How many seats do the GOP need to end up with to be sure they can elect a Speaker

[Schiff for Senate]

218.

Aged like milk.

Lmao.  The odds a non-Republican ends up as Speaker is still near-zero. 

We'll see. I believe it's quite likely that the winner is ultimately a moderate compromise candidate (who may be a Republican like Fitzpatrick, or a Blue Dog type Democrat).

I actually think, given the 19 House GOPers who aren't budging from their anti-McCarthy stance, McCarthy's road to the speakership lies in somehow forging some kind of a compromise with the Democrats to win some of their votes. It's highly unlikely.

I mean, really. How do you see this playing out for a *conservative* Republican to win the speakership? Like, what likely scenario do you see wherein McCarthy or Jordan or somebody like them actually gets 218?

[Del Tachi]

218.

Aged like milk.

Lmao.  The odds a non-Republican ends up as Speaker is still near-zero. 

We'll see. I believe it's quite likely that the winner is ultimately a moderate compromise candidate (who may be a Republican like Fitzpatrick, or a Blue Dog type Democrat).

I actually think, given the 19 House GOPers who aren't budging from their anti-McCarthy stance, McCarthy's road to the speakership lies in somehow forging some kind of a compromise with the Democrats to win some of their votes. It's highly unlikely.

I mean, really. How do you see this playing out for a *conservative* Republican to win the speakership? Like, what likely scenario do you see wherein McCarthy or Jordan or somebody like them actually gets 218?

There is back room dealing to get enough HFC/Dems to abstain from voting, thus giving McCarthy the majority he needs. 

[S019]

218.

Aged like milk.

Lmao.  The odds a non-Republican ends up as Speaker is still near-zero.  

We'll see. I believe it's quite likely that the winner is ultimately a moderate compromise candidate (who may be a Republican like Fitzpatrick, or a Blue Dog type Democrat).

I actually think, given the 19 House GOPers who aren't budging from their anti-McCarthy stance, McCarthy's road to the speakership lies in somehow forging some kind of a compromise with the Democrats to win some of their votes. It's highly unlikely.

I mean, really. How do you see this playing out for a *conservative* Republican to win the speakership? Like, what likely scenario do you see wherein McCarthy or Jordan or somebody like them actually gets 218?

There is back room dealing to get enough HFC/Dems to abstain from voting, thus giving McCarthy the majority he needs.  

Why would Democrats abstain?

218.

Aged like milk.

Lmao.  The odds a non-Republican ends up as Speaker is still near-zero. 

We'll see. I believe it's quite likely that the winner is ultimately a moderate compromise candidate (who may be a Republican like Fitzpatrick, or a Blue Dog type Democrat).

I actually think, given the 19 House GOPers who aren't budging from their anti-McCarthy stance, McCarthy's road to the speakership lies in somehow forging some kind of a compromise with the Democrats to win some of their votes. It's highly unlikely.

I mean, really. How do you see this playing out for a *conservative* Republican to win the speakership? Like, what likely scenario do you see wherein McCarthy or Jordan or somebody like them actually gets 218?

I think Jordan might be able to do it, though he'd probably have trouble with the moderate wing. Scalise might also be able to get the votes, we don't know what the HFC thinks of him.

[Schiff for Senate]

218.

Aged like milk.

Lmao.  The odds a non-Republican ends up as Speaker is still near-zero. 

We'll see. I believe it's quite likely that the winner is ultimately a moderate compromise candidate (who may be a Republican like Fitzpatrick, or a Blue Dog type Democrat).

I actually think, given the 19 House GOPers who aren't budging from their anti-McCarthy stance, McCarthy's road to the speakership lies in somehow forging some kind of a compromise with the Democrats to win some of their votes. It's highly unlikely.

I mean, really. How do you see this playing out for a *conservative* Republican to win the speakership? Like, what likely scenario do you see wherein McCarthy or Jordan or somebody like them actually gets 218?

There is back room dealing to get enough HFC/Dems to abstain from voting, thus giving McCarthy the majority he needs. 

Actually, in considering a possible backroom deal between McCarthy and the Democrats (as I did in multiple posts in the main thread for the Speakership vote), this scenario, as much sense as it makes, is one I didn't think of. Instead of Democrats directly voting McCarthy for speaker, which would understandably greatly anger Democratic voters, they could just avoid voting to lower the denominator and get McCarthy over the finish line (after all, the magic number isn't necessarily 218; it's just 50%+1).

So yeah, I could see that happening for sure, and depending on what the Democrats would get in return, as well as how the likes of Bacon and Fitzpatrick actually feel about a coalition with the Democrats to elect a moderate to the Speakership, it could actually be a good idea for the Democrats to do this later on.