January 6th legal proceedings and investigations megathread

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Any criminal charges beyond Trump? Eastman, Giuliani, Clark?

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

I wonder how much longer Trump's fans will fund his legal bills before they are tapped out? This has been ongoing now for 2 years.

[President Johnson]

Would they hold a bench trial for Trump given I have zero idea if you can find an impartial jury for him

Isn't that decision up to Trump and his defense team, as he's entitled to a jury trial if he wants? If I'm Trump, I'm taking my chances with the jury since like you said, you'll never find an impartial jury. With 12 people, there's a very good chance you'll find at least one supporter.

It also is DC though and Trump lost DC by an 18:1 margin so that might not be the case.

1/12 is 8%, so it's pretty close to what he won in 2020. And he only needs 1 person.

Btw if you take the Biden's number in DC I calculated there is about a 37.5% chance every member on the jury would be a Biden supporter , on the other hand if you take the not Trump number there is about a 51.37% chance every member on the jury did not support Trump.

If you're arguing just for public acceptance of a conviction, it's a fair point. However, I don't think a vast majority of jury members just vote based on political preferences these days. I'd assume the jury takes their jobs very serious. It's even the same with conservative judges that ruled against Trump in certain cases. The politicization of the judical system is dangerous.

[emailking]

2 Questions I wonder with this:

1. Would they hold a bench trial for Trump given I have zero idea if you can find an impartial jury for him

2. If convicted he probably would be placed on some abandoned military base given that Trump knows too much national security secrets to be placed in any civilian prison as even the guards there dont have the clearance to hear that info

It's Trump's decision whether he wants a bench trial or not. All you have to do is find 12 people who say they can set their preconceived notions aside and judge the case solely based on the evidence. They'll find that. They always do.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Would they hold a bench trial for Trump given I have zero idea if you can find an impartial jury for him

Isn't that decision up to Trump and his defense team, as he's entitled to a jury trial if he wants? If I'm Trump, I'm taking my chances with the jury since like you said, you'll never find an impartial jury. With 12 people, there's a very good chance you'll find at least one supporter.

It also is DC though and Trump lost DC by an 18:1 margin so that might not be the case.

1/12 is 8%, so it's pretty close to what he won in 2020. And he only needs 1 person.

Btw if you take the Biden's number in DC I calculated there is about a 37.5% chance every member on the jury would be a Biden supporter , on the other hand if you take the not Trump number there is about a 51.37% chance every member on the jury did not support Trump.

Trump has been impeached  stand FOREVER MORE and that is a blemish for 24 for him and DeSantis whom wants to Pardon Trump that's why DeSantis isn't gonna win VA the key state to win the Prez he is losing to Biden

Reagan should of been impeached for Iran Contra voters think he did nothing wrong, Bush H and Ollie North paid for their sins for Iran Contra they Lost

[OSR stands with Israel]

Would they hold a bench trial for Trump given I have zero idea if you can find an impartial jury for him

Isn't that decision up to Trump and his defense team, as he's entitled to a jury trial if he wants? If I'm Trump, I'm taking my chances with the jury since like you said, you'll never find an impartial jury. With 12 people, there's a very good chance you'll find at least one supporter.

It also is DC though and Trump lost DC by an 18:1 margin so that might not be the case.

1/12 is 8%, so it's pretty close to what he won in 2020. And he only needs 1 person.

Btw if you take the Biden's number in DC I calculated there is about a 37.5% chance every member on the jury would be a Biden supporter , on the other hand if you take the not Trump number there is about a 51.37% chance every member on the jury did not support Trump.

If you're arguing just for public acceptance of a conviction, it's a fair point. However, I don't think a vast majority of jury members just vote based on political preferences these days. I'd assume the jury takes their jobs very serious. It's even the same with conservative judges that ruled against Trump in certain cases. The politicization of the judical system is dangerous.

Btw I was just calculating whether or not Trump's team would prefer a bench trial here rather than a jury one and in legal docs about big cases, they talk about how one of the most critical thing is jury selection. They use all sorts of demographic data to try to predict which type of jury would be most favorable to the defense so with Trump, they probably would use political demographics here. For example with OJ the defense calculated the most favorable jury for him would be one comprised of African Americans and the prosecution calculated the least favorable jury for him would be one comprised of women and the jury ended up being mostly Black Women.

So btw the question for his defense team is what would they prefer , taking chances with jury given the probabilities I just calculated or a bench trial.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Would they hold a bench trial for Trump given I have zero idea if you can find an impartial jury for him

Isn't that decision up to Trump and his defense team, as he's entitled to a jury trial if he wants? If I'm Trump, I'm taking my chances with the jury since like you said, you'll never find an impartial jury. With 12 people, there's a very good chance you'll find at least one supporter.

It also is DC though and Trump lost DC by an 18:1 margin so that might not be the case.

1/12 is 8%, so it's pretty close to what he won in 2020. And he only needs 1 person.

Btw if you take the Biden's number in DC I calculated there is about a 37.5% chance every member on the jury would be a Biden supporter , on the other hand if you take the not Trump number there is about a 51.37% chance every member on the jury did not support Trump.

Trump has been impeached  stand FOREVER MORE and that is a blemish for 24 for him and DeSantis whom wants to Pardon Trump that's why DeSantis isn't gonna win VA the key state to win the Prez he is losing to Biden

Reagan should of been impeached for Iran Contra voters think he did nothing wrong, Bush H and Ollie North paid for their sins for Iran Contra they Lost

If Reagan should have been impeached for Iran Contra, so should have the vast majority of presidents since 1945 for their foreign policy actions. Iran Contra was bad but unlike Watergate and both of Trump's impeachments , Iran Contra was not done to advance Reagan's personal political interests and that is a huge difference

[Inmate Trump]

Wonder how long now until the hall starts moving with regard to convicting Trump (or not).

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

ECHELON just released a poll shows Biden plus 8 over DeSantis and DeSantis won by 20 if that happens it's a 2008 Nightmare scenario for Rs but that won't happen but a 52/48 Landslide can happen

These Insurrection hearings are damaging to Rs no matter if they are found guilty on a Crt of law

[emailking]

For a DC case he has like a 30% chance of getting Trumper on the jury so weigh that against your chances with the judge.

[Inmate Trump]

For a DC case he has like a 30% chance of getting Trumper on the jury so weigh that against your chances with the judge.

If he even has to make this decision at all.

I’m not a legal person but we aren’t there yet right?

[President Johnson]

Would they hold a bench trial for Trump given I have zero idea if you can find an impartial jury for him

Isn't that decision up to Trump and his defense team, as he's entitled to a jury trial if he wants? If I'm Trump, I'm taking my chances with the jury since like you said, you'll never find an impartial jury. With 12 people, there's a very good chance you'll find at least one supporter.

It also is DC though and Trump lost DC by an 18:1 margin so that might not be the case.

1/12 is 8%, so it's pretty close to what he won in 2020. And he only needs 1 person.

Btw if you take the Biden's number in DC I calculated there is about a 37.5% chance every member on the jury would be a Biden supporter , on the other hand if you take the not Trump number there is about a 51.37% chance every member on the jury did not support Trump.

Trump has been impeached  stand FOREVER MORE and that is a blemish for 24 for him and DeSantis whom wants to Pardon Trump that's why DeSantis isn't gonna win VA the key state to win the Prez he is losing to Biden

Reagan should of been impeached for Iran Contra voters think he did nothing wrong, Bush H and Ollie North paid for their sins for Iran Contra they Lost

If Reagan should have been impeached for Iran Contra, so should have the vast majority of presidents since 1945 for their foreign policy actions. Iran Contra was bad but unlike Watergate and both of Trump's impeachments , Iran Contra was not done to advance Reagan's personal political interests and that is a huge difference

A difference? Yes, it wasn't done to enrich Reagan himself personally. However, it was clearly against the law. A main difficulty was far as I am concerned was to prove beyond a reasonable doubt how much Reagan was involved personally. He might not even have remembered due to early stages of Alzheimers. Watergate by contrast was a pretty clear case, though Nixon's sabotage of the Paris talks in 1968 was actually way worse than Watergate.

What's an impeachable offense is rather vague in the constitution. Pretty much what Gerald Ford once said: It's whatever the majority of the House decides.

[OSR stands with Israel]

For a DC case he has like a 30% chance of getting Trumper on the jury so weigh that against your chances with the judge.

Way more than that, he has a 48.63% chance to get it. 0.946^12=0.5137

[Benjamin Frank]

For a DC case he has like a 30% chance of getting Trumper on the jury so weigh that against your chances with the judge.

Way more than that, he has a 48.63% chance to get it. 0.946^12=0.5137

Technically this isn't correct because Washington D.C uses voir dire. In this case, unlike in most states in D.C, the judge asks questions to potential jurors based on a list submitted by both the prosecutor and the defense. Based on the answers, the judge can refuse to accept a juror.

So, you can go on from there in terms of the importance of any potential judge if this case goes ahead.

The significant thing from a mathematical perspective though, is that this means the jurors aren't entirely random, so probability formulas don't apply.

[OSR stands with Israel]

For a DC case he has like a 30% chance of getting Trumper on the jury so weigh that against your chances with the judge.

Way more than that, he has a 48.63% chance to get it. 0.946^12=0.5137

Technically this isn't correct because Washington D.C uses voir dire. In this case, unlike in most states in D.C, the judge asks questions to potential jurors based on a list submitted by both the prosecutor and the defense. Based on the answers, the judge can refuse to accept a juror.

So, you can go on from there in terms of the importance of any potential judge if this case goes ahead.

The significant thing from a mathematical perspective though, is that this means the jurors aren't entirely random, so probability formulas don't apply.

So this would increase the chance the defense asks for a bench trial right. Also btw a jury almost certainly would be sequestered here so one juror holding out would also have to be willing to spend weeks more in sequestration to force a hung jury.

[Benjamin Frank]

For a DC case he has like a 30% chance of getting Trumper on the jury so weigh that against your chances with the judge.

Way more than that, he has a 48.63% chance to get it. 0.946^12=0.5137

Technically this isn't correct because Washington D.C uses voir dire. In this case, unlike in most states in D.C, the judge asks questions to potential jurors based on a list submitted by both the prosecutor and the defense. Based on the answers, the judge can refuse to accept a juror.

So, you can go on from there in terms of the importance of any potential judge if this case goes ahead.

The significant thing from a mathematical perspective though, is that this means the jurors aren't entirely random, so probability formulas don't apply.

So this would increase the chance the defense asks for a bench trial right. Also btw a jury almost certainly would be sequestered here so one juror holding out would also have to be willing to spend weeks more in sequestration to force a hung jury.

I think the defense would determine based on the judge appointed to the case.  While obviously a judge sympathetic to the prosecution wouldn't allow the question 'did you vote for Donald Trump?' there certainly are ways a smart prosecutor could ask an acceptable question that would more or less determine that.

On the mathematical point, there are people who know this much better than me here, but this is the basic concept:

Fom wiki:
Independence is a fundamental notion in probability theory, as in statistics and the theory of stochastic processes. Two events are independent, statistically independent, or stochastically independent[1] if, informally speaking, the occurrence of one does not affect the probability of occurrence of the other or, equivalently, does not affect the odds.

So, since the jurors aren't strictly randomly chosen, there is no independence.

There are probably people here who could roughly calculate the odds given a judge who favors the prosecution versus a judge who favors the defense.

[emailking]

For a DC case he has like a 30% chance of getting Trumper on the jury so weigh that against your chances with the judge.

Way more than that, he has a 48.63% chance to get it. 0.946^12=0.5137

Not everyone who votes Rep is a Trumper.

[emailking]

For a DC case he has like a 30% chance of getting Trumper on the jury so weigh that against your chances with the judge.

If he even has to make this decision at all.

I’m not a legal person but we aren’t there yet right?

He doesn't have to make a decision until well after he's charged. There would be hearings about this.

[Crumpets]

Re: the DC jury question, you also need to factor in non-voters. Turnout was only 67% in 2020.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Re: the DC jury question, you also need to factor in non-voters. Turnout was only 67% in 2020.

I’d say for a trial like this, all 12 jurors should be chosen from that 33%

[Inmate Trump]

For a DC case he has like a 30% chance of getting Trumper on the jury so weigh that against your chances with the judge.

If he even has to make this decision at all.

I’m not a legal person but we aren’t there yet right?

He doesn't have to make a decision until well after he's charged. There would be hearings about this.

And probably enough time for him to continue his campaign, possibly even become president again, in which case it’ll all be moot.

[emailking]

The executive summary today is 100 pages and the full report on Wednesday will be 2000 pages.

[Ferguson97]

Re: the DC jury question, you also need to factor in non-voters. Turnout was only 67% in 2020.

I’d say for a trial like this, all 12 jurors should be chosen from that 33%

It would be unfair to Trump to put his freedom in the hands of the stupidest 1/3 of the country.

[Benjamin Frank]

Re: the DC jury question, you also need to factor in non-voters. Turnout was only 67% in 2020.

I’d say for a trial like this, all 12 jurors should be chosen from that 33%

It would be unfair to Trump to put his freedom in the hands of the stupidest 1/3 of the country.

Since I believe that's all eligible voters and not just registered voters, the 1/3 includes a lot of people who aren't registered to vote, so they aren't eligible for jury duty either.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Re: the DC jury question, you also need to factor in non-voters. Turnout was only 67% in 2020.

I’d say for a trial like this, all 12 jurors should be chosen from that 33%

It would be unfair to Trump to put his freedom in the hands of the stupidest 1/3 of the country.

Since I believe that's all eligible voters and not just registered voters, the 1/3 includes a lot of people who aren't registered to vote, so they aren't eligible for jury duty either.

In Georgia, you don't have to be a registered voter to be summoned for jury duty.  The jury pool is taken from both registered voters and those who have Georgia driver's licenses (or equivalent state ID's).  I have no idea if DC does the same.