This is the electoral map in 2040. What happened? - V2.0

[Biden his time]

Image Link

The electoral college has not been abolished.
Puerto Rico and the District of Columbia now are states as well.
The margins on the map are correct as well, this is a much less geographically polarized era.

I had a much more rigorous methodology for this one than the last map I made (however unlikely this scenario is). This also means I can tell you the exact margins in any state and in many of the largest American metro areas.

Also, on this thread I won't be correcting people like I was in the last one, so more interesting discussion can be generated. After a little while though I will say what statistics I used to generate the map.

2040 United States Presidential Election

Democratic Candidate - 49.2% Pop. Vote - 305 Electoral Votes ✅
Republican Candidate - E.B./E.S. - 49.2% Pop. Vote - 239 Electoral Votes

[Continential]

Why is California Republican and why is Arkansas Democratic?

[If my soul was made of stone]

The Democrats either gave up on fighting fossil fuels or the industry has collapsed entirely by this point. Non-Atlas blue Louisiana also seems to imply that abortion has become a far less relevant issue.

[TML]

Why is California Republican and why is Arkansas Democratic?

This map is made using conventional political colors (i.e. Blue = Democratic; Red = Republican).

[支持核绿派 (Greens4Nuclear)]

A fresh 2021 take on 2020 Skill and Chance’s “blacks trend hard R while Latinos do not” map

[bagelman]

Is Summit OH red?

Wyoming is the real shocker here. Obviously some population influx or something.

[Non Swing Voter]

Butterfly Ballot used on a massive scale

[Chips]

Louisiana and Wyoming are real surprises. As bagelman said, WY had to have some influx. LA must of grown in African-American population. MD and VA are a sign of growing GOP strength among African-Americans in the region. Dems have remained competitive in the Upper Midwest and have made Indiana somewhat competitive though seem to have lost some holding on PA.

[Biden his time]

Is Summit OH red?

Now I can't tell you about Summit County, and neither can I tell you about any specific counties. The database with the statistics I'm using does not have info on specific counties, just states and some of the largest metro areas. Maybe you will be able to figure Summit out, though, if I tell you the exact margins in nearby states and large metro areas (with comparison margins for the 2020 Presidential election in metro areas):


IN 2040: R+0.5 (48.9% D, 49.4% R)
KY 2040: R+12.9 (42.8% D, 55.6% R)
MI 2040: D+2.4 (50.6% D, 48.2% R)
OH 2040: R+2.8 (47.8% D, 50.6% R)
PA 2040: R+0.6 (49.1% D, 49.7% R)
WV 2040: R+13.0 (42.8% D, 55.8% R)


Detroit MSA 2020: D+13.5 (56.0% D, 42.5% R)
Detroit MSA 2040: D+11.0 (54.8% D, 43.7% R)

Pittsburgh MSA 2020: R+2.3 (48.2% D, 50.6% R)
Pittsburgh MSA 2040: R+1.2 (48.8% D, 50.1% R)

Chicago MSA 2020: D+31.2 (64.7% D, 33.5% R)
Chicago MSA 2040: D+9.0 (53.8% D, 44.8% R)


There may be some slight discrepancies between the raw percentages and margins due to rounding.

[GregTheGreat657]

Why is California Republican and why is Arkansas Democratic?

He isn't using the Atlas color scheme

[patzer]

Hurricanes wreck much of the DC and Atlanta urban areas; they never really return to their former glory again. Many urban residents move inland, repopulating and redeveloping Detroit and the midwest. In Louisiana, a Democratic governor sponsors a popular movement for poor black people to settle there and its demographics

Wyoming sees huge development of Cheyenne as part of the Denver front range and Montana also sees huge growth from Californian incomers.

[Schiff for Senate]

Huge disaster in MT/WY, plus gigantic growth and liberalization in WY's ''metropolitan'' areas. LA has both seen massive growth and liberalisation in Shreveport, Baton Rouge and New Orleans, and the Democratic candidate is from there. VA goes red because the GOP candidate hails from there, and because of loss of population in VA's blue areas.

[支持核绿派 (Greens4Nuclear)]

Detroit MSA 2020: D+13.5 (56.0% D, 42.5% R)
Detroit MSA 2040: D+11.0 (54.8% D, 43.7% R)

Pittsburgh MSA 2020: R+2.3 (48.2% D, 50.6% R)
Pittsburgh MSA 2040: R+1.2 (48.8% D, 50.1% R)

Chicago MSA 2020: D+31.2 (64.7% D, 33.5% R)
Chicago MSA 2040: D+9.0 (53.8% D, 44.8% R)

That Chicago MSA 2040 projection is mind-boggling from a 2021 perspective

[Biden his time]

BUMPING with MORE MARGINS:

FLORIDA 2020: R+3.4 (47.8% D, 51.1% R)
FLORIDA 2040: D+4.3 (51.4% D, 47.0% R)

Miami MSA 2020: D+16.2 (57.8% D, 41.6% R)
Miami MSA 2040: D+7.7 (53.1% D, 45.4% R)

Tampa MSA 2020: R+2.6 (48.2% D, 50.7% R)
Tampa MSA 2040: D+12.8 (55.5% D, 42.6% R)

GEORGIA 2020: D+0.2 (49.5% D, 49.2% R)
GEORGIA 2040: R+1.9 (48.4% D, 50.3% R)

Atlanta MSA 2020: D+15.7 (57.2% D, 41.5% R)
Atlanta MSA 2040: D+1.7 (50.1% D, 48.5% R)

SOUTH CAROLINA 2020: R+11.7 (43.4% D, 55.1% R)
SOUTH CAROLINA 2040: R+1.9 (48.4% D, 50.3% R)

NORTH CAROLINA 2020: R+1.3 (48.6% D, 49.9% R)
NORTH CAROLINA 2040: R+3.1 (47.7% D, 50.9% R)

(No that is not a typo, Georgia and South Carolina have the same margins and percentages in 2040!)

[GregTheGreat657]

Fossil fuels are banned in Wyoming, Louisiana and Montana and replaced with renewables. The Sun belt trending blue has mostly been reverted, due to conservatives from places like NY and CA moving there. The Democrats start running more populistic campaigns in order to hold on to the Rust Belt.

[Skill and Chance]

This looks like a return of 1960's style Catholic + Secular (often ex-Catholic) vs. Protestant + Mormon polarization.  IMO very unlikely to actually happen again. 

[Biden his time]

Is Summit OH red?

Wyoming is the real shocker here. Obviously some population influx or something.

Well, while this won't be perfectly in tune with the results I have on the original map, I have attempted to make an Ohio map for you using the same calculations (and a slightly different data source)...

OHIO: R+2.8

Image Link

Map uses Wikipedia color scheme for presidential elections

[R] Republican Candidate - 50.6% ✔️
[D] Democratic Candidate - 47.8%


Notable Counties:

D+13 - Franklin County
D+19 - Cuyahoga County
D+13 - Hamilton County
D+4 - Summit County
D+7 - Montgomery County
D+12 - Lucas County
R+3 - Butler County
D+0 - Stark County
D+6 - Lorain County
R+2 - Warren County


Any requests for other states? I'm definitely doing Florida and California but if you want a map of your state under this scenario just post

[bagelman]

Dems retake Portage, Lake, Wayne, Stark, Erie, Ottawa (not to mention Lorain and Mahoning), take the swing county of Montgomery, take Delaware, and still lose. First impression is that the rural margins are simply massive in favor of R, before I notice that Cuyahoga has swung R+15.

Here are the swings from 2020:

Cuyahoga R+15
Franklin R+18
Hamilton D+3
Summit R+5.5 (probably voted R once by now)
Montgomery D+5
Lucas R+5
Butler D+21
Stark D+18.5 to +19
Lorain D+8.5
Warren D+29

Clearly some big R trend in the urban cores of Cleveland and Columbus, but Cincinnati is corrected by big D trend in the ancestrally R areas of SW Ohio.

[chalmetteowl]

Huge disaster in MT/WY, plus gigantic growth and liberalization in WY's ''metropolitan'' areas. LA has both seen massive growth and liberalisation in Shreveport, Baton Rouge and New Orleans, and the Democratic candidate is from there. VA goes red because the GOP candidate hails from there, and because of loss of population in VA's blue areas.

more likely, if LA becomes a blue "island", i think it would be because the white R's have either died out or moved to TX, and the state is almost fully depopulated outside of its 7 cities (Shreve, Monroe, Alexandria, LC, Laffy, BR, and NOLA)

[Schiff for Senate]

Huge disaster in MT/WY, plus gigantic growth and liberalization in WY's ''metropolitan'' areas. LA has both seen massive growth and liberalisation in Shreveport, Baton Rouge and New Orleans, and the Democratic candidate is from there. VA goes red because the GOP candidate hails from there, and because of loss of population in VA's blue areas.

more likely, if LA becomes a blue "island", i think it would be because the white R's have either died out or moved to TX, and the state is almost fully depopulated outside of its 7 cities (Shreve, Monroe, Alexandria, LC, Laffy, BR, and NOLA)

Another possibility now that I think about it: another Hurricane strikes and Southwest Louisiana becomes an unpopulated wasteland (kind of what you siad but to a smaller scale and likelier to occur). Depending on how much land is wiped out, that paired with growth in LA's big cities should be enough to make the state Democratic-leaning.

[The Invincible Brent Boggs]

Seems like there is a class thing among white people where the white working class swings left and richer white voters swing right. Then, it looks like Hispanic voters swing a bit left and Black voters swing substantially right. Will definitely be interested to see your actual calculations though.

[Independents for Nihilism]

[Agonized-Statism]

Lots of single-issue climate change voters: drought and wildfires in the West and hurricanes and sea level rise threatening life in New Orleans and Florida. The type who would currently be Romney-Clinton voters smell Socialism™ and flip back to the post-Trump GOP.

[Biden his time]

CALIFORNIA: D+9.1

Image Link

Map uses Wikipedia color scheme for presidential elections

[D] Democratic Candidate - 53.7% ✔️
[R] Republican Candidate - 44.7%


Notable Counties:

D+18 - Los Angeles County
D+13 - San Diego County
D+11 - Orange County
D+12 - Riverside County
D+14 - San Bernardino County
D+17 - Santa Clara County
D+26 - Alameda County
D+16 - Sacramento County
D+18 - Contra Costa County
D+9 - Fresno County

[Biden his time]

FLORIDA: D+4.3

Image Link

Map uses Wikipedia color scheme for presidential elections

[D] Democratic Candidate - 51.4% ✔️
[R] Republican Candidate - 47.0%


Notable Counties:

D+21 - Miami-Dade County
D+21 - Broward County
D+14 - Palm Beach County
D+13 - Hillsborough County
D+15 - Orange County
D+16 - Duval County
D+11 - Pinellas County
D+7 - Lee County
D+4 - Polk County
D+4 - Brevard County


These county numbers abrogate previous MSA numbers given a few months back