1856: No Fillmore?

[TommyC1776]

What if Millard Fillmore hadn't of run in 1856?  Would Buchanan have won 100% in each Southern state?  Did Fillmore almost have to run to keep the Whig party alive, a little longer anyways?  And, did Fillmore take some votes away from Fremont?

[DWPerry]

Assuming that Fremont gets all of Fillmore's votes it would be an Electoral Tie!
State   EV   EV   Buchanan   Fremont   Other   Buchanan   Fremont   Other
Alabama   9   0   62.08%   37.92%   0.00%   46,739   28,552   0
Arkansas   4   0   67.12%   32.88%   0.00%   21,910   10,732   0
California   0   4   48.38%   51.61%   0.01%   53,342   56,899   14
Connecticut   0   6   43.57%   56.44%   0.00%   34,997   45,332   0
Delaware   3   0   54.83%   45.11%   0.06%   8,004   6,585   9
Florida   3   0   56.81%   43.19%   0.00%   6,358   4,833   0
Georgia   10   0   57.14%   42.86%   0.00%   56,581   42,439   0
Illinois   0   11   44.09%   55.91%   0.00%   105,528   133,806   0
Indiana   13   0   50.41%   49.60%   0.00%   118,670   116,761   0
Iowa   0   4   40.70%   59.30%   0.00%   37,568   54,742   0
Kentucky   12   0   52.54%   47.46%   0.00%   74,642   67,416   0
Louisiana   6   0   51.70%   48.30%   0.00%   22,164   20,709   0
Maine   0   8   35.68%   64.32%   0.00%   39,140   70,549   0
Maryland   0   8   45.04%   54.96%   0.00%   39,123   47,737   0
Massachusetts   0   13   23.08%   75.15%   1.77%   39,244   127,798   3,006
Michigan   0   6   41.52%   58.47%   0.00%   52,139   73,422   0
Mississippi   7   0   59.44%   40.56%   0.00%   35,456   24,191   0
Missouri   9   0   54.43%   45.57%   0.00%   57,964   48,522   0
New Hampshire   0   5   45.71%   54.30%   0.00%   31,891   37,883   0
New Jersey   0   7   47.23%   52.77%   0.00%   46,943   52,453   0
New York   0   35   32.84%   67.16%   0.00%   195,878   400,608   0
North Carolina   10   0   56.78%   43.22%   0.00%   48,243   36,720   0
Ohio   0   23   44.21%   55.79%   0.00%   170,874   215,623   0
Pennsylvania   27   0   50.13%   49.87%   0.00%   230,686   229,475   0
Rhode Island   0   4   33.70%   66.30%   0.00%   6,680   13,142   0
Tennessee   12   0   52.18%   47.82%   0.00%   69,704   63,878   0
Texas   4   0   66.59%   33.41%   0.00%   31,169   15,639   0
Vermont   0   5   20.84%   79.03%   0.13%   10,577   40,106   65
Virginia   15   0   59.96%   40.04%   0.00%   90,083   60,150   0
Wisconsin   0   5   44.22%   55.78%   0.00%   52,843   66,669   0
Total   144   144   45.29%   54.63%   0.08%   1,835,140   2,213,371   3,094

[True Democrat]

I highly doubt that Fremont would have gotten even a large percentage of Fillmore's votes.  Do you really think Fremont could win Maryland when Lincoln got under 5% or something?

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Take away Filmore and the Whig party, and the American Party would still have un somebody in 1856, say Andrew Donelson.  About the best he could have hoped for would have been to take Kentucky, Louisiana, and Tennessee himself (30 EV) and swing Illinois to Fremont (11 EV).

Fremont 144 EV
Buchannan 143 EV
Donelson 38 EV

That probably leads to Donelson as President and Breckinridge as Vice President given the composition of the lame duck Congress that would have decided the election.

[TommyC1776]

Take away Filmore and the Whig party, and the American Party would still have un somebody in 1856, say Andrew Donelson.  About the best he could have hoped for would have been to take Kentucky, Louisiana, and Tennessee himself (30 EV) and swing Illinois to Fremont (11 EV).

Fremont 144 EV
Buchannan 143 EV
Donelson 38 EV

That probably leads to Donelson as President and Breckinridge as Vice President given the composition of the lame duck Congress that would have decided the election.

How would Donelson and Breckinridge get elected?  They weren't (and wouldn't have been, anyways, if Andrew Donelson was the Presidential candidate for the Know-Nothings) on the same ticket.  Donelson would've done better than Fillmore?

[DWPerry]

Take away Filmore and the Whig party, and the American Party would still have un somebody in 1856, say Andrew Donelson.  About the best he could have hoped for would have been to take Kentucky, Louisiana, and Tennessee himself (30 EV) and swing Illinois to Fremont (11 EV).

Fremont 144 EV
Buchannan 143 EV
Donelson 38 EV

That probably leads to Donelson as President and Breckinridge as Vice President given the composition of the lame duck Congress that would have decided the election.

How would Donelson and Breckinridge get elected?  They weren't (and wouldn't have been, anyways, if Andrew Donelson was the Presidential candidate for the Know-Nothings) on the same ticket.  Donelson would've done better than Fillmore?

In an election with no electoral majority, the House elects the President and the Senate elects the VP.

[True Democrat]

Take away Filmore and the Whig party, and the American Party would still have un somebody in 1856, say Andrew Donelson.  About the best he could have hoped for would have been to take Kentucky, Louisiana, and Tennessee himself (30 EV) and swing Illinois to Fremont (11 EV).

Fremont 144 EV
Buchannan 143 EV
Donelson 38 EV

That probably leads to Donelson as President and Breckinridge as Vice President given the composition of the lame duck Congress that would have decided the election.

How would Donelson and Breckinridge get elected?  They weren't (and wouldn't have been, anyways, if Andrew Donelson was the Presidential candidate for the Know-Nothings) on the same ticket.  Donelson would've done better than Fillmore?

I believe he is implying that the composition of the House would have elected Donelson.  However, the Senate only gets to choose between the top two finishers, so Donelson's VP was not eligible.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Take away Filmore and the Whig party, and the American Party would still have un somebody in 1856, say Andrew Donelson.  About the best he could have hoped for would have been to take Kentucky, Louisiana, and Tennessee himself (30 EV) and swing Illinois to Fremont (11 EV).

Fremont 144 EV
Buchannan 143 EV
Donelson 38 EV

That probably leads to Donelson as President and Breckinridge as Vice President given the composition of the lame duck Congress that would have decided the election.

How would Donelson and Breckinridge get elected?  They weren't (and wouldn't have been, anyways, if Andrew Donelson was the Presidential candidate for the Know-Nothings) on the same ticket.  Donelson would've done better than Fillmore?

I believe he is implying that the composition of the House would have elected Donelson.  However, the Senate only gets to choose between the top two finishers, so Donelson's VP was not eligible.

Exactly.  With Breckenridge receiving the votes of all southern Senators plus those of northern Democrats he easily is elected VP in the Senate.  There are insufficient Democrats to elect Buchannan in the House with Donelson  also on the House ballot (1854 was a terrible year for the Democrats and the lame duck House will be doing the electing).  The Republicans and Americans in that Congress had united to elect an "Opposition" Speaker, and given the impossibility of Southern Representatives voting for Fremont, they will instead unite behind Donelson.