This is the 2044 electoral map... what happened?

[Ferguson97]

[Pink Panther]

Apparently, the GOP became more environmentally-friendly and more tolerant of drugs. A lot of New Englanders move to Nashville, New Orleans, and Birmingham, as the rest of New Englanders rekindle their relationship with the GOP. The black population explodes in most of the South, and they continue their strength with Hispanics. Also, Bluaska is a reality.

[beesley]

The votes of many Christians change dramatically from current trends, or (highly unlikely in my view) there aren't enough of them to matter. Populism is less of a force than it was, but white voters still vote GOP and there is more racial polarisation in some areas.

[Alben Barkley]

Roe v. Wade was overturned or weakened so more Southern evangelical whites start voting Democratic with the abortion issue not as salient. At the same time, younger evangelical whites and college-educated whites in the South are trending Democratic anyway so the racial gap is not as extreme.

The black population also continues to grow in the South. The "sun belt" also attracts more college-educated whites from the North who are less religious than native Southerners, further weakening the old racial partisan gaps in the South.

The GOP in turn becomes a bit more socially liberal/moderate on issues like LGBT rights in the hopes of winning back whites in places like New England. They also temper their populism somewhat, but maintain support for protectionism (popular in the Northern rust belt states).

The Democrats successfully make an effort to retain the Hispanic vote.

The Democratic candidate is socially and economically moderate, while the Republican candidate is a Yankee Republican socially liberal/moderate and fiscally conservative type like Charlie Baker.

West Virginia, having not voted Democratic since 1996, is the closest state in the election and seems poised to flip in 2048. The whole upper South/Appalachian/Lower Midwest region is the primary battleground in elections now, in fact. Kentucky, Tennessee, Arkansas, Virginia, North Carolina, Indiana, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Missouri, etc. were also quite close.

[Skill and Chance]

I think this is a fairly plausible religious left vs. secular right post-Roe v. Wade, post climate change as a partisan issue scenario.

To quibble a little bit, Florida probably belongs in the GOP coalition here, and the Dems would win more of the Plains, at least Kansas and maybe Oklahoma.

I presume the Pacific NW is very close? 

[Roll Roons]

What were the closest states?

[支持核绿派 (Greens4Nuclear)]

I think this is a fairly plausible religious left vs. secular right post-Roe v. Wade, post climate change as a partisan issue scenario.

To quibble a little bit, Florida probably belongs in the GOP coalition here, and the Dems would win more of the Plains, at least Kansas and maybe Oklahoma.

I presume the Pacific NW is very close? 

Yeah there's no way WA and OR voted much more than 5% apart from each other.

[Roll Roons]

I think this is a fairly plausible religious left vs. secular right post-Roe v. Wade, post climate change as a partisan issue scenario.

To quibble a little bit, Florida probably belongs in the GOP coalition here, and the Dems would win more of the Plains, at least Kansas and maybe Oklahoma.

I presume the Pacific NW is very close? 

Yeah there's no way WA and OR voted much more than 5% apart from each other.

Even CO probably voted close to them.

[Agonized-Statism]

The Republicans emerged from a wilderness in the 2020s growing a neo-Eastern Establishment of ex-Democrats disaffected with their states' one-party machines, though it often clashes with the right-wing populist wing and they're still generally the losing party. The Sun Belt has become the Democrats' base. There's also a lot of polarization along racial lines.

[Skill and Chance]

The Republicans emerged from a wilderness in the 2020s growing a neo-Eastern Establishment of ex-Democrats disaffected with their states' one-party machines, though it often clashes with the right-wing populist wing and they're still generally the losing party. The Sun Belt has become the Democrats' base. There's also a lot of polarization along racial lines.

This I disagree with.  The way the South flips en masse is a decline in racial polarization.  If the Southern white vote comes into line with the nationwide white vote, the entire Deep South becomes Safe Dem.

[Ferguson97]

What were the closest states?

Massachusetts, Connecticut, Arkansas, Oklahoma, New Mexico, Tennessee, and Washington.

[Schiff for Senate]

This is what happened: You somehow accidentally made the Democrats blue and the GOP red. That's the only way in which this map makes some sense. I do think I see a possibility of MA and VT potentially going Republican - a ticket involving some combo of Governors Sununu, Baker and Scott? (Also, you need to update the electoral votes to reflect changes in the 2030 and 2040 censuses - I'm sure the Rust Belt will lose a few more districts and the Sun Belt gains a couple more.)

[Alben Barkley]

This is what happened: You somehow accidentally made the Democrats blue and the GOP red. That's the only way in which this map makes some sense. I do think I see a possibility of MA and VT potentially going Republican - a ticket involving some combo of Governors Sununu, Baker and Scott? (Also, you need to update the electoral votes to reflect changes in the 2030 and 2040 censuses - I'm sure the Rust Belt will lose a few more districts and the Sun Belt gains a couple more.)

Republican Washington, California, Hawaii, Illinois, Maryland, DC(!), New Jersey, or New York do not make any more sense right now than Democratic Alabama, Tennessee, etc. In fact I'd say they seem like way bigger stretches, especially if we're to believe that Oregon, Colorado, Minnesota, and New England are going Democratic at the same time as Utah, Wyoming, the Dakotas, Arkansas, etc. I gave some plausible ways that current trends and potential political realignments could make a map like this theoretically feasible by 2044, but I can't think of ANY plausible ways the reverse map could happen.

[Schiff for Senate]

This is what happened: You somehow accidentally made the Democrats blue and the GOP red. That's the only way in which this map makes some sense. I do think I see a possibility of MA and VT potentially going Republican - a ticket involving some combo of Governors Sununu, Baker and Scott? (Also, you need to update the electoral votes to reflect changes in the 2030 and 2040 censuses - I'm sure the Rust Belt will lose a few more districts and the Sun Belt gains a couple more.)

Republican Washington, California, Hawaii, Illinois, Maryland, DC(!), New Jersey, or New York do not make any more sense right now than Democratic Alabama, Tennessee, etc. In fact I'd say they seem like way bigger stretches, especially if we're to believe that Oregon, Colorado, Minnesota, and New England are going Democratic at the same time as Utah, Wyoming, the Dakotas, Arkansas, etc. I gave some plausible ways that current trends and potential political realignments could make a map like this theoretically feasible by 2044, but I can't think of ANY plausible ways the reverse map could happen.

Admittedly a Republican Washington, DC is impossible under just about any circumstances - but I don't think a Republican Washington, Illinois or New Jersey is as outrageous as a Republican Massachusetts and Vermont (both of which were the 2 strongest Biden states, with VT giving Biden nearly 2/3 of the vote, and Massachusetts over 65% - whereas NJ, WA and IL each gave Biden less than 60% of the vote each). Alabama or Tennessee going Democratic is also highly unlikely, even if the Democratic nominee is from one of those states - Al Gore lost TN in 2000, and politics in the south (and nationally) is significantly more polarized now.

 Overall, I do agree that this map (unlikely as it is) is somewhat more realistic than the converse - I wrote that as a way of conveying that this map itself is highly unlikely (though I do agree, the converse, in which Wyoming, NE-03 and Oklahoma would vote blue, is equally unlikely, if not more).

[Vice President Christian Man]

GOP became socially liberal and become slightly more libertarian, while remaining culturally conservative, while adopting a Clintonesque economic strategy, being similar to someone like Charlie Baker and Larry Hogan. Its immigration and trade policy helped it to maintain Appalachia/The Rust Belt, although it is not nearly as xenophobic as it was during the T years. At the same time its moderating on social issues helped it to carry Oregon and Colorado. New England flipped due to both moderating on social issues and economics, as many wealthy liberals found the Dems economics to be less favorable and the GOP to be a moderate alternative.

Dems moderated on social issues, while remaining culturally liberal, while the establishment wing became dominant on economics, and it became more hawkish on foreign policy. Increasing immigration and trade policy keeps The Sun Belt in check, while its more moderate social policies (likely deemphasized, rather than the Dems shoving their values down their throat like they currently do). has allowed it to carry states like Mississippi and Tennessee.