2022 Districts by 2020 Pres. result

[Coastal Elitist]

Yeah no this is delusionally optimistic.

For starters how are you getting NY down to 3 Trump seats that's definitely a dummymander upstate. It's more likely to be 21-5
KS has already said they're going for 4-0 as well as Tennessee for splitting Nashville. Missouri is more up in the air but I highly doubt Wasserman has any actual inside knowledge. Texas is very easy to do 26-12, NC will likely by 11-3, GA will probably go for 10-4 which is also pretty easy. Ohio Republicans will probably go for 13-2 I doubt they draw out one of their incumbents and you can do that following all the redistricting rules. The Oregon legislature has agreed on 4-2 apparantely. While Michigan and Pennsylvania probably lose a Trump district it probably moves the other swing ones in his direction so I would flip those. I think NE said they would go for 3-0. With the commission, VA will probably wind up being 6D-5R and Arizona 5R-4D. If MD goes 8-0 and IL goes 14-3 I don't see Republicans holding back.

Also I doubt any VRA lawsuits will be decided before the midterms since it's going to take so long to draw these maps due to the slow census. I see it ending up Trump 230 Biden 205 after redistricting

[Coastal Elitist]

Yeah no this is delusionally optimistic.

For starters how are you getting NY down to 3 Trump seats that's definitely a dummymander upstate. It's more likely to be 21-5
KS has already said they're going for 4-0 as well as Tennessee for splitting Nashville. Missouri is more up in the air but I highly doubt Wasserman has any actual inside knowledge. Texas is very easy to do 26-12, NC will likely by 11-3, GA will probably go for 10-4 which is also pretty easy. Ohio Republicans will probably go for 13-2 I doubt they draw out one of their incumbents and you can do that following all the redistricting rules. The Oregon legislature has agreed on 4-2 apparantely. While Michigan and Pennsylvania probably lose a Trump district it probably moves the other swing ones in his direction so I would flip those. I think NE said they would go for 3-0. With the commission, VA will probably wind up being 6D-5R and Arizona 5R-4D. If MD goes 8-0 and IL goes 14-3 I don't see Republicans holding back.

Also I doubt any VRA lawsuits will be decided before the midterms since it's going to take so long to draw these maps due to the slow census. I see it ending up Trump 230 Biden 205 after redistricting

NC isn’t going 11-3…even Biden won 2 R districts  on their old 10-3 map. NC Supreme Court also is still 4-3 D.

GA won’t be more than 9-5, anything more would f**k the GOP in 4-6 years. Metro Atlanta isn’t getting better for them and I think Rs will be happy with giving McBath a safe seat.

Don’t discount how many TX Rs need to be shored up. 2, 3, 6, 10, 21, 22 were all Trump by 3 or less and 24 was Biden +5. Keeping these members is a priority for GOP, probably making 7,32 safe Dem.

Wasserman had an NY map with 23-3 Biden and 22 of them Biden +10 or higher and Katko’s seat winnable if he were to ever retire.

NH might draw a winnable R seat but it still might be like a 50-48 Biden one.

Ohio Supreme Court very likely won’t allow 13-2, packing Cincinnati makes more sense for Rs anyway.  

The Chief Justice of the NC Supreme Court (a Republican) will assign the initial three judge panel that hears redistricting claims. It is almost certain they will drag their feet long enough to kick the can past 2022, when the GOP will have the opportunity to flip 2 supreme court seats. I think it is up for debate if NC goes 11-3 or 10-4, but the NC GOP has been aggressive in the past, and I've drawn a 11-3 map where every NC seat was 56% Trump in 2020 (56% McCain was the target they used in 2010).

10-4 wouldn't be taking Atlanta down to 3 seats, it would be trying to cut Sanford Bishop (or making his seat a mostly a Metro Atlanta seat while including Columbus or Macon).

I drew a 27-12 map (back when we thought there'd be 39 seats) where every GOP seat was Trump +20 in 2020 numbers (except for a few of the fajitas which were somewhat lower, but still over Trump +10 and went Trump in 2016 as well). 32 will be needed to become a Dem sink, but the GOP can cut a Houston seat in all likelihood (Kevin Brady's seat can be divided up to help shore up a lot of Republicans now that he's retiring). I haven't bothered drawing a new 26-12 map, but I assume my task is easier because the Dem sinks can grow and the GOPs can take what would have been the 27th seat.

Don't have any particular thoughts on NH and NY (beyond that it is pretty illogical to presume NY would go 23-3, but TN GOP wouldn't cut the Nashville seat), but with Ohio, it absolutely makes sense for the GOP to go for the Cincinnati based seat. If you are smart with which suburbs you take, you can get that seat up to ~Trump +7 (and the other Cincy area seats can be Trump +19 so there's no dummymander risk). If the Ohio Democrats refuse to sign off on the map, it only lasts for four years anyways, then needs to get redrawn. The GOP can then re-evaluate the state of trends after 2024 and decide if a Cincinnati sink makes sense then. If Democrats decide to sign off on the map in hope #trends wins the seat eventually, that will probably quash any potential court challenge (not that I think a court challenge is likely to prevail anyways) and in the end, its better to have a seat that might fail at the end of the decade rather than automatically lose it for the entire decade.

A lot of incumbents don’t want to have a 75% new district bc they fear losing to a MAGA challenger. That’s probably the biggest factor. 11-3 in NC and 10-4 in GA will have major voting rights act issues. That’s why I expect Dems to keep GA-6 NC-2,6.

I’m not saying Rs won’t win the House, just saying the Dems can create more Biden won districts in NY and probably put the number around 221-226.

Ok yet Democrats will be willing to change their seats and risk primary challenges that doesn't make sense. Also I looked back at Wasserman's map and he didn't base it off 2020 numbers because DRA doesn't have those. He based it off 2012-2016 composite which is not reliable to make a current map. He also didn't provide a partisan breakdown and margins for the districts he drew but looking at the map it's obvious that the dem seats in upstate are weak. Also you really think the Republican courts will strike down Republican maps when courts like PA's willingly draw biased maps for Democrats come on. Also like I said before it's highly unlikely any court cases will be decided in time. It won't be anywhere close to 226 for Democrats after redistricting. If Democrats are willing to go all out in NY, IL and MD like you say then expect Republicans to go all out in states they control.

[Coastal Elitist]

Unless you think the court will egregiously split Pittsburgh you're going to end up with 9 Trump seats in PA based on a fair map. Also in MI a fair map has at least 7 Trump seats even if some are marginal. Minnesota is likely to be 4-4 to do 5-3 you'd have to gerrymander. With a fair commission, AZ should have 5 Trump seats as well since the abomination of AZ-1 likely gets changed.  Go and draw the maps that will be under a commission and you'll see what I mean.

I don't get the assumption that democratic courts will gerrymander for dems while Republican courts will strike down R maps.

Also it was already explained with NC that the chief justice who's a Republican can appoint a panel and drag the case along for a while.

[Coastal Elitist]

Unless you think the court will egregiously split Pittsburgh you're going to end up with 9 Trump seats in PA based on a fair map. Also in MI a fair map has at least 7 Trump seats even if some are marginal. Minnesota is likely to be 4-4 to do 5-3 you'd have to gerrymander. With a fair commission, AZ should have 5 Trump seats as well since the abomination of AZ-1 likely gets changed.  Go and draw the maps that will be under a commission and you'll see what I mean.

I don't get the assumption that democratic courts will gerrymander for dems while Republican courts will strike down R maps.

Also it was already explained with NC that the chief justice who's a Republican can appoint a panel and drag the case along for a while.

Pittsburgh was already split in the 2018 remap and PA-17 is a solid swing district that probably remains similar in 2022. No, 9 Trump districts is not a fair map in a state Biden won, 9-8 Biden is the fairest and I think it's reasonable to expect something like this. Yes, the 9th Biden district might be PA-1 which obviously won't flip unless Fitzpatrick retires. A Dem gerrymander would be 12-5, 11-6...9-8 Biden that was 9-8 Trump 2016 is a fair map.

No MI map "has to have at least 7 Trump seats." Biden won the state by around 3%, a fair map is probably something like 5-5-3 with 7-6 Biden. I wouldn't expect the MI commission or PA courts to help the GOP out.

AZ fair map would be 5-4 Biden (albeit with a very very marginal 5th seat) considering he won the state. The current map is actually pretty fair even if it was unfair in 2012 and helped Dems.

MN, WI are really wildcards, you just don't know what the courts do or if Evers makes a deal in WI with the legislature. MN gerrymander would be 6-2 not 5-3.

My problem with you is that you seem to think the GOP is just entitled to the majority of seats in MI, PA, AZ. I really would not be shocked if they end up pretty disappointed in the first two.

Also don't forget that a lot of the people involved in the commissions will not forget the post-election shenanigans Trump tried. If you think the audit in AZ is legit I would advise you to not bother responding.

I don't think they're entitled and I don't think you know what fair means. Fair has nothing to do with partisanship it's about keeping COIs together. Here's what I drew for each of these states and you can't really dispute that these are fair. PA-17 already voted for Trump and it's going to have add more Trumpy areas to it. By a Trump seat I'm counting anything that voted for Trump by 1 vote. The current map keeps Pittsburgh whole I don't know what you're talking about. I've drawn maps of every state based on who's in charge I know what they look like.

PA: https://davesredistricting.org/join/4420d891-e8b0-4f67-afa8-4fba2e3f4389
MI: https://davesredistricting.org/join/6224c684-9016-40c3-9b4d-17d661e30d6a

In my PA map 6 and 8 probably flipped to Biden but 7 stayed with Trump to be the 9th district. MI-6 on my map likely flipped to Biden making Michigan 7-6 for Trump.