How many seats do the GOP need to end up with to be sure they can elect a Speaker

[The Mikado]

I could easily see a situation where if the House ended up, say, 218-217 McCarthy would never be elected Speaker because Marjorie Taylor Greene would refuse to vote for him for Speaker unless she got her Committee posts back and a handful of Katko types wouldn't vote for McCarthy if he did.

My gut says that McCarthy is fully in charge around 225 seats (a dozen seat pickup) but that he'd be in trouble with less than 225 and constantly at risk of getting ousted.

[The Mikado]

My gut says that McCarthy is fully in charge around 225 seats (a dozen seat pickup) but that he'd be in trouble with less than 225 and constantly at risk of getting ousted.

Megabump. I got some of the details wrong, like thinking Katko would still be around or that MTG wouldn't be a McCarthy megaloyalist (LOL), but I was directionally right here. The GOP can't elect a speaker with a small majority.

Lots of people on here saying the GOP was a loyalty cult forgot that it's never been a loyalty cult to Kevin McCarthy.