218 will elect a Republican Speaker. 219 would be safer if Massie and Kinzinger are both there (far from certain in the latter's case).
I sincerely hope that Kinzinger remains in office to check the likes of Marjorie Taylor Greene and Donald Trump and keep at least one honourable Republican in the House. But it's highly likely, unfortunately, that Kinzinger loses in the primary, as you said, and I think that's true for all 10 of the GOP House members who were courageos, honourable and patriotic enough to defy their party in supporting a president who ordered an insurrection by his cult on his own capital.
I think Meijer probably survives as well. That district seems to appreciate maverick Republicans. Also he just seems like a very cool and likable person.
In addition to these four, I think Upton and Katko will also survive. But Cheney, Kinzinger, and Gonzalez are probably underdogs at this point.
