Who would benefit from a SCOTUS vacancy in 2022?

[SenatorCouzens]

Assuming it's Jackson or Kruger seated by September 2022 after replacing Breyer, and that the Republicans don't go off the rails as the Democrats did with Kavanaugh (whether you think it right or wrong, Democrats overplayed their hand and blew up any chance of retaining certain red state Senate seats) and there's nothing ideologically explosive in the nominee's background (some old memo or op-ed somewhere)...

I have a hard time seeing this impact the election in a meaningful way. I predict a 51-49 confirmation vote, with Collins and all Democrats supporting the nominee.

No effect is at odds with recent history, because I think Scalia in 2016 led to Trump's victory, Kennedy in 2018 guaranteed Republicans retain the Senate, and Ginsburg in 2020 prevented whatever chance there was from the bottom falling out for the GOP.