US Birth Decline

[Annatar]

In Q1 of 2021, births were down to 842k from 890k, a 5.4% fall, this is the first quarter in which conceptions took place during a period where things had changed in society in response to COVID, deaths were up from 777k in Q1 2020 to 917k in Q1 2021, with natural increase going from 113k to -75k.

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/provisional-tables.htm


The US now for the first time in its history has recorded 2 consecutive quarters of natural population decline, Q4 2020 and Q1 2021, with COVID deaths going away the total number of deaths is likely to be much lower for the rest of 2021 vs 2020.

Nonetheless it is likely that US fertility will go below 1.6 this year for the first time ever, meaning the US will be lower than a lot of European nations, the American fertility advantage over much of Europe has almost completely disappeared, Germany could overtake America in fertility this year for the first time since before ww2 for example.

[Green Line]

Its not surprising.  We’ve created the most decadent, greedy, and selfish culture in the history of man.  It began here in the 2010s and will spread to Europe eventually, as all things do.  The birth rate is going to fall much, much farther in the next decade - and it will be a topic of popular discussion, and concern, by 2030.

[HillGoose]

i swear the pollution or something is making people infertile, idk how scientific that is but there is a big issue it seems like with young couples being unable to conceive these days.

[Green Line]

i swear the pollution or something is making people infertile, idk how scientific that is but there is a big issue it seems like with young couples being unable to conceive these days.

Nah we live in a less polluted country now than we ever have in the past.  Its the people, not the pollution.

[HillGoose]

i swear the pollution or something is making people infertile, idk how scientific that is but there is a big issue it seems like with young couples being unable to conceive these days.

Nah we live in a less polluted country now than we ever have in the past.  Its the people, not the pollution.

maybe it's just my group of friends, idk. a lot of mine and my wife's friends are also married couples in their early-mid 20s and all of us seem to be struggling to conceive. so at least some part of it might be unrelated to people choosing not to, but also that's a very small sample size so what i'm seeing might not be reflective of most couples in our age range nationally.

[H. Ross Peron]

In Q1 of 2021, births were down to 842k from 890k, a 5.4% fall, this is the first quarter in which conceptions took place during a period where things had changed in society in response to COVID, deaths were up from 777k in Q1 2020 to 917k in Q1 2021, with natural increase going from 113k to -75k.

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/provisional-tables.htm


The US now for the first time in its history has recorded 2 consecutive quarters of natural population decline, Q4 2020 and Q1 2021, with COVID deaths going away the total number of deaths is likely to be much lower for the rest of 2021 vs 2020.

Nonetheless it is likely that US fertility will go below 1.6 this year for the first time ever, meaning the US will be lower than a lot of European nations, the American fertility advantage over much of Europe has almost completely disappeared, Germany could overtake America in fertility this year for the first time since before ww2 for example.

Have European birth-rates been less impacted by Covid? I assume there's some differences between countries severely affected by Covid such as the UK or Italy vs. relatively less affected countries like Germany and Denmark. Still US has a fairly durable "floor" for birth rates given a high proportion of immigrants (even if immigrant fertility rates quickly converge) and especially conservative religious people.

[Annatar]

In Q1 of 2021, births were down to 842k from 890k, a 5.4% fall, this is the first quarter in which conceptions took place during a period where things had changed in society in response to COVID, deaths were up from 777k in Q1 2020 to 917k in Q1 2021, with natural increase going from 113k to -75k.

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/provisional-tables.htm


The US now for the first time in its history has recorded 2 consecutive quarters of natural population decline, Q4 2020 and Q1 2021, with COVID deaths going away the total number of deaths is likely to be much lower for the rest of 2021 vs 2020.

Nonetheless it is likely that US fertility will go below 1.6 this year for the first time ever, meaning the US will be lower than a lot of European nations, the American fertility advantage over much of Europe has almost completely disappeared, Germany could overtake America in fertility this year for the first time since before ww2 for example.

Have European birth-rates been less impacted by Covid? I assume there's some differences between countries severely affected by Covid such as the UK or Italy vs. relatively less affected countries like Germany and Denmark. Still US has a fairly durable "floor" for birth rates given a high proportion of immigrants (even if immigrant fertility rates quickly converge) and especially conservative religious people.

Big variance in Europe, births down in some countries like Spain, Italy and France, stable in Russia, up in Germany, Denmark and the Netherlands.

[_.]

It's interesting because according to Gallup, people still want children. In fact the "ideal family size" is rising in America, going from 2.5 in 2011 to 2.7 in 2018.

This suggests that unlike Europe, we might be able to increase fertility rate if we can improve economic prospects for younger people and if we have a more Natalist culture where people are comfortable having children. Right now the U.S. doesn't even have paid maternity leave, that's a good place to start.

[Agonized-Statism]

It'll be interesting to see the generational dynamics playing out between Gen Z and Gen Alpha down the road factoring in this current baby bust, if people still care about those arbitrary identities at that point. But the Class of 2038-2039 might be a quiet one.

[DrScholl]

There might be some scientific factors that are lowering fertility, but I think money is a larger issue. It's less affordable to have children than it used to be and with cost of living so high people can barely afford to look after themselves let alone children. Plus you have more people who do not want children at all. 

[courts]

i swear the pollution or something is making people infertile, idk how scientific that is but there is a big issue it seems like with young couples being unable to conceive these days.

Nah we live in a less polluted country now than we ever have in the past.  Its the people, not the pollution.

maybe it's just my group of friends, idk. a lot of mine and my wife's friends are also married couples in their early-mid 20s and all of us seem to be struggling to conceive. so at least some part of it might be unrelated to people choosing not to, but also that's a very small sample size so what i'm seeing might not be reflective of most couples in our age range nationally.

lot of evidence that you are right. pcbs and other pollutants driving down sperm count. plus people delay having kids more now which does not help

[H. Ross Peron]

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/06/16/us/declining-birthrate-motherhood.html

NY Times with some interesting data on how birth rates have declined in the US between 2007 to 2019. Interestingly the percentage of middle-aged women who have ever given birth has increased despite the decline in the birthrate overall thanks to women who simply did not have children at all previously being able to give birth much later than normal. This suggests that birth rates are both declining and being redistributed, with the most drastic declines coming in traditionally high fertility groups.

[Padfoot]

There might be some scientific factors that are lowering fertility, but I think money is a larger issue. It's less affordable to have children than it used to be and with cost of living so high people can barely afford to look after themselves let alone children.

This is the answer.  If you want to increase the fertility rate then you have to make having kids more affordable.  Back in the 50s & 60s a one income household was easily supporting dad, mom, and 2+ kids.  Now, to live that same lifestyle both parents need to work but two working parents means you need to pay for childcare which is a HUUUUUUUUUUUUGE expense.  Having one kid cuts down on that expense a lot.

Then you also have the career considerations of mom.  The "workplace ecosystem" has not adapted or adjusted nearly enough to actually accommodate women who want to have children.  Having a kid is a career killer for women in so many fields especially if you are still trying to establish a professional reputation.  That's why so many people delay having a family.  Women who have kids before they've securely established themselves professionally might as well give up on any sort of career advancement.

Bottom line, our economy is hostile towards families.  This is why we need universal Pre-K/childcare and universal paid parental leave of at least 6 months.  I guarantee you that once women know they don't need to commit career suicide to have a kid then the fertility rate will skyrocket.

[_.]

-SNIP-

I took a closer look at your data and I've found some interesting patterns which provide some rather intriguing pieces of data and also provide evidence to support the theory that Q1 2021 is going to be an outlier in terms of Births/Deaths.

So first up, something that putting this all into quarters leaves out is the month-by-month totals where we can see closer trends. Here is a graph I made showcasing the monthly natural population change for each month from January 2018 - March 2021 (provisional data):

As can plainly be seen, the United States dipped into negative natural population change territory for only four months:

April 2020 (the first surge of COVID deaths, approximately 60K excess deaths in concentrated in the Northeast)

November 2020 (the second surge of COVID deaths, approximately 30K excess deaths)

December 2020 (the second surge of COVID deaths intensifies, approximately 75K excess deaths)

January 2021 (the second surge of COVID deaths peaks, approximately 90K excess deaths, births plummet as the generation conceived in April 2021 is born and turns out to be much smaller than expected)

February 2021 (the second surge of COVID deaths slows down, 75K excess deaths, births rise modestly)

Something that does give a lot of hope though is that by March 2021, births and natural increase had reached the point they were at in March 2020 (which had very few COVID deaths compared to March 2021 and was when babies conceived during June 2019 were being born, and that was a good time economically), and this is already taking into account the 40K excess deaths in March 2021. It remains to be seen, though, whether births continue to rise. I think they will especially because by July 2020 (nine months before April 2021), the economy's recovery had already began and it was a nadir of COVID deaths) and also this fits in with historical trends that births typically rise between March and April.

You can take a better look at observed trends in the chart below:

Something else that also has a good chance of occurring is another birth plummet during July - September 2021, which is nine months after the second COVID surge. This is very possible due to November 2020 - February 2021 not being a very good time economically and even politically. It might not dip the country into negative growth rates because of the usually birth surge occurring that time of year, but it is likely to have an effect. We must be watchful of this.