Bush vs. Gore 2004 without 9/11
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  Bush vs. Gore 2004 without 9/11
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Author Topic: Bush vs. Gore 2004 without 9/11  (Read 4304 times)
freivolk
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« on: September 15, 2006, 05:24:45 AM »

Bush 321 49,7%
Gore 217 44,3%
Nader 0     2,4%
Badnarik 0 1,3%

Voter turnout 45% or less
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kashifsakhan
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« Reply #1 on: October 15, 2006, 03:59:22 PM »

Its hard to predict what would happen in 2004 if 9/11 never happened. Bush's presidency would have been completely different, considering his presidency in OTL has been dominated by 9/11, War on Terror, Afghanistan, and Iraq. If 9/11 doesnt happen the other things dont happen either.

I'm gonna say Bush wins in 2004, but its another very close election with one of the lowest, if not THE lowest turnouts in the history of presidential elections.
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Michael Z
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« Reply #2 on: October 15, 2006, 06:39:36 PM »
« Edited: October 15, 2006, 06:42:13 PM by Michael Z »

Bush's Presidency was dominated by 9/11 and all its aftereffects. Without it he would have been a lame duck President, lost in 2004 (either in a rematch to Gore or against someone like Edwards) and gone down in history as the President who preferred bird hunting in Crawford to actually running the country.

Possibly.
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kashifsakhan
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« Reply #3 on: October 15, 2006, 07:54:46 PM »

Here's 2 possible results:

GORE WINS



305-233

BUSH WINS



291-247 in one of the lowest turnouts ever.
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Soaring Eagle
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« Reply #4 on: October 15, 2006, 09:22:54 PM »

Bush's Presidency was dominated by 9/11 and all its aftereffects. Without it he would have been a lame duck President, lost in 2004 (either in a rematch to Gore or against someone like Edwards) and gone down in history as the President who preferred bird hunting in Crawford to actually running the country.

Possibly.

I agree completely. 9-11 was both the best and worst thing to happen to the Bush Administration. It probably saved Dubya politically.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #5 on: October 15, 2006, 11:22:06 PM »

Bush was pretty much a lame duck by August 2001.
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© tweed
Miamiu1027
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« Reply #6 on: October 16, 2006, 02:21:11 PM »

Gore would have won relatively handily.
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snowguy716
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« Reply #7 on: October 19, 2006, 11:50:39 PM »

Gore would have won in a landslide... because..

We still would have invaded Iraq (don't fool yourselves into thinking they weren't planning on it before 9/11).. and with no "terrorism" backdrop to fall on, it would have been so unpopular that Gore would sweep the nation... except Texas, Utah, Idaho, and Florida (thanks Jeb)...


No, in all seriousness.. it would have been a boring election, but I think Gore's chances would be better simply because people would have been bored by the Bush presidency.
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George W. Hobbes
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« Reply #8 on: October 21, 2006, 09:06:21 PM »

Bush was pretty much a lame duck by August 2001.

Fahrenheit 9/11 notwithstanding, Bush's approval rating was 55% at that time.
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Reignman
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« Reply #9 on: November 29, 2006, 05:14:33 PM »

Gore would most certainly win. It would've been all about the economy and there would have been no 9/11 ad naseum from Dubya.

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Gore with 284 electoral votes. Missouri and Tennessee both extremely close. Wins pop. vote, but I think not by much (Nader probably would've been stronger in this scenario). Record low turnout for sure.
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12th Doctor
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« Reply #10 on: December 04, 2006, 03:32:33 PM »

Well, let's look at somethings that have been convieniently ignored  or manipulated by the hate-liberals who have posted so far:

1) As was mentioned, Bush's approval was 55%.

2) Something close to half of Bush's domestic agenda got put aside because of 9/11... including the conclusion to "No Child Left Behind" which woudl have funded the program... people tend to forget that Bush ran the first time on a very agressive domestic agenda, that was basically demolished by 9/11.

3) The economy started heading down in Dec of 2000 and was starting to recover by Sept. 2001.  The terrorist attacks sucked tens-of-billions of dollars out of the economy, which is the primary reason for the breif recession following the attacks... as a matter of fact, the recession lasted just long enough to be labeled a recession.  We wouldhave had slow economic growth for the last quarter of 2001 and most of 2002, but it would have picked up stedily by 2003 and 2004.

4) No War in Iraq (and don't kid yourselves, they weren't planning on one) means that a lot of the peaceniks who opposed Bush, and a number of people who didn't want our soldiers over-seas, but who aren't liberal would have supported Bush.

5) No war also means no spike in oil prices, which woudl have helped the economy along and meant fewer people "feeling the pinch".

6) 2002 mid-terms that woudl have likely ended up electing a decidedly Democrat Senate (3 seats or so) and a very close House wouldn't have mattered, because most of Bush's domestic adgenda was more palatable to Democrats and moderates than it was to Republicans.  In fact, I woudl argue Bush woudl have prefered a slightly Dem. congress.

7) No 9/11... no clean-up... no War on Terrorism... no economic troubles... no War in Iraq... no deficit... or at least, not a big one.  Fiscal conservatives would have no major reason to complain.

Cool Civil libertarians woudl have no major reasons to gripe.

9) The political atmosphere of the decade would have turned out very different.  There would be far less tension.  Things would be much less negatively charged.

10) No overhaul of FEMA means that the Katrina disaster would not have turned out quite as badly.

In short, this would have been a less exciting, but better time.  People are more than likely correct with their assesment that 2004 would have been another low turnout (about 48% again) lower interest election.  In the end, Bush woudl have won, though, and handily (about 53%), because people wouldn't have had much of a reason to hate him, and Gore would still be remembered as a sore loser.
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Boris
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« Reply #11 on: December 04, 2006, 04:10:11 PM »

If we go into Iraq: Gore wins.

If we don't go into Iraq: Repeat of 2000/tossup. Basically, the same people that voted for Gore in 2000 would vote Gore and the same people that voted for Bush in 2000 would have voted Bush. Slightly lower turnout, probably around 48%.
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Stranger in a strange land
strangeland
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« Reply #12 on: February 15, 2007, 12:22:10 AM »

Gore would have won. Without 9/11 Bush would have been that lazy president who spent most of his time in Crawford.
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #13 on: February 21, 2007, 09:43:14 AM »

Iraq War would have happened sooner, which means there's a distinct possibility (no certainty o/c) that Bush would been 2006-style terminally unpopular by 2004.
Now for a scenario where Al Gore runs again... given that the main reason why he's not running again in OTL seems to be that he doesn't want to, perhaps doesn't want the job, ... it's hard to think of one.

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Undisguised Sockpuppet
Straha
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« Reply #14 on: February 27, 2007, 03:01:05 AM »

Gore would win
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