2022 Districts by 2020 Pres. result

[The Undefeatable Debbie Stabenow]

Unless you think the court will egregiously split Pittsburgh you're going to end up with 9 Trump seats in PA based on a fair map. Also in MI a fair map has at least 7 Trump seats even if some are marginal. Minnesota is likely to be 4-4 to do 5-3 you'd have to gerrymander. With a fair commission, AZ should have 5 Trump seats as well since the abomination of AZ-1 likely gets changed.  Go and draw the maps that will be under a commission and you'll see what I mean.

I don't get the assumption that democratic courts will gerrymander for dems while Republican courts will strike down R maps.

Also it was already explained with NC that the chief justice who's a Republican can appoint a panel and drag the case along for a while.

Pittsburgh was already split in the 2018 remap and PA-17 is a solid swing district that probably remains similar in 2022. No, 9 Trump districts is not a fair map in a state Biden won, 9-8 Biden is the fairest and I think it's reasonable to expect something like this. Yes, the 9th Biden district might be PA-1 which obviously won't flip unless Fitzpatrick retires. A Dem gerrymander would be 12-5, 11-6...9-8 Biden that was 9-8 Trump 2016 is a fair map.

No MI map "has to have at least 7 Trump seats." Biden won the state by around 3%, a fair map is probably something like 5-5-3 with 7-6 Biden. I wouldn't expect the MI commission or PA courts to help the GOP out.

AZ fair map would be 5-4 Biden (albeit with a very very marginal 5th seat) considering he won the state. The current map is actually pretty fair even if it was unfair in 2012 and helped Dems.

MN, WI are really wildcards, you just don't know what the courts do or if Evers makes a deal in WI with the legislature. MN gerrymander would be 6-2 not 5-3.

My problem with you is that you seem to think the GOP is just entitled to the majority of seats in MI, PA, AZ. I really would not be shocked if they end up pretty disappointed in the first two.

Also don't forget that a lot of the people involved in the commissions will not forget the post-election shenanigans Trump tried. If you think the audit in AZ is legit I would advise you to not bother responding.

I don't think they're entitled and I don't think you know what fair means. Fair has nothing to do with partisanship it's about keeping COIs together. Here's what I drew for each of these states and you can't really dispute that these are fair. PA-17 already voted for Trump and it's going to have add more Trumpy areas to it. By a Trump seat I'm counting anything that voted for Trump by 1 vote. The current map keeps Pittsburgh whole I don't know what you're talking about. I've drawn maps of every state based on who's in charge I know what they look like.

PA: https://davesredistricting.org/join/4420d891-e8b0-4f67-afa8-4fba2e3f4389
MI: https://davesredistricting.org/join/6224c684-9016-40c3-9b4d-17d661e30d6a

In my PA map 6 and 8 probably flipped to Biden but 7 stayed with Trump to be the 9th district. MI-6 on my map likely flipped to Biden making Michigan 7-6 for Trump.

Just because you drew one remotely plausible 7-6 R-D map doesn’t mean that every fair map is bound to have at least 7 Trump seats; there are plenty of plausible 6-7 R-D options, including options that have a more compact southern Macomb/Oakland district than yours, keep the city of Detroit intact, and/or keep Kalamazoo and Battle Creek (a very frequently cited COI) together.