Democratic Primaries: Campaign Overview & Results

[Joe Republic]

 

D E M O C R A T I C
P R I M A R I E S


CAMPAIGN OVERVIEW & RESULTS


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This thread will serve as a summary of each candidate's campaign throughout the primaries, and also to provide the results of each primary election.  It'll also be used to keep track of the candidates' finances and available campaign time, as well as the number of convention delegates they'll each have attained.

The main thread where the candidates will actually receive their instructions and post their campaigns can be found here.



The Candidates


Fmr. Sec. Alexander Bernstein (Kansas) - Akno21

Fmr. Sec. Josh Craddock (New York) - Josh22

Sen. Josh Fleming (Utah) - Jtfdem - Withdrawn

Fmr. Sec. Carlos Gonzalez (Washington) - Jerusalemcar5

Fmr. Sec. David Hanover (Kentucky) - Boss Tweed - Withdrawn

Gov. Salvor Hardin (Tennessee) - Speed of Sound

Gov. Andrew Leitch (Nebraska) - Afleitch

Gov. John Mabus (Mississippi) - Harry

Rep. Jackson McDaniels (Louisiana) - Preston - Withdrawn

Rep. Alcon Nighthawk (Washington) - Alcon

Rev. Al Widdershins (Michigan) - Al Realpolitik




Primary Schedule


IA: 2000 initial campaign hours

NH: 60 additional hours

Mini-Tuesday (AZ, DE, MO, NM, ND, OK, SC) 60 hours

MI & WA: 48 hours

ME: 12 hours

TN & VA: 24 hours

NV: 36 hours

WI: 36 hours

HI, ID & UT: 80 hours

Super Tuesday (CA, CT, GA, MD, MA, MN, NY, OH, RI, VT) 80 hours

FL, LA, MS & TX: 80 hours

KS: 36 hours

IL: 36 hours

AK & WY: 48 hours

CO: 288 hours

NC: 48 hours

PA: 120 hours

IN: 80 hours

NE & WV: 80 hours

AR & OR: 80 hours

KY: 80 hours

AL & SD: 80 hours

MT & NJ: 80 hours

[Joe Republic]

I O W A   C A U C U S


INTRODUCTION


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There are 45 convention delegates at stake in this caucus (out of 3,444 in total), and like every other election during primary season, they will be apportioned proportionally according to each candidate's share of the vote here.  However, as in all other primaries, candidates must reach a threshold of 15% of the vote in order to claim a share of the delegates.




Eligible Candidates & Information


Fmr. Sec. Alexander Bernstein (Kansas) - 2000 hours; $12,550,000

Fmr. Sec. Josh Craddock (New York) - 2000 hours; $2,900,000

Sen. Josh Fleming (Utah) - 2000 hours; $1,550,000

Fmr. Sec. Carlos Gonzalez (Washington) - 2000 hours; $5,550,000

Gov. Salvor Hardin (Tennessee) - 2000 hours; $9,650,000

Gov. Andrew Leitch (Nebraska) - 2000 hours; $4,300,000

Gov. John Mabus (Mississippi) - 2000 hours; $7,250,000

Rep. Alcon Nighthawk (Washington) - 2000 hours; $2,600,000

Rev. Al Widdershins (Michigan) - 2000 hours; $6,550,000




Iowa Pre-Polls

The following poll results are based on a collection of straw polls, carried out well before the candidates effectively began their campaigns.  They are to be used as a rough guide on how the candidates fare before they begin campaigning, and not as evidence of an impending victory or loss.


Hardin 7.1%
Mabus 6.9%
Bernstein 5.7%
Fleming 5.7%
Gonzalez 5.7%
Leitch 5.4%
Widdershins 3.4%
Craddock 2.7%
Nighthawk 2.5%
Undecided 55.0%




Specific Information

Some campaign activities vary in cost depending on its number of congressional districts.  Iowa has five districts, which means that the following activities will cost as follows:

• Level 1 campaign organization costs $100,000 per district, so for Iowa it'll cost $500,000 in total.
  
• Level 2 campaign organization costs $200,000 per district, so for Iowa it'll cost $1,000,000 in total.
  
• Level 3 campaign organization costs $300,000 per district, so for Iowa it'll cost $1,500,000 in total.
  
  
  
• For every three hours per district spent on general campaigning, you earn one 'point'.  So three hours multiplied by five districts equals one point for every fifteen hours spent campaigning.
  
  
  
• A level 1 campaign ad costs $50,000 per district, so for Iowa it'll cost $250,000 in total.
  
• A level 2 campaign ad costs $100,000 per district, so for Iowa it'll cost $500,000 in total.
  
• A level 1 campaign ad costs $150,000 per district, so for Iowa it'll cost $750,000 in total.

[Joe Republic]

Fmr. Sec. Alexander Bernstein



Iowa Caucus Campaign

2000 campaign hours available

$12,550,000 in funds

• Fundraising
  
  - 350 hours
  
  + $1,697,490
  
  
  
• Organization
  
  Level 3 (@ $300,000 per district) x 5 districts
  
  - $1,500,000
  
  
  
• Speeches
  
  

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  - 2 hours
  
  

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• General Campaigning
  
  - 950 hours
  
  
  
• Campaign Ads
  
  

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  - $750,000
  
  

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  - $0
  
  

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  - $0
  
  
  

698 campaign hours remaining

$11,997,490 in funds remaining

[Joe Republic]

Fmr. Sec. Josh Craddock



Iowa Caucus Campaign

2000 campaign hours available

$2,900,000 in funds

• Fundraising
  
  - 500 hours
  
  + $2,555,010
  
  
  
• Organization
  
  Level 0 (@ $0,000 per district) x 5 districts
  
  - $0
  
  
  
• Speeches
  
  

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  - 0 hours
  
  

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• General Campaigning
  
  - 200 hours
  
  
  
• Campaign Ads
  
  

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  - $0
  
  

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  - $0
  
  

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  - $0
  
  
  

1300 campaign hours remaining

$5,455,010 in funds remaining

[Joe Republic]

Sen. Josh Fleming



Iowa Caucus Campaign

2000 campaign hours available

$1,550,000 in funds

• Fundraising
  
  - 800 hours
  
  + $4,101,370
  
  
  
• Organization
  
  Level 1 (@ $100,000 per district) x 5 districts
  
  - $500,000
  
  
  
• Speeches
  
  

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  - 0 hours
  
  
  
• General Campaigning
  
  - 500 hours
  
  
  
• Campaign Ads
  
  

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  - $0
  
  

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  - $0
  
  

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  - $0
  
  
  

700 campaign hours remaining

$5,151,370 in funds remaining

[Joe Republic]

Fmr. Sec. Carlos Gonzalez



Iowa Caucus Campaign

2000 campaign hours available

$5,550,000 in funds

• Fundraising
  
  - 500 hours
  
  + $2,379,080
  
  
  
• Organization
  
  Level 1 (@ $100,000 per district) x 5 districts
  
  - $500,000
  
  
  
• Speeches
  
  

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  - 2 hours
  
  

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  - 0 hours
  
  
  
• General Campaigning
  
  - 600 hours
  
  
  
• Campaign Ads
  
  

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  - $0
  
  

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  - $0
  
  

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  - $0
  
  
  

898 campaign hours remaining

$7,429,080 in funds remaining

[Joe Republic]

Gov. Salvor Hardin



Iowa Caucus Campaign

2000 campaign hours available

$9,650,000 in funds

• Fundraising
  
  - 700 hours
  
  + $3,630,740
  
  
  
• Organization
  
  Level 2 (@ $200,000 per district) x 5 districts
  
  - $1,000,000
  
  
  
• Speeches
  
  

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  - 0 hours
  
  
  
• General Campaigning
  
  - 950 hours
  
  
  
• Campaign Ads
  
  

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  - $500,000
  
  

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  - $0
  
  

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  - $0
  
  
  

350 campaign hours remaining

$11,780,740 in funds remaining

[Joe Republic]

Gov. Andrew Leitch



Iowa Caucus Campaign

2000 campaign hours available

$4,300,000 in funds

• Fundraising
  
  - 400 hours
  
  + $1,995,170
  
  
  
• Organization
  
  Level 1 (@ $100,000 per district) x 5 districts
  
  - $500,000
  
  
  
• Speeches
  
  

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  - 0 hours
  
  

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  - 0 hours
  
  
  
• General Campaigning
  
  - 1200 hours
  
  
  
• Campaign Ads
  
  

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  - $500,000
  
  

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  (- $500,000)
  
  

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  - $0
  
  
  

400 campaign hours remaining

$5,295,170 in funds remaining

[Joe Republic]

Gov. John Mabus



Iowa Caucus Campaign

2000 campaign hours available

$7,250,000 in funds

• Fundraising
  
  - 300 hours
  
  + $1,468,490
  
  
  
• Organization
  
  Level 3 (@ $300,000 per district) x 5 districts
  
  - $1,500,000
  
  
  
• Speeches
  
  

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  - 2 hours
  
  

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  - 2 hours
  
  

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  - 0 hours
  
  

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  - 0 hours
  
  
  
• General Campaigning
  
  - 1300 hours
  
  
  
• Campaign Ads
  
  

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  - $500,000
  
  

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  (- $500,000)
  
  

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  - $0
  
  
  

396 campaign hours remaining

$6,718,490 in funds remaining

[Joe Republic]

Rep. Alcon Nighthawk



Iowa Caucus Campaign

2000 campaign hours available

$2,600,000 in funds

• Fundraising
  
  - 0 hours
  
  + $0
  
  
  
• Organization
  
  Level 0 (@ $0,000 per district) x 5 districts
  
  - $0
  
  
  
• Speeches
  
  

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  - 0 hours
  
  

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  - 0 hours
  
  
  
• General Campaigning
  
  - 0 hours
  
  
  
• Campaign Ads
  
  

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  - $0
  
  

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  - $0
  
  

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  - $0
  
  
  

2000 campaign hours remaining

$2,600,000 in funds remaining

[Joe Republic]

Rev. Al Widdershins



Iowa Caucus Campaign

2000 campaign hours available

$6,550,000 in funds

• Fundraising
  
  - 200 hours
  
  + $976,270
  
  
  
• Organization
  
  Level 2 (@ $200,000 per district) x 5 districts
  
  - $1,000,000
  
  
  
• Speeches
  
  

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  - 2 hours
  
  

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  - 2 hours
  
  

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  - 2 hours
  
  

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  - 0 hours
  
  

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  - 0 hours
  
  
  
• General Campaigning
  
  - 800 hours
  
  
  
• Campaign Ads
  
  

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  - $750,000
  
  

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  - $0
  
  

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  - $0
  
  
  

994 campaign hours remaining

$5,776,270 in funds remaining

[Joe Republic]

IOWA CAUCUS RESULTS

With 99% of precincts reporting, I'm pleased to announce that the winner of the Democratic Iowa Caucus is:


Governor John Mabus of Mississippi!!


The full results are as follows:

Mabus 20.8%
Bernstein 18.3%
Widdershins 16.7%
Leitch 15.1%
Hardin 13.2%
Gonzalez 7.1%
Fleming 6.3%
Craddock 2.5%
Nighthawk (Did not contest) 0.0%



ANALYSIS

Dark horse John Mabus may well have pulled a surprise win here in Iowa, but with only one in five voters backing him, the victory could hardly be called 'huge'.  In fact, the top five finishing candidates were all within a handful of points from each other, and it really could have gone either way.

Mabus' win was due largely to his efficient (and well funded) campaign organization on the ground, which was matched in strength only by second place finisher Alex Bernstein.  Mabus also spent the most time out of all the candidates out on the campaign trail; spending a phenomenal total of 1300 hours all across the state.  He also produced two fine speeches, but a lackluster TV ad failed to really hit the mark.  The main question people want to know is; can he increase his slender lead as we head into New Hampshire?

Alex Bernstein ran a surprisingly effective campaign, which placed him only 2.5% behind Mabus.  As already mentioned, his campaign organization was on a par with Mabus', which certainly helped him to stay in the higher tier.  His political outlook also resonated better with Iowa Democrats, and a decent speech and excellent TV ad helped him too.  Spending 950 hours on the campaign trail certainly helped boost his name recognition.  Pundits speculate that if he'd spent more time doing just that, he might even have scraped into the lead.

The Reverend Al Widdershins caused upset by sneaking into a highly respectable third place position.  Pundits are claiming a relatively strong campaign infrastructure and a large amount of time spent on the campaign trail as mainly responsible for this.  His passionate populist message was made clear by two respectable speeches and a high quality TV ad.

Fourth place finisher Andrew Leitch's key strength was in the western half of the state; particularly in counties that border his own state of Nebraska.  An incredibly long period of time on the campaign trail (at 1200 hours, he was second only to Mabus) and a top-notch TV ad certainly helped him scrape into the delegate threshold, but a lack of any key speeches and a relatively weak campaign organization probably held him back from the top tiers.

Salvor Hardin will probably be disappointed with taking fifth place, especially since initial straw polls showed him in the lead.  Again, a lack of any notable speeches and a mediocre ad were mainly to blame for this.  However, a strong organization, real strength on the issues, and an extended period of time on the campaign trail helped keep him within eight points of victory.

Carlos Gonzalez failed to achieve more than single digits, which will probably come as a disappointment to him.  A fairly weak organization and an average speech were mainly to blame for this, but his strength on the issues shows promise.  And will his thriftiness with his funds and campaign time prove to see him through right to the end?

Outsider candidate Josh Fleming was spared the last place position, due mainly to his time spent on the campaign trail and a satisfactory (albeit weak) campaign organization to go with it.  Still, a few key speeches or ads certainly wouldn't have hurt his chances.  A great deal of time spent fundraising helped Fleming leave Iowa far richer than when he got here (an unusual feat), so there's still hope for him yet.

In last place with a dismal single digit result is Josh Craddock.  Mainly to blame for his disastrous result was a total lack of organization, speeches or ads, and a paltry 200 hours spent on the trail.  Nevertheless, a major fundraising drive has doubled his war chest, and his position as the only Northeasterner in the race will most likely help him in the upcoming New Hampshire battle.

Alcon Nighthawk, the maverick congressman, did not contest the Iowa Caucus.  A bold move perhaps, given his outsider status.  Time will tell if he's got any aces up his sleeve.



DELEGATE COUNT

Iowa Caucus

Mabus – 13
Bernstein – 12
Widdershins – 11
Leitch – 9

Totals

Mabus – 13
Bernstein – 12
Widdershins – 11
Leitch – 9
Craddock – 0
Fleming – 0
Gonzalez – 0
Hardin – 0
Nighthawk – 0



POST-ELECTION SPEECHES

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[Joe Republic]

N E W   H A M P S H I R E
P R I M A R Y


INTRODUCTION


------------------------------------

There are 22 convention delegates at stake in this primary (out of 3,444 in total), and like every other election during primary season, they will be apportioned proportionally according to each candidate's share of the vote here.  However, as in all other primaries, candidates must reach a threshold of 15% of the vote in order to claim a share of the delegates.




Eligible Candidates & Time Availability


Fmr. Sec. Alexander Bernstein (Kansas) - 758 hours; $11,997,490

Fmr. Sec. Josh Craddock (New York) - 1360 hours; $5,455,010

Sen. Josh Fleming (Utah) - 760 hours; $5,151,370 - Withdrawn

Fmr. Sec. Carlos Gonzalez (Washington) - 958 hours; $7,429,080

Gov. Salvor Hardin (Tennessee) - 410 hours; $11,780,740

Gov. Andrew Leitch (Nebraska) - 460 hours; $5,295,170

Gov. John Mabus (Mississippi) - 456 hours; $6,718,490

Rep. Alcon Nighthawk (Washington) - 2060 hours; $2,600,000

Rev. Al Widdershins (Michigan) - 1054 hours; $5,776,270




New Hampshire Pre-Polls

The following poll results are based on a collection of straw polls, carried out well before the candidates effectively began their campaigns.  They are to be used as a rough guide on how the candidates fare before they begin campaigning, and not as evidence of an impending victory or loss.


Mabus 8.2%
Hardin 8.1%
Bernstein 6.3%
Fleming 6.2%
Gonzalez 5.8%
Leitch 5.5%
Craddock 3.9%
Widdershins 3.0%
Nighthawk 2.9%
Undecided 50.0%




Specific Information

Some campaign activities vary in cost depending on its number of congressional districts.  New Hampshire has two districts, which means that the following activities will cost as follows:

• Level 1 campaign organization costs $100,000 per district, so for New Hampshire it'll cost $200,000 in total.
  
• Level 2 campaign organization costs $200,000 per district, so for New Hampshire it'll cost $400,000 in total.
  
• Level 3 campaign organization costs $300,000 per district, so for New Hampshire it'll cost $600,000 in total.
  
  
  
• For every three hours per district spent on general campaigning, you earn one 'point'.  So three hours multiplied by two districts equals one point for every six hours spent campaigning.
  
  
  
• A level 1 campaign ad costs $50,000 per district, so for New Hampshire it'll cost $100,000 in total.
  
• A level 2 campaign ad costs $100,000 per district, so for New Hampshire it'll cost $200,000 in total.
  
• A level 3 campaign ad costs $150,000 per district, so for New Hampshire it'll cost $300,000 in total.

[Joe Republic]

NEW HAMPSHIRE
DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY DEBATE

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Continues...

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Closing statements:

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[Joe Republic]

Fmr. Sec. Alexander Bernstein



New Hampshire Primary Campaign

758 campaign hours available

$11,997,490 in funds

• Fundraising
  
  - 100 hours
  
  + $501,230
  
  
  
• Organization
  
  Level 3 (@ $300,000 per district x 2 districts)
  
  - $600,000
  
  
  
• Speeches
  
  

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  - 2 hours
  
  

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  - 2 hours
  
  

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  - 0 hours
  
  

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• General Campaigning
  
  - 425 hours
  
  
  
• Campaign Ads
  
  

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  - $300,000
  
  

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  - $300,000
  
  

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  - $0
  
  
  

229 campaign hours remaining

$11,298,720 in funds remaining

[Joe Republic]

Fmr. Sec. Josh Craddock



New Hampshire Primary Campaign

1360 campaign hours available

$5,455,010 in funds

• Fundraising
  
  - 0 hours
  
  + $0
  
  
  
• Organization
  
  Level 2 (@ $200,000 per district x 2 districts)
  
  - $400,000
  
  
  
• Speeches
  
  

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  - 2 hours
  
  

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  - 0 hours
  
  

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• General Campaigning
  
  - 500 hours
  
  
  
• Campaign Ads
  
  

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  - $0
  
  

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  - $0
  
  

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  - $0
  
  
  

858 campaign hours remaining

$5,055,010 in funds remaining

[Joe Republic]

Fmr. Sec. Carlos Gonzalez



New Hampshire Primary Campaign

958 campaign hours available

$7,429,080 in funds

• Fundraising
  
  - 0 hours
  
  + $0
  
  
  
• Organization
  
  Level 3 (@ $300,000 per district x 2 districts)
  
  - $600,000
  
  
  
• Speeches
  
  

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  - 0 hours
  
  

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  - 0 hours
  
  
  
• General Campaigning
  
  - 400 hours
  
  
  
• Campaign Ads
  
  

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  (- $300,000)
  
  

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  - $0
  
  

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  - $0
  
  
  

558 campaign hours remaining

$6,829,080 in funds remaining

[Joe Republic]

Gov. Salvor Hardin



New Hampshire Primary Campaign

410 campaign hours available

$11,780,740 in funds

• Fundraising
  
  - 0 hours
  
  + $0
  
  
  
• Organization
  
  Level 2 (@ $200,000 per district x 2 districts)
  
  - $400,000
  
  
  
• Speeches
  
  

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  - 2 hours
  
  

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  - 0 hours
  
  

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  - 0 hours
  
  

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  - 0 hours
  
  

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  - 0 hours
  
  
  
• General Campaigning
  
  - 200 hours
  
  
  
• Campaign Ads
  
  

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  - $200,000
  
  

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  - $0
  
  

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  - $0
  
  
  

208 campaign hours remaining

$11,180,740 in funds remaining

[Joe Republic]

Gov. Andrew Leitch



New Hampshire Primary Campaign

460 campaign hours available

$5,295,170 in funds

• Fundraising
  
  - 0 hours
  
  + $0
  
  
  
• Organization
  
  Level 2 (@ $200,000 per district x 2 districts)
  
  - $400,000
  
  
  
• Speeches
  
  

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  - 0 hours
  
  

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  - 0 hours
  
  

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  - 0 hours
  
  

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  - 0 hours
  
  

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  - 0 hours
  
  
  
• General Campaigning
  
  - 0 hours
  
  
  
• Campaign Ads
  
  

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  - $200,000
  
  

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  - $0
  
  

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  - $0
  
  
  

460 campaign hours remaining

$4,695,170 in funds remaining

[Joe Republic]

Gov. John Mabus



New Hampshire Primary Campaign

456 campaign hours available

$6,718,490 in funds

• Fundraising
  
  - 0 hours
  
  + $0
  
  
  
• Organization
  
  Level 1 (@ $100,000 per district x 2 districts)
  
  - $200,000
  
  
  
• Speeches
  
  

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  - 0 hours
  
  

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  - 0 hours
  
  

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  - 0 hours
  
  

  You must be logged in to read this quote.

  - 0 hours
  
  

  You must be logged in to read this quote.

  - 0 hours
  
  
  
• General Campaigning
  
  - 50 hours
  
  
  
• Campaign Ads
  
  

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  - $0
  
  

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  - $0
  
  

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  - $0
  
  
  

406 campaign hours remaining

$6,518,490 in funds remaining

[Joe Republic]

Rep. Alcon Nighthawk



New Hampshire Primary Campaign

2060 campaign hours available

$2,600,000 in funds

• Fundraising
  
  - 0 hours
  
  + $0
  
  
  
• Organization
  
  Level 0 (@ $000,000 per district x 2 districts)
  
  - $0
  
  
  
• Speeches
  
  

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  - 0 hours
  
  

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  - 0 hours
  
  

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  - 0 hours
  
  

  You must be logged in to read this quote.

  - 0 hours
  
  

  You must be logged in to read this quote.

  - 0 hours
  
  
  
• General Campaigning
  
  - 0 hours
  
  
  
• Campaign Ads
  
  

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  - $0
  
  

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  - $0
  
  

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  - $0
  
  
  

2060 campaign hours remaining

$2,600,000 in funds remaining

[Joe Republic]

Rev. Al Widdershins



New Hampshire Primary Campaign

1054 campaign hours available

$5,776,270 in funds

• Fundraising
  
  - 400 hours
  
  + $2,027,580
  
  
  
• Organization
  
  Level 0 (@ $000,000 per district x 2 districts)
  
  - $0
  
  
  
• Speeches
  
  

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  - 0 hours
  
  

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  - 0 hours
  
  

  You must be logged in to read this quote.

  - 0 hours
  
  

  You must be logged in to read this quote.

  - 0 hours
  
  

  You must be logged in to read this quote.

  - 0 hours
  
  
  
• General Campaigning
  
  - 0 hours
  
  
  
• Campaign Ads
  
  

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  - $0
  
  

  You must be logged in to read this quote.

  - $0
  
  

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  - $0
  
  
  

654 campaign hours remaining

$7,803,850 in funds remaining