Can somebody explain what happened in Harris County, TX?

[Woody]

I'll admit, I was not expecting Trump to almost match his 16' performance. Beto O'Rourke won this county by almost 17 points in the senate race. However, in 20' this county swung by only 0.8 points towards dems compared to 16', and somehow actually trended R with turnout so high. So what happened here?

[Roll Roons]

Urban Hispanics swinging right, just like we saw in NYC, LA and Miami. Honestly, Houston is much more consequential than the RGV in determining how Texas will trend in the future.

[Storr]

I'm not sure how Democrats increasing their margin of victory from 2016 to 2020 by 0.92% (not 0.8, not sure where you found that) equals "somehow actually" trending R. Dem margin of victory was 12.34% in 2016, 13.26% in 2020.

[Jamison5]

I'm not sure how Democrats increasing their margin of victory from 2016 to 2020 by 0.92% (not 0.8, not sure where you found that) equals "somehow actually" trending R. Dem margin of victory was 12.34% in 2016, 13.26% in 2020.

"Trend" is measured relative to the national vote, so in this case it swung by less than the national vote did from 2016 to 2020.

[perpetual_cynic]

I'll admit, I was not expecting Trump to almost match his 16' performance. Beto O'Rourke won this county by almost 17 points in the senate race. However, in 20' this county swung by only 0.8 points towards dems compared to 16', and somehow actually trended R with turnout so high. So what happened here?

Because the city of Houston swung R, as well as Pasadena.

[perpetual_cynic]

Urban Hispanics swinging right, just like we saw in NYC, LA and Miami. Honestly, Houston is much more consequential than the RGV in determining how Texas will trend in the future.

I'm not sure about that. The suburbs of Texas are growing faster than the urban centers are. In addition, despite the R swing in Houston and the RGV, Texas swung leftward.

[perpetual_cynic]

I'm not sure how Democrats increasing their margin of victory from 2016 to 2020 by 0.92% (not 0.8, not sure where you found that) equals "somehow actually" trending R. Dem margin of victory was 12.34% in 2016, 13.26% in 2020.

Yes it swung to the left less than the country as a whole. However, look at the massive "trend" to the left from 2012 to 2016 in Harris County. Democrats are not losing ground in Harris County. It is similar to Orange County CA. It swung hard left in 2016 and barely moved in 2020.