1968: LBJ vs. Nixon

[Alben Barkley]

This has probably been done before but what do you think would have happened if LBJ was determined to run in 1968? Almost certainly he would have been nominated if he wanted it, as ultimately the party still deferred to his choice of Humphrey even after he bowed out of the race.

True, he wasn’t a very popular president at the time, but I get the sense that just how unpopular he was has been exaggerated. In fact, according to Gallup polls he was only briefly ever underwater in approval rating, and for most of 1968 his rating was more or less even. And more to the point, polls taken of LBJ vs. Nixon match-ups through August showed a close race, with LBJ actually leading most polls.

Given all that, I don’t see a ton of reason to believe he necessarily would have done WORSE than Humphrey. True, the anti-war wing of the Democratic Party hated him, but it’s not like they felt much better about Humphrey. And the “silent majority” might still have preferred him. I think he might have jumped the gun himself in assuming he was toast after an underwhelming New Hampshire primary win.

What I am pretty sure of is that the general election likely would have been among the dirtiest and nastiest in history, with two very unscrupulous, scheming, disagreeable, and paranoid nominees. LBJ could very well have run his own “dirty tricks” against Nixon, and may have been more inclined to reveal Nixon’s “light treason” to help himself than he was to help Humphrey.

Still, not sure what his path to electoral victory would have been. But if he could pull out wins in a few of the closer states — say Missouri, Kentucky, New Jersey — it could at least deadlock the election like Wallace wanted. Could have been a very dramatic and chaotic election befitting of 1968.

[President Johnson]

The reason I think Lyndon Johnson would have won the 1968 presidential election is because he knew that Nixon was sabotaging the Paris peace talks. There's no way he would have let this go. As much as I like Hubert Humphrey, but Lyndon was a master politician who would have done whatever it takes to win. Furthermore, the incumbency would have allowed him to control the media cycle and convince the public that it wasn't wise to change leadership in the current stage of the war. For example, he could have stopped bombing even earlier (which gave Humphrey new momentum, but a bit too late).

George Wallace remains some factor of uncertainty, though. One-on-one, I think Johnson would have pulled it off.

It's too bad, just imagine that he could have negotiated a sooner end to US involvement as they were relatively close to the terms of the Paris Accords in mid/late 1968. Watergate and subsequent events would never have happened and in 1972, Nelson Rockefeller may very well have succeeded him. And if Johnson didn't make it through his term, the country would have been in good hands with Hubert Humphrey. All of them would have continued the Great Society and improved its programs.

[dw93]

Depends really. I think if the Peace Talks still happen and Nixon's people still sabotage them, LBJ leaks what Nixon did and wins. Nixon is finished as a Public Figure and is likely charged criminally. If the Peace talks still happen and succeed, obviously Johnson wins here too.


If there are no Peace Talks due to Johnson being on the campaign trail and the war more or less goes the same, on top of all the other issues in 1968, Nixon wins by roughly the same margin, give or take a state or two.

[frozenman]

I think  Nixon would of won but i like too seen Johnson won personally.

[KYRockefeller]

I think its a close election, but LBJ probably manages to hold on simply because the Democratic divisions that torpedoed/distracted the party in that race don't bubble to the surface as much.

In this scenario, RFK probably lives as well as he doesn't contest the primary with LBJ and waits to challenge Humphrey in 1972.

[AtorBoltox]

The real winner would be the anti-war movement