Birmingham, Ladywood by-election in the offing?

[Harry Hayfield]

Three very interesting statements today following the news of Clare Short's decision to stand down at the next election

1) She's going to campaign for a hung parliament
2) Sky News: "will remain an MP for now"
3) BBC News: Lab Chief Whip to investigate comments, possibilty of withdrawal of Lab whip

Wouldn't it be just like her to resign as MP after that investigation and call on all true Socialists to vote Liberal Democrat?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

She probably will have the whip withdrawn; and calling for the defeat of your "collegues" is something that certainly justifies that. Most backbenchers would likely be furious if she isn't punished actually. I don't think actual expulsion from the Party is at all likely, unless she goes even further at some point.

If she were to resign her seat in an ego-huff, Labour would almost certainly hold it and hold it easily (and quite possibly with a larger % majority than she got in 2005; by that point her credibility had gone and she had become an extremely unpopular M.P). All four wards in Ladywood voted Labour this May; Soho and Ladywood are Labour strongholds ('though there are some mild concerns about gentrification in the latter), while the LibDem threat in Nechells seems dead now (big swing to Labour there) and Labour regained Aston (and by fair means this time) by a larger than expected margin as well.

And o/c Short has absolutely no credibility left on the Left and would have even less if she advocated voting for a Birmingham LibDem...

[Ben.]

If she were to resign her seat in an ego-huff, Labour would almost certainly hold it and hold it easily (and quite possibly with a larger % majority than she got in 2005; by that point her credibility had gone and she had become an extremely unpopular M.P). All four wards in Ladywood voted Labour this May; Soho and Ladywood are Labour strongholds ('though there are some mild concerns about gentrification in the latter), while the LibDem threat in Nechells seems dead now (big swing to Labour there) and Labour regained Aston (and by fair means this time) by a larger than expected margin as well.

I'm not so sure... it's a by-election and the Labour Party is in a very weak position at the moment, I'd expect the LibDems to be able to take full advantage of that, remeber that in Bromley the local LibDems had just gotten hammered by the Tories in the local elections and yet they nearly won the seat and the Tories where in a much stronger national position than Labour our today... in the end, if there was a by-election (which i doubt) I'd be surprised if Labour held it. 

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Yes, a by-election does seem very (very) unlikely. She'd be more likely to just become an Indie (and actually hasn't ruled out running as an Indie in the next election).
But the Labour machine in Ladywood is very strong; stronger than in any seat that's seen a by-election since Ogmore (Blaenau Gwent doesn't count because the machine split in half) and to say that the shine has come off the local LibDems is quite an understatement.

And the only reason why Bromley was as close as it wasm (other than Farage o/c), was because it didn't dawn on the Tory campaign that they were in trouble until well into the count, let alone the campaign; in the weeks running up to the election there were predictions of a huge Tory win, speculation that they might hit 60%... the same sort of arrogance that cost them Romsey a few years ago (and Solihull in the General Election o/c). And even during the count there were claims that they were well ahead. I suspect that lessons have been learned now (by all parties).
Sure, the LibDem campaign in Bromley was just downright vile; but it was hardly the first time that that could be said of a Liberal by-election campaign (going right back to that nasty fascist Wallace Lawler in a previous version (I think it was basically the current Ladywood ward) of Birmingham Ladywood, here). I think that what by-elections have become says something about our political culture, and it's certainly not a nice thing either, but I guess that's by-the-by.

Regardless, Labour should hold Brum Ladywood no matter what happens over the next few years... should might well be the key word, but I obviously hope not.

O/c by-elections are not always easy to predict; especially now that parties can, and now do, spend fortunes on their candidates. But all things being equal...

[Silent Hunter]

I wouldn't rule out her defecting to the Lib Dems.