How many seats do the GOP need to end up with to be sure they can elect a Speaker
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  How many seats do the GOP need to end up with to be sure they can elect a Speaker
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Author Topic: How many seats do the GOP need to end up with to be sure they can elect a Speaker  (Read 1302 times)
The Mikado
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« on: June 17, 2021, 02:30:23 AM »

I could easily see a situation where if the House ended up, say, 218-217 McCarthy would never be elected Speaker because Marjorie Taylor Greene would refuse to vote for him for Speaker unless she got her Committee posts back and a handful of Katko types wouldn't vote for McCarthy if he did.

My gut says that McCarthy is fully in charge around 225 seats (a dozen seat pickup) but that he'd be in trouble with less than 225 and constantly at risk of getting ousted.
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Young Conservative
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« Reply #1 on: June 17, 2021, 09:21:57 AM »

Lol why wouldn't Katko vote for McCarthy for speaker after doing it multiple times before? MTG would also definitely voted for him because he has not cut her off, the Democrats did that.
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Ferguson97
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« Reply #2 on: June 17, 2021, 10:59:16 AM »

218.

If there's a comfortable margin then the crazies will vote how they want, but if they need every vote they'll get every vote.
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Del Tachi
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« Reply #3 on: June 17, 2021, 11:04:46 AM »

218.
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Meatball Ron
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« Reply #4 on: June 17, 2021, 11:10:59 AM »

I agree that 218 may not be enough for *McCarthy* specifically to become Speaker, but honestly, I don't think Kevin McCarthy will EVER be Speaker regardless of how many votes the GOP has in the next Congress. But to answer the question in the title of the post, I agree with the previous posters - 218 is enough votes for the GOP to elect a Speaker. I could see Scalise getting the nod.
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SnowLabrador
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« Reply #5 on: June 17, 2021, 11:46:44 AM »

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beesley
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« Reply #6 on: June 17, 2021, 01:17:35 PM »

218 will elect a Republican Speaker. 219 would be safer if Massie and Kinzinger are both there (far from certain in the latter's case).
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #7 on: June 19, 2021, 12:48:57 PM »

Hmm this is interesting.  I could imagine a scenario where the House deadlocks because of the Freedom Caucus and the Squad and it ultimately gets resolved with Cuellar as Speaker and 2 Republicans as Majority Leader and Whip.
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Schiff for Senate
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« Reply #8 on: June 19, 2021, 01:51:59 PM »

218.

If there's a comfortable margin then the crazies will vote how they want, but if they need every vote they'll get every vote.

Exactly. Although McCarthy should have around 220 to be on the safe side, if it gets serious, the rogue Republicans will eventually, if not on the first ballot, toe the line, because they know that sooner or later (and with or without their vote), McCarthy will be elected, and they won't be rewarded for acting out against them - they'll be removed from whatever their favourite committee is. So they'll probably back him up on Ballot #1 or Ballot #2. In the book American Carnage, Tim Alberta of Politico details how GOP House members including Tom Massie (R-KY); Marsha Blackburn (R-TN); Raul Labrador (R-ID); Jim Bridenstine (R-OK); Tim Huelskamp (R-KS); and some others convened secretly to deprive John Boehner of the speakership, but on the day of the vote, most of them voted for him on the first ballot anyway. They tried again later but again too many of them chickened out for the plan to succeed. McCarthy will probably be safe as Speaker as long as the GOP has at least 220-225 votes, but if he has less, he should watch out (although he'll probably win sooner or later as long as he has at least 218 GOP representatives).

 And on that note, my question is this - why would any House Republican vote against McCarthy for speaker if they have a large majority largely united around McCarthy? That's a recipe for them losing whatever committee assignment/chairmanship they treasure. Not that you're necessarily wrong - but strategically speaking, it makes more sense to jump ship and vote for someone else if your party has a narrow majority, because that's when your vote could actually succeed in toppling the would-be Speaker.
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Schiff for Senate
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« Reply #9 on: June 19, 2021, 01:54:29 PM »

218 will elect a Republican Speaker. 219 would be safer if Massie and Kinzinger are both there (far from certain in the latter's case).

I sincerely hope that Kinzinger remains in office to check the likes of Marjorie Taylor Greene and Donald Trump and keep at least one honourable Republican in the House. But it's highly likely, unfortunately, that Kinzinger loses in the primary, as you said, and I think that's true for all 10 of the GOP House members who were courageos, honourable and patriotic enough to defy their party in supporting a president who ordered an insurrection by his cult on his own capital.
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Astatine
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« Reply #10 on: June 19, 2021, 04:30:37 PM »

218 will elect a Republican Speaker. 219 would be safer if Massie and Kinzinger are both there (far from certain in the latter's case).

I sincerely hope that Kinzinger remains in office to check the likes of Marjorie Taylor Greene and Donald Trump and keep at least one honourable Republican in the House. But it's highly likely, unfortunately, that Kinzinger loses in the primary, as you said, and I think that's true for all 10 of the GOP House members who were courageos, honourable and patriotic enough to defy their party in supporting a president who ordered an insurrection by his cult on his own capital.
Herrera Beutler, Newhouse and Valadao are the most likely to survive the primary as Cali and Washington both have jungle primaries.
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Roll Roons
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« Reply #11 on: June 19, 2021, 04:35:11 PM »
« Edited: June 19, 2021, 04:55:00 PM by Roll Roons »

218 will elect a Republican Speaker. 219 would be safer if Massie and Kinzinger are both there (far from certain in the latter's case).

I sincerely hope that Kinzinger remains in office to check the likes of Marjorie Taylor Greene and Donald Trump and keep at least one honourable Republican in the House. But it's highly likely, unfortunately, that Kinzinger loses in the primary, as you said, and I think that's true for all 10 of the GOP House members who were courageos, honourable and patriotic enough to defy their party in supporting a president who ordered an insurrection by his cult on his own capital.
Herrera Beutler, Newhouse and Valadao are the most likely to survive the primary as Cali and Washington both have jungle primaries.

I think Meijer probably survives as well. That district seems to appreciate maverick Republicans. Also he just seems like a very cool and likable person.
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MATTROSE94
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« Reply #12 on: June 19, 2021, 05:07:25 PM »

Hmm this is interesting.  I could imagine a scenario where the House deadlocks because of the Freedom Caucus and the Squad and it ultimately gets resolved with Cuellar as Speaker and 2 Republicans as Majority Leader and Whip.
I agree. I am thinking that Henry Cuellar switches over to the Republican Party assuming he is re-elected, so maybe he would be a decent choice for House Speaker. At least he is pro-impeachment and possibly voted for Joe Biden for President in 2020.
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NYDem
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« Reply #13 on: June 21, 2021, 10:21:51 PM »

219.
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Vosem
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« Reply #14 on: June 22, 2021, 12:08:26 PM »

218 for 2022, given that no one especially hates McCarthy. The jury's out for later, though; it really was a higher number for the GOP in 2014 than in 2010.
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Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom
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« Reply #15 on: June 22, 2021, 05:58:44 PM »

218 will elect a Republican Speaker. 219 would be safer if Massie and Kinzinger are both there (far from certain in the latter's case).

I sincerely hope that Kinzinger remains in office to check the likes of Marjorie Taylor Greene and Donald Trump and keep at least one honourable Republican in the House. But it's highly likely, unfortunately, that Kinzinger loses in the primary, as you said, and I think that's true for all 10 of the GOP House members who were courageos, honourable and patriotic enough to defy their party in supporting a president who ordered an insurrection by his cult on his own capital.

Hmm. So my plan of moving to IL-16 for the purpose of voting for him in the primary might be a bad idea?
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Schiff for Senate
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« Reply #16 on: June 22, 2021, 06:31:12 PM »

My gut says that McCarthy is fully in charge around 225 seats (a dozen seat pickup) but that he'd be in trouble with less than 225 and constantly at risk of getting ousted.

The book American Carnage, by Politico's political correspondent, Tim Alberta, is about Trump's takeover of the GOP and details every major event (and several minor events) in the Republican Party from Obama's inauguration to 2018-2019, when the book was published. They mention how several House Republicans (Jim Bridenstine of OK; Thomas Massie of KY; Raul Labrador of ID; Marsha Blackburn of TN; Tim Huelskamp of KS) conspired to oust Boehner from the Speakership for not being conservative enough. They tried multiple times and failed; too many of them chickened out and the GOP had too strong a hold on the House for a few rebels to topple Boehner's regime. Ultimately, though, one of them found a legislative tactic (I believe it was called a petition to discharge, but I'm not sure) and that somehow got Boehner to resign the Speakership and leave office (though he was planning on retiring anyway). The number of seats in this case didn't matter; the GOP can have 250 seats, but there may be some kind of legislative technique or rule that allows one or two of them to remove McCarthy from the speakership and possibly from office. (I don't know specifics but you get the idea; it's possible.)
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DrScholl
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« Reply #17 on: June 22, 2021, 07:14:47 PM »

218 wouldn't cut it because there are too many potential wild cards and self-serving opportunists in the GOP caucus to pass up such an opportunity to make demands. In the event the House would probably be without a Speaker until McCarthy or someone else could negotiate for enough votes.
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Schiff for Senate
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« Reply #18 on: July 31, 2021, 12:32:36 AM »

218 will elect a Republican Speaker. 219 would be safer if Massie and Kinzinger are both there (far from certain in the latter's case).

I sincerely hope that Kinzinger remains in office to check the likes of Marjorie Taylor Greene and Donald Trump and keep at least one honourable Republican in the House. But it's highly likely, unfortunately, that Kinzinger loses in the primary, as you said, and I think that's true for all 10 of the GOP House members who were courageos, honourable and patriotic enough to defy their party in supporting a president who ordered an insurrection by his cult on his own capital.
Herrera Beutler, Newhouse and Valadao are the most likely to survive the primary as Cali and Washington both have jungle primaries.

I think Meijer probably survives as well. That district seems to appreciate maverick Republicans. Also he just seems like a very cool and likable person.


True...MI03 elected two Republicans who voted to impeach Trump consecutively (Amash in the first impeachment, though he wasn't a Republican by that time, and Meijer in the second)!

(And speaking of Republican congressmen from MI and impeachment, Fred Upton of Southwest MI is the only member of Congress ever to vote to impeach two presidents - Clinton in the 1990s and Trump in 2021.)
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Calthrina950
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« Reply #19 on: August 01, 2021, 06:10:44 PM »

218 will elect a Republican Speaker. 219 would be safer if Massie and Kinzinger are both there (far from certain in the latter's case).

I sincerely hope that Kinzinger remains in office to check the likes of Marjorie Taylor Greene and Donald Trump and keep at least one honourable Republican in the House. But it's highly likely, unfortunately, that Kinzinger loses in the primary, as you said, and I think that's true for all 10 of the GOP House members who were courageos, honourable and patriotic enough to defy their party in supporting a president who ordered an insurrection by his cult on his own capital.
Herrera Beutler, Newhouse and Valadao are the most likely to survive the primary as Cali and Washington both have jungle primaries.

I think Meijer probably survives as well. That district seems to appreciate maverick Republicans. Also he just seems like a very cool and likable person.

In addition to these four, I think Upton and Katko will also survive. But Cheney, Kinzinger, and Gonzalez are probably underdogs at this point.
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The Mikado
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« Reply #20 on: January 03, 2023, 06:11:53 PM »

My gut says that McCarthy is fully in charge around 225 seats (a dozen seat pickup) but that he'd be in trouble with less than 225 and constantly at risk of getting ousted.

Megabump. I got some of the details wrong, like thinking Katko would still be around or that MTG wouldn't be a McCarthy megaloyalist (LOL), but I was directionally right here. The GOP can't elect a speaker with a small majority.

Lots of people on here saying the GOP was a loyalty cult forgot that it's never been a loyalty cult to Kevin McCarthy.
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Spectator
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« Reply #21 on: January 03, 2023, 06:37:27 PM »

Boehner could barely do it with 247 members.
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Schiff for Senate
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« Reply #22 on: January 03, 2023, 06:50:49 PM »

Clearly a lot more than 222, lmao.

My gut says that McCarthy is fully in charge around 225 seats (a dozen seat pickup) but that he'd be in trouble with less than 225 and constantly at risk of getting ousted.

Megabump. I got some of the details wrong, like thinking Katko would still be around or that MTG wouldn't be a McCarthy megaloyalist (LOL), but I was directionally right here. The GOP can't elect a speaker with a small majority.

Lots of people on here saying the GOP was a loyalty cult forgot that it's never been a loyalty cult to Kevin McCarthy.


You were wrong, however, in saying that he would be "fully in charge" with just 225 seats. He has 222 now, and he's still about 20 short. So no, even 225 wouldn't be nearly enough for Kevin to become Speaker.

Of course, it's still not impossible McCarthy does somehow become speaker, but it's quite unlikely.
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Schiff for Senate
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« Reply #23 on: January 03, 2023, 06:51:45 PM »

218.

If there's a comfortable margin then the crazies will vote how they want, but if they need every vote they'll get every vote.


Aged like milk.
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Del Tachi
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« Reply #24 on: January 03, 2023, 07:19:11 PM »


Lmao.  The odds a non-Republican ends up as Speaker is still near-zero. 
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