How many seats do the GOP need to end up with to be sure they can elect a Speaker

[Schiff for Senate]

218.

If there's a comfortable margin then the crazies will vote how they want, but if they need every vote they'll get every vote.

Exactly. Although McCarthy should have around 220 to be on the safe side, if it gets serious, the rogue Republicans will eventually, if not on the first ballot, toe the line, because they know that sooner or later (and with or without their vote), McCarthy will be elected, and they won't be rewarded for acting out against them - they'll be removed from whatever their favourite committee is. So they'll probably back him up on Ballot #1 or Ballot #2. In the book American Carnage, Tim Alberta of Politico details how GOP House members including Tom Massie (R-KY); Marsha Blackburn (R-TN); Raul Labrador (R-ID); Jim Bridenstine (R-OK); Tim Huelskamp (R-KS); and some others convened secretly to deprive John Boehner of the speakership, but on the day of the vote, most of them voted for him on the first ballot anyway. They tried again later but again too many of them chickened out for the plan to succeed. McCarthy will probably be safe as Speaker as long as the GOP has at least 220-225 votes, but if he has less, he should watch out (although he'll probably win sooner or later as long as he has at least 218 GOP representatives).

 And on that note, my question is this - why would any House Republican vote against McCarthy for speaker if they have a large majority largely united around McCarthy? That's a recipe for them losing whatever committee assignment/chairmanship they treasure. Not that you're necessarily wrong - but strategically speaking, it makes more sense to jump ship and vote for someone else if your party has a narrow majority, because that's when your vote could actually succeed in toppling the would-be Speaker.

[Schiff for Senate]

218 will elect a Republican Speaker. 219 would be safer if Massie and Kinzinger are both there (far from certain in the latter's case).

I sincerely hope that Kinzinger remains in office to check the likes of Marjorie Taylor Greene and Donald Trump and keep at least one honourable Republican in the House. But it's highly likely, unfortunately, that Kinzinger loses in the primary, as you said, and I think that's true for all 10 of the GOP House members who were courageos, honourable and patriotic enough to defy their party in supporting a president who ordered an insurrection by his cult on his own capital.

[Schiff for Senate]

My gut says that McCarthy is fully in charge around 225 seats (a dozen seat pickup) but that he'd be in trouble with less than 225 and constantly at risk of getting ousted.

The book American Carnage, by Politico's political correspondent, Tim Alberta, is about Trump's takeover of the GOP and details every major event (and several minor events) in the Republican Party from Obama's inauguration to 2018-2019, when the book was published. They mention how several House Republicans (Jim Bridenstine of OK; Thomas Massie of KY; Raul Labrador of ID; Marsha Blackburn of TN; Tim Huelskamp of KS) conspired to oust Boehner from the Speakership for not being conservative enough. They tried multiple times and failed; too many of them chickened out and the GOP had too strong a hold on the House for a few rebels to topple Boehner's regime. Ultimately, though, one of them found a legislative tactic (I believe it was called a petition to discharge, but I'm not sure) and that somehow got Boehner to resign the Speakership and leave office (though he was planning on retiring anyway). The number of seats in this case didn't matter; the GOP can have 250 seats, but there may be some kind of legislative technique or rule that allows one or two of them to remove McCarthy from the speakership and possibly from office. (I don't know specifics but you get the idea; it's possible.)

[Schiff for Senate]

218 will elect a Republican Speaker. 219 would be safer if Massie and Kinzinger are both there (far from certain in the latter's case).

I sincerely hope that Kinzinger remains in office to check the likes of Marjorie Taylor Greene and Donald Trump and keep at least one honourable Republican in the House. But it's highly likely, unfortunately, that Kinzinger loses in the primary, as you said, and I think that's true for all 10 of the GOP House members who were courageos, honourable and patriotic enough to defy their party in supporting a president who ordered an insurrection by his cult on his own capital.

Herrera Beutler, Newhouse and Valadao are the most likely to survive the primary as Cali and Washington both have jungle primaries.

I think Meijer probably survives as well. That district seems to appreciate maverick Republicans. Also he just seems like a very cool and likable person.

True...MI03 elected two Republicans who voted to impeach Trump consecutively (Amash in the first impeachment, though he wasn't a Republican by that time, and Meijer in the second)!

(And speaking of Republican congressmen from MI and impeachment, Fred Upton of Southwest MI is the only member of Congress ever to vote to impeach two presidents - Clinton in the 1990s and Trump in 2021.)

[Schiff for Senate]

Clearly a lot more than 222, lmao.

My gut says that McCarthy is fully in charge around 225 seats (a dozen seat pickup) but that he'd be in trouble with less than 225 and constantly at risk of getting ousted.

Megabump. I got some of the details wrong, like thinking Katko would still be around or that MTG wouldn't be a McCarthy megaloyalist (LOL), but I was directionally right here. The GOP can't elect a speaker with a small majority.

Lots of people on here saying the GOP was a loyalty cult forgot that it's never been a loyalty cult to Kevin McCarthy.

You were wrong, however, in saying that he would be "fully in charge" with just 225 seats. He has 222 now, and he's still about 20 short. So no, even 225 wouldn't be nearly enough for Kevin to become Speaker.

Of course, it's still not impossible McCarthy does somehow become speaker, but it's quite unlikely.

[Schiff for Senate]

218.

If there's a comfortable margin then the crazies will vote how they want, but if they need every vote they'll get every vote.

218.

Aged like milk.

[Schiff for Senate]

218.

Aged like milk.

Lmao.  The odds a non-Republican ends up as Speaker is still near-zero. 

We'll see. I believe it's quite likely that the winner is ultimately a moderate compromise candidate (who may be a Republican like Fitzpatrick, or a Blue Dog type Democrat).

I actually think, given the 19 House GOPers who aren't budging from their anti-McCarthy stance, McCarthy's road to the speakership lies in somehow forging some kind of a compromise with the Democrats to win some of their votes. It's highly unlikely.

I mean, really. How do you see this playing out for a *conservative* Republican to win the speakership? Like, what likely scenario do you see wherein McCarthy or Jordan or somebody like them actually gets 218?

[Schiff for Senate]

218.

Aged like milk.

Lmao.  The odds a non-Republican ends up as Speaker is still near-zero. 

We'll see. I believe it's quite likely that the winner is ultimately a moderate compromise candidate (who may be a Republican like Fitzpatrick, or a Blue Dog type Democrat).

I actually think, given the 19 House GOPers who aren't budging from their anti-McCarthy stance, McCarthy's road to the speakership lies in somehow forging some kind of a compromise with the Democrats to win some of their votes. It's highly unlikely.

I mean, really. How do you see this playing out for a *conservative* Republican to win the speakership? Like, what likely scenario do you see wherein McCarthy or Jordan or somebody like them actually gets 218?

There is back room dealing to get enough HFC/Dems to abstain from voting, thus giving McCarthy the majority he needs. 

Actually, in considering a possible backroom deal between McCarthy and the Democrats (as I did in multiple posts in the main thread for the Speakership vote), this scenario, as much sense as it makes, is one I didn't think of. Instead of Democrats directly voting McCarthy for speaker, which would understandably greatly anger Democratic voters, they could just avoid voting to lower the denominator and get McCarthy over the finish line (after all, the magic number isn't necessarily 218; it's just 50%+1).

So yeah, I could see that happening for sure, and depending on what the Democrats would get in return, as well as how the likes of Bacon and Fitzpatrick actually feel about a coalition with the Democrats to elect a moderate to the Speakership, it could actually be a good idea for the Democrats to do this later on.