If Portugal were the 27th Brazilian state...

[buritobr]

It is hard to make a parellel between the politics of the US and the UK, but both are high income countries.

A parallel between the politics of Brazil and Portugal is even harder, because Portugal is a high income country and Brazil is a medium income country.

The closest parallel it is possible to make is the following:
DEM = CDS
PSDB = PSD
PT = PS
PSOL = Bloco de esquerda

However, this comparison is not 100% accurate. In Brazil, even the moderate PT has good relations with the governments of Cuba, Venezuela and China, and also with the governments of Russia, Iran and the Palestine. This is much more third world geopolitics than left-wing politics.
I don't think the portuguese PS voters would support these views.

[Former President tack50]

I guess both Bolsonaro and PT would get pretty bad results in Portugal, with Bolsonaro around 10% and PT at 20%?

The non-PT left would get fairly good results in Portugal though (perhaps Ciro Gomes would carry Portugal?). Similarly Portugal's right would have probably stuck with PSDB

Then again as always it depends on the scenario. In a scenario where Portugal joins Brazil in idk, 1990; Portugal's right probably flips to Bolsonaro much like it did in Brazil. In fact being a wealthy country, perhaps Portugal might be a Bolsonaro stronghold?

The real question is what if Angola, Mozambique, Cabo Verde and Guinea-Bissau joined as the 28th-31st states of Brazil

[Mike88]

The PT from 2002-2012, would have good results in Portugal, but the current PT not so much, IMO. I would say that PDT would easily win in Portugal and lead the center-left. The PSDB or the PSD would dominate the right, with the DEM gaining the christian democratic vote. NOVO would appeal to liberal voters, while PSL or the PATRIOTAS the far-right. Overall, something like this:

PDT = PS
PSDB/PSD = PSD
PSOL = BE
PCdoB = PCP
DEM = CDS
PV = PAN
NOVO = IL
PSL/PATRIOTAS = CHEGA

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

The PT from 2002-2012, would have good results in Portugal, but the current PT not so much, IMO. I would say that PDT would easily win in Portugal and lead the center-left. The PSDB or the PSD would dominate the right, with the DEM gaining the christian democratic vote. NOVO would appeal to liberal voters, while PSL or the PATRIOTAS the far-right. Overall, something like this:

PDT = PS
PSDB/PSD = PSD
PSOL = BE
PCdoB = PCP
DEM = CDS
PV = PAN
NOVO = IL
PSL/PATRIOTAS = CHEGA

What do you see the 2018 runoff looking like?

[Mike88]

What do you see the 2018 runoff looking like?

Maybe a 80-20% win for Haddad, IMO. Although with a high abstention and maybe a lot of invalid votes.

[Mike88]

However, this comparison is not 100% accurate. In Brazil, even the moderate PT has good relations with the governments of Cuba, Venezuela and China, and also with the governments of Russia, Iran and the Palestine. This is much more third world geopolitics than left-wing politics.
I don't think the portuguese PS voters would support these views.

Well, for a period of time, the Sócrates PS government, which is also involved with Lula in some shady deals, had a really good relation with Venezuela and even a lot of trade deals were signed. The main deals was Portuguese exports of a laptop "Magalhães" for kids. This turned to be a fiasco, at least here in Portugal. Cuba has good relations with Portugal and even sends doctors to some parts of Portugal, mainly rural areas. Regarding China, Portugal has good relations with China as the Chinese control or have a lot of shares in big important companies like Energies of Portugal - EDP, the National Energy Network (REN), Fidelidade insurance and Luz Hospitals.

[buritobr]

However, this comparison is not 100% accurate. In Brazil, even the moderate PT has good relations with the governments of Cuba, Venezuela and China, and also with the governments of Russia, Iran and the Palestine. This is much more third world geopolitics than left-wing politics.
I don't think the portuguese PS voters would support these views.

Well, for a period of time, the Sócrates PS government, which is also involved with Lula in some shady deals, had a really good relation with Venezuela and even a lot of trade deals were signed. The main deals was Portuguese exports of a laptop "Magalhães" for kids. This turned to be a fiasco, at least here in Portugal. Cuba has good relations with Portugal and even sends doctors to some parts of Portugal, mainly rural areas. Regarding China, Portugal has good relations with China as the Chinese control or have a lot of shares in big important companies like Energies of Portugal - EDP, the National Energy Network (REN), Fidelidade insurance and Luz Hospitals.

It is good to have these relations that benefit both countries

[buritobr]

There is a difference between the far-right of both countries: André Ventura is not as disgusting as Bolsonaro. And even though, he had only 10%

[CumbrianLefty]

There is a difference between the far-right of both countries: André Ventura is not as disgusting as Bolsonaro. And even though, he had only 10%

Though that may to a degree just be his being less powerful?

[Mike88]

There is a difference between the far-right of both countries: André Ventura is not as disgusting as Bolsonaro. And even though, he had only 10%

Though that may to a degree just be his being less powerful?

Well, Ventura is more like a sheep in wolf's clothing, as his views are not consistent and changed dramatically in the last 3/4 years. Ventura wants power, no doubt about that, and he's not stupid, but he's a hypocrite as he is "seeling" stuff he really doesn't believe in. What he will do, if he gains some power one day, is a big, big question mark.

[Red Velvet]

There is a difference between the far-right of both countries: André Ventura is not as disgusting as Bolsonaro. And even though, he had only 10%

Though that may to a degree just be his being less powerful?

Ventura is more of an opportunist riding on a far-right global narrative to be more politically relevant in the current moment.

Bolsonaro is that too but he also strongly believes in most of what he says. He’s been saying the same stuff for the last 30 years so it’s not just a political performance act on his part.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

What do you see the 2018 runoff looking like?

Maybe a 80-20% win for Haddad, IMO. Although with a high abstention and maybe a lot of invalid votes.

I dunno if that's really believable, since 2018 saw a pretty sharp class divide, and most of Portugal is pretty wealthy by Brazilian standards.

[Mike88]

What do you see the 2018 runoff looking like?

Maybe a 80-20% win for Haddad, IMO. Although with a high abstention and maybe a lot of invalid votes.

I dunno if that's really believable, since 2018 saw a pretty sharp class divide, and most of Portugal is pretty wealthy by Brazilian standards.

Bolsonaro wouldn't appeal to upper classes in Portugal, not even the middle class. Bolsonaro would appeal to some people, from the lower classes to upper classes, who would be fed up with corruption and the status quo, but the vast majority would reject him as he is crazy and his agenda was inconsistent.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

What do you see the 2018 runoff looking like?

Maybe a 80-20% win for Haddad, IMO. Although with a high abstention and maybe a lot of invalid votes.

I dunno if that's really believable, since 2018 saw a pretty sharp class divide, and most of Portugal is pretty wealthy by Brazilian standards.

Bolsonaro wouldn't appeal to upper classes in Portugal, not even the middle class. Bolsonaro would appeal to some people, from the lower classes to upper classes, who would be fed up with corruption and the status quo, but the vast majority would reject him as he is crazy and his agenda was inconsistent.

So it would be right-friendly (with a substantial left vote) due to class voting, but strongly anti-Bolsonaro to the point of preferring the PT to him.

[Mike88]

What do you see the 2018 runoff looking like?

Maybe a 80-20% win for Haddad, IMO. Although with a high abstention and maybe a lot of invalid votes.

I dunno if that's really believable, since 2018 saw a pretty sharp class divide, and most of Portugal is pretty wealthy by Brazilian standards.

Bolsonaro wouldn't appeal to upper classes in Portugal, not even the middle class. Bolsonaro would appeal to some people, from the lower classes to upper classes, who would be fed up with corruption and the status quo, but the vast majority would reject him as he is crazy and his agenda was inconsistent.

So it would be right-friendly (with a substantial left vote) due to class voting, but strongly anti-Bolsonaro to the point of preferring the PT to him.

Exactly.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

What do you see the 2018 runoff looking like?

Maybe a 80-20% win for Haddad, IMO. Although with a high abstention and maybe a lot of invalid votes.

I dunno if that's really believable, since 2018 saw a pretty sharp class divide, and most of Portugal is pretty wealthy by Brazilian standards.

Bolsonaro wouldn't appeal to upper classes in Portugal, not even the middle class. Bolsonaro would appeal to some people, from the lower classes to upper classes, who would be fed up with corruption and the status quo, but the vast majority would reject him as he is crazy and his agenda was inconsistent.

So it would be right-friendly (with a substantial left vote) due to class voting, but strongly anti-Bolsonaro to the point of preferring the PT to him.

Exactly.

Which real-life Brazilian state would you think is closest to this sort of politics? Relatively...

[Mike88]

What do you see the 2018 runoff looking like?

Maybe a 80-20% win for Haddad, IMO. Although with a high abstention and maybe a lot of invalid votes.

I dunno if that's really believable, since 2018 saw a pretty sharp class divide, and most of Portugal is pretty wealthy by Brazilian standards.

Bolsonaro wouldn't appeal to upper classes in Portugal, not even the middle class. Bolsonaro would appeal to some people, from the lower classes to upper classes, who would be fed up with corruption and the status quo, but the vast majority would reject him as he is crazy and his agenda was inconsistent.

So it would be right-friendly (with a substantial left vote) due to class voting, but strongly anti-Bolsonaro to the point of preferring the PT to him.

Exactly.

Which real-life Brazilian state would you think is closest to this sort of politics? Relatively...

I would say Pará, relatively because it's very complicated to find a match,. It voted massively for PSDB in 1994 and 1998, only just for PT in 2002, and in 2010 and 2014 was somewhat competitive. In 2018, it voted for Haddad although not by an overwhelming margin.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

What do you see the 2018 runoff looking like?

Maybe a 80-20% win for Haddad, IMO. Although with a high abstention and maybe a lot of invalid votes.

I dunno if that's really believable, since 2018 saw a pretty sharp class divide, and most of Portugal is pretty wealthy by Brazilian standards.

Bolsonaro wouldn't appeal to upper classes in Portugal, not even the middle class. Bolsonaro would appeal to some people, from the lower classes to upper classes, who would be fed up with corruption and the status quo, but the vast majority would reject him as he is crazy and his agenda was inconsistent.

So it would be right-friendly (with a substantial left vote) due to class voting, but strongly anti-Bolsonaro to the point of preferring the PT to him.

Exactly.

Which real-life Brazilian state would you think is closest to this sort of politics? Relatively...

I would say Pará, relatively because it's very complicated to find a match,. It voted massively for PSDB in 1994 and 1998, only just for PT in 2002, and in 2010 and 2014 was somewhat competitive. In 2018, it voted for Haddad although not by an overwhelming margin.

Ah, interesting.

[Red Velvet]

Portugal would definitely vote for Bolsonaro and with high margins, if they were inserted inside a Brazilian system and specific context/culture.

If you just let them vote from the outside, as distant observers like they are, they naturally would pick Haddad because of Bolsonaro international image. But if they were actually part of Brazil, PT would be extremely unpopular in Portugal (Southern Brazil in steroids)! And Bolsonaro main electoral draw was the anti-PT discourse. There’s also the Christianity speech. He would have them in the bag tbh.

Don’t forget that the expat vote is usually reflective of this kind of questions. And Portugal was one that went hardest for Bolsonaro in 2018.

Haddad/PT also was very weak internationally, finishing #3, behind Ciro Gomes! Overall international vote was:

Bolsonaro 58,68%
Ciro Gomes 14,55%
Haddad 10,14%

Bolsonaro won in 116 cities. Ciro won 12. Haddad only 6. A tie happened in 2.

- Accra (Ghana) and Moscow (Russia) - Tie between Ciro and Bolsonaro

- Dublin (Ireland), Paris (France), Berlin (Germany), Stockholm (Sweden), Copenhagen (Denmark), Warsaw (Poland) - Ciro Gomes win

- Hanoi (Vietnam) and Beijing (China) - Ciro Gomes win

- All USA cities + Israel + Japan + Iran + Venezuela - Strongest Bolsonaro victories

- Portugal and All Latin American cities as a whole - Hard Bolsonaro victory and lots of the vote come from Portugal.

- Netherlands, UK, Norway, Finland, Greece, Spain and Italy - Bolsonaro vote everywhere as well.

- Palestine + Jordan + Lagos and Nairobi (Nigeria) + Havana (Cuba) - Haddad wins

Basically Haddad did better in Arab and African places and also Cuba (not surprising). Bolsonaro and Ciro divided more the vote from western places, with Ciro winning in the capitals of the more culturally liberal countries + China capital and Bolsonaro winning in all the conservative ones and also the non-capitals.

[Red Velvet]

What do you see the 2018 runoff looking like?

Maybe a 80-20% win for Haddad, IMO. Although with a high abstention and maybe a lot of invalid votes.

I dunno if that's really believable, since 2018 saw a pretty sharp class divide, and most of Portugal is pretty wealthy by Brazilian standards.

Bolsonaro wouldn't appeal to upper classes in Portugal, not even the middle class. Bolsonaro would appeal to some people, from the lower classes to upper classes, who would be fed up with corruption and the status quo, but the vast majority would reject him as he is crazy and his agenda was inconsistent.

So it would be right-friendly (with a substantial left vote) due to class voting, but strongly anti-Bolsonaro to the point of preferring the PT to him.

Not in 2018, but likely in 2022.

Anti-PT vote would push Portugal to Bolsonaro in 2018. There was a strong media campaign against PT and social animosity against them was very high. But Bolsonaro terrible government would push them to vote for Lula in 2022.

That’s actually what is happening now with some of the higher education and income voters in Brazil, regretting their choice in 2018 thanks to the president failures.

[Mike88]

Portugal would definitely vote for Bolsonaro and with high margins, if they were inserted inside a Brazilian system and specific context/culture.

If you just let them vote from the outside, as distant observers like they are, they naturally would pick Haddad because of Bolsonaro international image. But if they were actually part of Brazil, PT would be extremely unpopular in Portugal (Southern Brazil in steroids)! And Bolsonaro main electoral draw was the anti-PT discourse. There’s also the Christianity speech. He would have them in the bag tbh.

I have my doubts, Bolsonaro's persona would have clashed with Portuguese voters. A "polished" Bolsonaro would pass, but the real Bolsonaro caracther would infuriate voters, even with a big anti-PT sentiment, which would be likely. The Christianity speech, on the other hand, would actually backfire here in Portugal, as voters don't like politicians who talk about God and that stuff. Voters would prefer the devil they know, rather than the devil they don't know and that seems a risk, IMO.

[LM Brazilian Citizen]

What do you see the 2018 runoff looking like?

Maybe a 80-20% win for Haddad, IMO. Although with a high abstention and maybe a lot of invalid votes.

I dunno if that's really believable, since 2018 saw a pretty sharp class divide, and most of Portugal is pretty wealthy by Brazilian standards.

Bolsonaro wouldn't appeal to upper classes in Portugal, not even the middle class. Bolsonaro would appeal to some people, from the lower classes to upper classes, who would be fed up with corruption and the status quo, but the vast majority would reject him as he is crazy and his agenda was inconsistent.

So it would be right-friendly (with a substantial left vote) due to class voting, but strongly anti-Bolsonaro to the point of preferring the PT to him.

Exactly.

Which real-life Brazilian state would you think is closest to this sort of politics? Relatively...

I would say Pará, relatively because it's very complicated to find a match,. It voted massively for PSDB in 1994 and 1998, only just for PT in 2002, and in 2010 and 2014 was somewhat competitive. In 2018, it voted for Haddad although not by an overwhelming margin.

Just to complement: In the state of Pará former President Fernando Henrique Cardoso (PSDB) won the state by 54,53% of the valid votes in 1994, in 1998 was re-elected with 56,81%, in 2002 Lula (PT) was elected with 52,65%, was re-elcted in 2006 with 60,12%, in 2010 his successor Dilma Rousseff (PT) was elected with 53,20%, in 2014 Dilma was re-elected with 57,41% of the votes, and 2018 Haddad won the state with 54,81% of the votes against Bolsonaro (PSL at that time)making the only time that the state didn't vote for the winner nationally.