Crist certainly has the advantage here, but a lot can happen in between and he can't take the nomination for granted as it was the case in 2014. He definitely has a lot more to lose with the gubernatorial run and if he loses, he's done politically. Fried is still pretty young and could go for congress in 2024 and try to become governor again later on.
We can fully win this race should there be a blue wave
States don't always vote the way they should even on waves Baker and Hogan and Sununu won and VlBrown and Sinema won in 2018