January 6th legal proceedings and investigations megathread

[Landslide Lyndon]

Watching Trump surrogates spinning this on CNN this morning is absolutely maddening. No wonder so many people are brainwashed. This FL dope right now is presenting this indictment as an attack on free speech and comparing Trump's actions to Hillary Clinton and John Kerry saying the election was rigged.

Like someone said, if Trump is vindicated then muggers will argue next that saying to their victims "stick em up and give me your money" is protected speech.

[Middle-aged Europe]

The Department of Justice has a 92% conviction rate. I'm sure Trump will definitely be in that outstanding 8% with his killer legal skills and command of persuasive evidence.

Donald J. Trump is not only the first ex-president in U.S. history who got indicted 78 times (or at all), he will also be the first ex-president in U.S. history to get acquitted on 78 counts!

[Torie]

Yes. Jack Smith would not bring any charges he couldn't prove, and the jury and judge will not be sympathetic to the defendant. He's screwed.

I did not know Jack Smith has never brought charges he couldn’t prove

https://thehill.com/opinion/white-house/3773758-trump-special-counsel-jack-smith-lost-the-john-edwards-case-what-might-that-mean/

I think it is reasonable to assume that the possibility was there that Edwards did not know that paying hush money was a campaign finance violation (e.g., it is not intuitively obvious to me that such a payment is a campaign finance violation). It is not reasonable to believe that Trump really believed he won the election because the vote count was inaccurate. Only an insane person would believe that, and while Trump has mental issues, he is not legally insane. So that line of defense is not going to fly with the jury or the higher courts on appeal. His lawyers are going to have to do better than that.

[Redban]

I think it is reasonable to assume that the possibility was there that Edwards did not know that paying hush money was a campaign finance violation (e.g., it is not intuitively obvious to me that such a payment is a campaign finance violation). It is not reasonable to believe that Trump really believed he won the election because the vote count was inaccurate. Only an insane person would believe that, and while Trump has mental issues, he is not legally insane. So that line of defense is not going to fly with the jury or the higher courts on appeal. His lawyers are going to have to do better than that.

Trump knew he lost. He just didn't think it was illegal to lie and say he won

[GeorgiaModerate]

I think it is reasonable to assume that the possibility was there that Edwards did not know that paying hush money was a campaign finance violation (e.g., it is not intuitively obvious to me that such a payment is a campaign finance violation). It is not reasonable to believe that Trump really believed he won the election because the vote count was inaccurate. Only an insane person would believe that, and while Trump has mental issues, he is not legally insane. So that line of defense is not going to fly with the jury or the higher courts on appeal. His lawyers are going to have to do better than that.

Trump knew he lost. He just didn't think it was illegal to lie and say he won

Simply lying and saying he won wasn't illegal.  But attempting to change the result outside of lawful avenues (election challenges, courts) was illegal.

[Torie]

I think it is reasonable to assume that the possibility was there that Edwards did not know that paying hush money was a campaign finance violation (e.g., it is not intuitively obvious to me that such a payment is a campaign finance violation). It is not reasonable to believe that Trump really believed he won the election because the vote count was inaccurate. Only an insane person would believe that, and while Trump has mental issues, he is not legally insane. So that line of defense is not going to fly with the jury or the higher courts on appeal. His lawyers are going to have to do better than that.

Trump knew he lost. He just didn't think it was illegal to lie and say he won

It isn't illegal to lie, except under oath*. It's Trump's inducement of others to do x and y that has him in legal hot water. I am not saying the case is slam dunk like the documents case. That depends on the presentation of the evidence, some or much of which we may not know at the momemt. But with a DC jury, if Trump skates it is going to be because the trial judge gives him a break (almost certainly not with this judge), or on appeal (leaving the guy potentially a convicted felon on election day, which may in the end bother some voters who in general enjoy his bad boy antics).

*or as part of a fraudulent scheme to steal something, e.g. an election.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

I think it is reasonable to assume that the possibility was there that Edwards did not know that paying hush money was a campaign finance violation (e.g., it is not intuitively obvious to me that such a payment is a campaign finance violation). It is not reasonable to believe that Trump really believed he won the election because the vote count was inaccurate. Only an insane person would believe that, and while Trump has mental issues, he is not legally insane. So that line of defense is not going to fly with the jury or the higher courts on appeal. His lawyers are going to have to do better than that.

Trump knew he lost. He just didn't think it was illegal to lie and say he won

Simply lying and saying he won wasn't illegal.  But attempting to change the result outside of lawful avenues (election challenges, courts) was illegal.

Right. But Trump allies are already on TV peddling this notion Trump is being charged over his speech. That will be their narrative even though that is misinformation. One ally even went so far to say that if Trump drops out of the race, all these charges would go away (they won't).

[Sir Mohamed]

Graham really is the most pathetic DC creature

https://twitter.com/RpsAgainstTrump/status/1686396448470970368

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

Graham really is the most pathetic DC creature

https://twitter.com/RpsAgainstTrump/status/1686396448470970368

Good thing Jack Smith did not indict Trump for his role in January 6th

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/PhillipsPOBrien/status/1686615327969325056?s=20

https://twitter.com/PhillipsPOBrien/status/1686617989506818048?s=20

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Oh it's get even better, many are reporting that one of the 6 indicted co-conspirators whose name is still under seal based on the description is most likely Rudy Giuliani!

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

Oh it's get even better, many are reporting that one of the 6 indicted co-conspirators whose name is still under seal based on the description is most likely Rudy Giuliani!

I think CNN has confirmed that Giuliani is one of the co-conspirators.

[Landslide Lyndon]

https://twitter.com/PhillipsPOBrien/status/1686615327969325056?s=20

https://twitter.com/PhillipsPOBrien/status/1686617989506818048?s=20

Milley would never go along with this plan. He said so to anyone who wanted to hear.

[Torie]

The above assumes that the Courts would not have stopped it, and they most certainly would have, so the above is hyperbolic and errant. If Trump then defied the Courts, yeah, maybe the secret service would have to drag Trump out of the White House. That is about it.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Really good thread here.  Read it to understand why the First Amendment defense won't fly.

https://twitter.com/emptywheel/status/1686784453580910592

[2016]

Let me warn all Republicans here:
Make no mistake if Trump gets convinted Swing States with Democratic Governors, Democratic Attorney Generals and Democratic Secretary of States will use the Convictions to find a loophole to boot Trump of the Ballot.

Why not nominate someone who will be on the Ballot in all 50 States.

[Landslide Lyndon]

BTW, a giant thank you to Kevin McCarthy. If he didn't withdrew the Republican members then the 1/6 committee wouldn't have discovered that treasure trove of evidence which made Smith's job so much easier.

[President Johnson]

https://twitter.com/PhillipsPOBrien/status/1686615327969325056?s=20

Even with the current ideological leaning, I seriously doubt the Supreme Court would have ruled that the vice president has the authority to overrule the outcome or throw out electors based on unproven accusations.

The real irony here is that the Electoral College was initially created to stop demagogues from entering the White House and it not just failed in 2016, it almost twice did so in 2020 (both the outcome and the congressional certifaction, which wouldn't have been necessary in a popular vote election).

The whole thing that upsets me - and certainly many others - is that one man is putting an entire country and frankly half the world through this drama just because his narcissistic personality disorder prevents him from admitting that he lost reelection. This is nothing more but his public theraphy over an event that traumatized him. The guy needs professional help behind locked doors and not distract the whole world with his BS. There are more important issues that deserve attention. If the Democrats are smart, they're exactly pushing this narrative and keep talking about economic issues, wages, climate change, abortion, infrastructure and alike.

[emailking]

Arraignment is tomorrow at 4 Eastern. Trump will be appearing in person in front of a magistrate judge.

[Redban]

https://nypost.com/2023/08/02/trump-could-have-mug-shot-taken-if-indicted-in-georgia-well-be-ready/

A sheriff in Georgia said former President Donald Trump will likely have his mug shot taken if he is hit with a fourth indictment in that state.

...

If the 77-year-old Trump does have his mug shot taken, that image will be subject to open records requests, Labat noted.

[TheTide]

There's no way Trump gets the death penalty.

This is a case where I think the death penalty should be on the table, at least to put some serious fear in him. His crimes are practically treason.

Social score -9.22

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/girlsreallyrule/status/1686794926875447296

Jack Smith is incredibly smart to pursue separate indictments and not have any co-defendants in Trump's indictment.  It will limit the amount of delaying maneuvers.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Emo/Trump crossover!

[ProudModerate2]

The above assumes that the Courts would not have stopped it, and they most certainly would have, so the above is hyperbolic and errant. If Trump then defied the Courts, yeah, maybe the secret service would have to drag Trump out of the White House. That is about it.

But what if Michael Flynn (psycho military advisor to trump) tried to use his influence with some in the military, and tried to get a certain regiment/division (a large-ish unit) to "force" trump into keeping office? (Not sure if Flynn could have pulled this off, but the man was crazy and I would not doubt if he would have tried.)

Milley may have had to use military force to allow the transfer-of-power between one administration to the next.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

There's no way Trump gets the death penalty.

This is a case where I think the death penalty should be on the table, at least to put some serious fear in him. His crimes are practically treason.

Social score -9.22

This is the .78.