Who would benefit from a SCOTUS vacancy in 2022?
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  Who would benefit from a SCOTUS vacancy in 2022?
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Author Topic: Who would benefit from a SCOTUS vacancy in 2022?  (Read 448 times)
SnowLabrador
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« on: June 14, 2021, 10:56:39 AM »

I believe the GOP would benefit, just like they did when Ginsburg died.
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President Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #1 on: June 14, 2021, 10:57:48 AM »

I believe the GOP would benefit, just like they did when Ginsburg died.
Why?
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Tartarus Sauce
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« Reply #2 on: June 14, 2021, 11:00:16 AM »


Because he always thinks everything helps Republicans.
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SnowLabrador
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« Reply #3 on: June 14, 2021, 11:09:00 AM »


Because GOP voters care far more about the courts than Democratic voters.
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President Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #4 on: June 14, 2021, 11:13:21 AM »


Because GOP voters care far more about the courts than Democratic voters.
I see.
Anyway, my take is that it mostly depends on the party of the president who last filled the seat. Dems will care more about a "liberal"-held seat than GOPers, and vice versa.
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Ferguson97
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« Reply #5 on: June 14, 2021, 11:20:54 AM »

I'll say it benefits Democrats. If we assume that Republicans are on track to win seats in the midterms already, because of low Democratic turnout due to complacency - then Democrats would suddenly have a motivation to go to the polls that they didn't before. A conservative who cares strongly about getting a conservative on the Supreme Court is probably already voting in the midterms regardless.
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beesley
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« Reply #6 on: June 14, 2021, 11:23:51 AM »

It's fair that Republicans care about the Supreme Court for issues like abortion, but I feel that one of the biggest drivers of this issue in 2018 was the idea that Democrats were trying to unfairly derail a rightful nominee. Understandably the fact that there's a 50-50 Senate may put this in the public conscience, but most people who care about that are quite partisan anyway, so any benefit may be quite limited.
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UWS
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« Reply #7 on: June 14, 2021, 11:24:38 AM »


Because GOP voters care far more about the courts than Democratic voters.
I see.
Anyway, my take is that it mostly depends on the party of the president who last filled the seat. Dems will care more about a "liberal"-held seat than GOPers, and vice versa.

That's why the vacancy of Antonin Scalia's seat didn't help the Dems in 2016.
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President Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #8 on: June 14, 2021, 11:31:36 AM »


Because GOP voters care far more about the courts than Democratic voters.
I see.
Anyway, my take is that it mostly depends on the party of the president who last filled the seat. Dems will care more about a "liberal"-held seat than GOPers, and vice versa.

That's why the vacancy of Antonin Scalia's seat didn't help the Dems in 2016.
Exactly.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #9 on: June 14, 2021, 01:03:47 PM »

Souter isn't a swing seat anyways, it won't matter that much, it's still 6/3 Conservative

D's act like the Souter Judge will make or break the Liberal v Conservative Crt, he has not been hospital as far as we know and he isn't sick
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SenatorCouzens
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« Reply #10 on: June 14, 2021, 01:36:37 PM »

Assuming it's Jackson or Kruger seated by September 2022 after replacing Breyer, and that the Republicans don't go off the rails as the Democrats did with Kavanaugh (whether you think it right or wrong, Democrats overplayed their hand and blew up any chance of retaining certain red state Senate seats) and there's nothing ideologically explosive in the nominee's background (some old memo or op-ed somewhere)...

I have a hard time seeing this impact the election in a meaningful way. I predict a 51-49 confirmation vote, with Collins and all Democrats supporting the nominee.

No effect is at odds with recent history, because I think Scalia in 2016 led to Trump's victory, Kennedy in 2018 guaranteed Republicans retain the Senate, and Ginsburg in 2020 prevented whatever chance there was from the bottom falling out for the GOP.
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If my soul was made of stone
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« Reply #11 on: June 14, 2021, 01:53:20 PM »

and that the Republicans don't go off the rails as the Democrats did with Kavanaugh (whether you think it right or wrong, Democrats overplayed their hand and blew up any chance of retaining certain red state Senate seats)

Exit polling from the 2018 races indicates that plenty of people had made their minds up before Kavanaugh's nomination became controversial, those who were seriously invested in the vote generally were already leaning strongly towards the candidate that they ended up supporting, and in some races (such as Florida, the closest by far) the Republican actually did better among those who cared less about that vote. At any rate, it's absurd to argue that the partisanship could've been there for Donnelly or Heitkamp to survive minus one controversy.
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Buffalo Mayor Young Kim
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« Reply #12 on: June 14, 2021, 02:49:00 PM »

People are idiots who think the Supreme Court is the official Circuit of Abortions and Gay Stuff.
Which things Republicans care more about.

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Buffalo Mayor Young Kim
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« Reply #13 on: June 14, 2021, 03:06:04 PM »

Assuming it's Jackson or Kruger seated by September 2022 after replacing Breyer, and that the Republicans don't go off the rails as the Democrats did with Kavanaugh (whether you think it right or wrong, Democrats overplayed their hand and blew up any chance of retaining certain red state Senate seats) and there's nothing ideologically explosive in the nominee's background (some old memo or op-ed somewhere)...
Something is seriously wrong with the process when an old memo or op-Ed is explosive, but bringing up credible rape allegations is overplaying your hand
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MargieCat
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« Reply #14 on: June 14, 2021, 04:44:10 PM »

The democrats.

The republicans already have 6 conservative justices. Roberts is no longer the swing vote.
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Pericles
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« Reply #15 on: June 14, 2021, 07:27:26 PM »

No benefit for either side. The Scalia vacancy did help rally the Republican base behind Trump in 2016, but Kavanaugh didn't have a noticeable effect in 2018 and the RBG vacancy didn't change people's minds at all in 2020.
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