Rate CO-07 for 2022

[VAR]

New district located in the Denver suburbs (Jefferson and Douglas Counties) that is Polis +3 and Biden +9. Rate it for 2022.

[Not Me, Us]

Lean D for now, but could shift to likely by November. Do we know if there’s an incumbent in the district?

[Roll Roons]

Lean D out of an abundance of caution, but could very well be Likely D in the end. I suspect Colorado’s huge leftward swing was a function of demographic change just as much as it was antipathy to Trumpism.

[Meatball Ron]

Agree w/ previous posters that it's on the border of Lean and Likely D, but it'll depend somewhat on whether Perlmutter runs here or in CO-08.

This is technically the "new" seat, with CO-08 looking more like Perlmutter's current district. But, CO-08 is also 30% Hispanic now and was designed partially to create opportunity for a Hispanic member from Colorado.

So the question is - does Perlmutter just opt for the easier seat (CO-08). Or does he selflessly decide to run in CO-07, which would both create opportunity for a new Hispanic member AND help out the Dems (b/c an incumbent is running in the more competitive district).

Big caveat is that I haven't been able to figure out which one he lives in...

[Gracile]

Agree w/ previous posters that it's on the border of Lean and Likely D, but it'll depend somewhat on whether Perlmutter runs here or in CO-08.

This is technically the "new" seat, with CO-08 looking more like Perlmutter's current district. But, CO-08 is also 30% Hispanic now and was designed partially to create opportunity for a Hispanic member from Colorado.

So the question is - does Perlmutter just opt for the easier seat (CO-08). Or does he selflessly decide to run in CO-07, which would both create opportunity for a new Hispanic member AND help out the Dems (b/c an incumbent is running in the more competitive district).

Big caveat is that I haven't been able to figure out which one he lives in...

He lives in the new CO-07, although very close to the CO-08 border where he could just as easily run in and not be an issue.

[Meatball Ron]

Agree w/ previous posters that it's on the border of Lean and Likely D, but it'll depend somewhat on whether Perlmutter runs here or in CO-08.

This is technically the "new" seat, with CO-08 looking more like Perlmutter's current district. But, CO-08 is also 30% Hispanic now and was designed partially to create opportunity for a Hispanic member from Colorado.

So the question is - does Perlmutter just opt for the easier seat (CO-08). Or does he selflessly decide to run in CO-07, which would both create opportunity for a new Hispanic member AND help out the Dems (b/c an incumbent is running in the more competitive district).

Big caveat is that I haven't been able to figure out which one he lives in...

He lives in the new CO-07, although very close to the CO-08 border where he could just as easily run in and not be an issue.

Oh wow...50 yards from the CO-08 border

https://twitter.com/JesseAPaul/status/1407815467322941441?s=20

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

I'll go with likely D. The greater Denver area, which this potential district covers much of, is zooming leftward. It (the district) shifted 10 points to the left from 2016 on the presidential level.

[Calthrina950]

Lean D out of an abundance of caution, but could very well be Likely D in the end. I suspect Colorado’s huge leftward swing was a function of demographic change just as much as it was antipathy to Trumpism.

You're exactly correct. Colorado, like I've noted before, has had a huge influx of migrants here over the past decade, many of whom are younger, college-educated, and liberal in their political orientation (i.e. the "Californians are invading our state" phenomenon, dreaded by Republicans). These people are obviously bringing their voting habits with them. And yes, many traditionally Republican suburbanites, in Douglas, El Paso, Arapahoe, and Jefferson Counties, have become alienated from the Party in the Age of Trump.

As for this new district, I'll say Lean/Likely D. It's hard for me to see Republicans winning this district unless if they somehow manage to get back to Gardner 2014 or Romney numbers in Douglas County, and that's not going to happen. The most likely outcome is that they lose further ground.

[NewYorkExpress]

Likely D, but it could be Safe D if Democrats are doing well this time next year.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Lean D. But that could be underestimating it due to how I expect the national environment to be.

[patzer]

Safe D- even if the Republicans do well nationally, overturning Biden +9 in a seat so quickly heading left seems virtually impossible.

[SnowLabrador]

Tossup.

[MATTROSE94]

Tossup/Lean Democratic.

[sting in the rafters]

Lean D though closer to Likely than Toss-up. It's clear which way the winds are blowing with regards to population growth and the Denver metro's recent establishment as a stronghold of social liberalism. Trends at the top of the ballot tend to make their way down-ballot over time.

[CookieDamage]

Likely/Safe D. Colorado is zooming left.

Although the borders of this seat can change. I wouldn't be surprised if the map was again redrawn to make Perlmutter's district less Republican, as I think the current CO-7 is D+7 while the new CO-7 will be R+3, which is a hard pill to swallow for DEMs.

[Lognog]

Are there any good candidates like state senators or reps in the area?

[THG]

Lean/Likely D.

Colorado is more similar to Oregon or Washington than any other state politically at this point- a change that rapidly accelerated in the past decade. It's no coincidence that many people currently in the Denver suburbs are typically from the Bay Area.

To merely attribute that state's shift to the left to "Orange Man Bad" demonstrates a very basic understanding of politics.

[NewYorkExpress]

Are there any good candidates like state senators or reps in the area?

Mike Coffman could run here for the Republicans, and he'd easily be their strongest recruit, and probably the only person who could make the seat anywhere near competitive in 2022. The other significant possibility is Kevin Priola.

For the Democrats, there's a much deeper current bench. I think the strongest candidates would be Rachel Zenzinger, Naquetta Ricks, Brianna Titone, Lindsey Daughtery, and Mike Weissman. I also wouldn't be shocked if Andrew Romanoff attempted to run here as well.

[Minnesota Mike]

Are there any good candidates like state senators or reps in the area?

Mike Coffman could run here for the Republicans, and he'd easily be their strongest recruit, and probably the only person who could make the seat anywhere near competitive in 2022. The other significant possibility is Kevin Priola.

For the Democrats, there's a much deeper current bench. I think the strongest candidates would be Rachel Zenzinger, Naquetta Ricks, Brianna Titone, Lindsey Daughtery, and Mike Weissman. I also wouldn't be shocked if Andrew Romanoff attempted to run here as well.

Coffman does not live in CO-07. Now technically that does not matter but most politicians who carpetbag into a district at least have the good form to move there, Coffman can't do that without giving up his current job as mayor of Aurora. I could be wrong but I think it is unlikely he runs.

[NewYorkExpress]

Are there any good candidates like state senators or reps in the area?

Mike Coffman could run here for the Republicans, and he'd easily be their strongest recruit, and probably the only person who could make the seat anywhere near competitive in 2022. The other significant possibility is Kevin Priola.

For the Democrats, there's a much deeper current bench. I think the strongest candidates would be Rachel Zenzinger, Naquetta Ricks, Brianna Titone, Lindsey Daughtery, and Mike Weissman. I also wouldn't be shocked if Andrew Romanoff attempted to run here as well.

Coffman does not live in CO-07. Now technically that does not matter but most politicians who carpetbag into a district at least have the good form to move there, Coffman can't do that without giving up his current job as mayor of Aurora. I could be wrong but I think it is unlikely he runs.

Part of Aurora is in Douglas County. So unless Aurora isn't in the proposed CO-7 at all, Coffman doesn't have to do much carpetbagging.

[Minnesota Mike]

Are there any good candidates like state senators or reps in the area?

Mike Coffman could run here for the Republicans, and he'd easily be their strongest recruit, and probably the only person who could make the seat anywhere near competitive in 2022. The other significant possibility is Kevin Priola.

For the Democrats, there's a much deeper current bench. I think the strongest candidates would be Rachel Zenzinger, Naquetta Ricks, Brianna Titone, Lindsey Daughtery, and Mike Weissman. I also wouldn't be shocked if Andrew Romanoff attempted to run here as well.

Coffman does not live in CO-07. Now technically that does not matter but most politicians who carpetbag into a district at least have the good form to move there, Coffman can't do that without giving up his current job as mayor of Aurora. I could be wrong but I think it is unlikely he runs.

Part of Aurora is in Douglas County. So unless Aurora isn't in the proposed CO-7 at all, Coffman doesn't have to do much carpetbagging.

Aurora is entirely within the proposed CO-06. Not really close at all to CO-07.

https://redistricting.colorado.gov/content/2021-redistricting-maps

[💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)]

Are there any good candidates like state senators or reps in the area?

Brittany Pettersen (sitting state senator) and Andy Kerr (Pettersen's term-limited predecessor and current JeffCo county commission member), both from Lakewood, both announced they would run to replace Perlmutter when Perlmutter was planning on running for gov in 2018. Both have been working on the hill for several sessions and seem pretty well connected. Pettersen outran Polis in the district in 2018.

Tammy Story was also a pretty highly sought after State Senate recruit and was featured pretty prominently as a good investment for flipping the Senate in 2018.

The district isn't great for Ds but of course the state party outran Dems in most other states. It's a well-run party and the educated JeffCo (and growing DougCo) D voter bases will stay loyal and keep showing up to polls. This district in another state would make me sweat more but I have faith in the state party.

Interesting district to look into here is HD 25 which covers much of rural JeffCo. Ds flipped it in 2018 and held it by 3 points in 2020. There isn't really any suburb that tips into the district so it's pure D strength in exurbs (e.g. Evergreen) here.

[coloradocowboi]

Are there any good candidates like state senators or reps in the area?

Mike Coffman could run here for the Republicans, and he'd easily be their strongest recruit, and probably the only person who could make the seat anywhere near competitive in 2022. The other significant possibility is Kevin Priola.

For the Democrats, there's a much deeper current bench. I think the strongest candidates would be Rachel Zenzinger, Naquetta Ricks, Brianna Titone, Lindsey Daughtery, and Mike Weissman. I also wouldn't be shocked if Andrew Romanoff attempted to run here as well.

Not a single one of these people live in the district lol except maybe Titone, but the incumbent congressman who has won in a swing district before does. Perlmutter is likely to run here, especially once the commission has finessed it to his liking.

One reason I rated this district Safe D even though it isn’t on paper is because the Repub bench here is v weak. They are gonna nominate some clown like Tim Neville and lose badly. It’s just what they do.

Even if they nominated someone competent, it’s not a good seat for them. DougCo is moving left fast and Jeffco is largely gone.

[Schiff for Senate]

Likely D or Safe D, depending on how bad the midterms are for Biden. Even then, it may not matter - ticket splitting is rare nowadays (my citation: the 2020 congressional elections in IL-17, WI-03 and MN-07 when compared to prior elections such as the 2016 elections).

[💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)]

Are there any good candidates like state senators or reps in the area?

Mike Coffman could run here for the Republicans, and he'd easily be their strongest recruit, and probably the only person who could make the seat anywhere near competitive in 2022. The other significant possibility is Kevin Priola.

For the Democrats, there's a much deeper current bench. I think the strongest candidates would be Rachel Zenzinger, Naquetta Ricks, Brianna Titone, Lindsey Daughtery, and Mike Weissman. I also wouldn't be shocked if Andrew Romanoff attempted to run here as well.

Not a single one of these people live in the district lol except maybe Titone, but the incumbent congressman who has won in a swing district before does. Perlmutter is likely to run here, especially once the commission has finessed it to his liking.

One reason I rated this district Safe D even though it isn’t on paper is because the Repub bench here is v weak. They are gonna nominate some clown like Tim Neville and lose badly. It’s just what they do.

Even if they nominated someone competent, it’s not a good seat for them. DougCo is moving left fast and Jeffco is largely gone.

Feel like Van Winkle could be a more palatable (but still insane) candidate, maybe even by virtue of not being Neville. He's term-limited and there is some movement to draft him[/i] even if he's drumming it up himself.