a mall.

Portland just broke it’s all time record high today of 107F which it’ll shatter tomorrow.

[OSR stands with Israel]

OSR and to other Oregon posters please stay inside and drink plenty of water. If you lose power go somewhere in public with one like a mall.

Portland just broke it’s all time record high today of 107F which it’ll shatter tomorrow.

Yah it was insanely hot today and it’s gonna get even worse tomorrow. Yes I have made sure to drink plenty of water as I have gotten thirsty a lot more than usual today and have also made sure to stay downstairs as much as possible given it’s cooler downstairs.


Thanks YE for thinking about us though

[GeneralMacArthur]

It was 109 at its peak today outside my house.  Currently it's 89 degrees outside, and I'm keeping my door and windows open because it's 94 inside from all the heat trapped throughout the day.

[jamestroll]

This  is the future of the west! Mother nature is fighting back against the overpopulation of the Western United States.

It is time to fight back mother nature with desalination plants and rerouting the columbia river into the colorado river. I want to turn the hot desert into year round agriculture.


One more dry winter, Salt Lake City could feasibly run out of water.

Forget about COVID COVID COVID... this is the real crisis for the United States. This is a national problem not a regional problem.

[Mercenary]

10pm and 90 degrees. I can not remember this kind of heat in my life.