I crafted up a little list:
- United States of America (STABLE)
- People's Republic of China (QUICKLY RISING)
- Russian Federation (FALLING)
- Republic of India (QUICKLY RISING)
- Republic of Japan (QUICKLY FALLING)
- Federal Republic of Germany (FALLING)
- United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland (FALLING)
- French Republic (FALLING)
- Federative Republic of Brazil (STABLE)
- Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (STABLE)
- Republic of Korea (QUICKLY FALLING)
- Republic of Indonesia (QUICKLY RISING)
- Republic of Turkey (RISING)
- Italian Republic (QUICKLY FALLING)
- United States of Mexico (RISING)
- State of Israel (RISING)
- Federal Republic of Nigeria (RISING)
- Federal Republic of Iran (RISING)
- Islamic Republic of Pakistan (RISING)
- Canada (RISING)
I think it's pretty clear that the Top 5 should be US, China, Russia, Germany, and France/UK. India is not at the same level - and Brazil, Saudi Arabia, Nigeria, Indonesia, and Mexico are ranked too high as well. Just like most other non-European countries. What about the Netherlands instead? A country with a GDP (1.01 trillion USD) much larger than Turkey's (794 bn), Iran's (682 bn), Nigeria's (514 bn), South Africa's (329 bn), or Pakistan's (306 bn) that has lots(!) of influence in both the EU and the UN, and is home to major global companies such as Shell and Airbus.
It seems that many countries on this list are just there because of sheer population size or the "emerging power" label. But in reality, their power is extremely limited - bei it diplomatically, economically, financially, or culturally. Being a relatively big fish in a very small pond (i.e., Nigeria) is not tantamount to real power in any meaningful sense.
Also, Germany is not "falling" and neither is France. But Israel, Brazil, or Saudi Arabia might be.
I think this is a very European centric post. If we act like Europe is the whole world, then of course Nigeria, Pakistan, Mexico, etc will have little to no influence simply because European bubble doesn’t care about those places. Even Sweden or Netherlands will be considered more powerful to European bubble because of what they represent to internal EU dynamics.
That doesn’t change how these other places have very strong influence over tons of places. And I’m not just talking about economical influence here. Often in terms of military power but especially soft power.
I only put Spain in #20 for example, not because of economic power or anything, but because of its cultural ties to Hispanic America, which gives it lots of soft power and accessible relationship with tons and tons of countries in LatAm. Those are TONS of potential markets with a population much greater than Spain. How does Netherlands even threaten to top that?
Mexico in the same way, even if I put it barely outside the top20, is a cultural reference to all Hispanic speaking America, they are strong culture EXPORTERS. Even beyond the Americas, they’re a major symbol for the world. The idea people have when they think of all the region in general, is the idea of Mexico. They’re a strong international brand.
Same reason it’s not smart to underestimate places like Turkey and Egypt (which also has very strong military on top of that), often working as places of regional transition besides everything else they have going for them.
Some things you only get done through diplomatic ties and the more closed in a regional bubble you are, the less influential you are. And that matters, a lot. Because you gotta reach out and talk to others even if they’re different from you. Honestly, Europe separately is kinda its own world nowadays, with decreasing influence over world relations.
Only Germany and France are very relevant on a global scale reach. UK too, but much lesser than a decade ago now that they’re isolated and have no direct power in the EU.
Germany benefits from being the EU leader and an economic reference and France is the biggest cultural reference of Europe, besides also having a very strong military.
South Korea obviously has to be in everyone’s top 10 nowadays imo. They check all of the military + economy + cultural boxes. They’re becoming more relevant in these days than old powers like UK. Everyone listens to K-Pop and loves it.
Top 5 is very clear to me as US, China, Russia, India and Germany (as the EU “leader”). Tbh these are the only five, from my perspective, that I wouldn’t want my country to pick a major fight with because they have lots of leverage in multiple and very diversified ways.
