Why do people think Bernie would have done worse than Biden?
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  Why do people think Bernie would have done worse than Biden?
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Author Topic: Why do people think Bernie would have done worse than Biden?  (Read 2005 times)
SnowLabrador
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« on: June 13, 2021, 08:11:36 PM »

I believe Bernie Sanders would have done better in the general election than Joe Biden, for two main reasons:

- He was winning Latinos in the primary easily, and Biden absolutely collapsed with them in the general election.

- He would not have stopped in-person canvassing, which as it turns out isn't THAT dangerous COVID-wise. That was the Democratic Party's unilateral surrender, and it nearly cost them the 2020 election, and several winnable House races no doubt.

I just wonder where this conventional wisdom comes from.
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perpetual_cynic
erwint.2021
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« Reply #1 on: June 13, 2021, 08:24:35 PM »

I believe Bernie Sanders would have done better in the general election than Joe Biden, for two main reasons:

- He was winning Latinos in the primary easily, and Biden absolutely collapsed with them in the general election.

- He would not have stopped in-person canvassing, which as it turns out isn't THAT dangerous COVID-wise. That was the Democratic Party's unilateral surrender, and it nearly cost them the 2020 election, and several winnable House races no doubt.

I just wonder where this conventional wisdom comes from.

That's what I find so ironic is that Bernie did so well with Latinos and then look what happened in the general. It would have been a coin toss I think between Bernie and Trump because Bernie wouldn't have been able to claw back at the moderate suburban voters that Biden gained to win key states like Wisconsin, Michigan and Minnesota.
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« Reply #2 on: June 13, 2021, 08:41:33 PM »

I believe Bernie Sanders would have done better in the general election than Joe Biden, for two main reasons:

- He was winning Latinos in the primary easily, and Biden absolutely collapsed with them in the general election.

- He would not have stopped in-person canvassing, which as it turns out isn't THAT dangerous COVID-wise. That was the Democratic Party's unilateral surrender, and it nearly cost them the 2020 election, and several winnable House races no doubt.

I just wonder where this conventional wisdom comes from.

That's what I find so ironic is that Bernie did so well with Latinos and then look what happened in the general. It would have been a coin toss I think between Bernie and Trump because Bernie wouldn't have been able to claw back at the moderate suburban voters that Biden gained to win key states like Wisconsin, Michigan and Minnesota.

Bernie losing Minnesota is...a take. He could've done a hair worse in affluent Twin Cities suburbs, but he probably makes up for that by patching up some of the bleeding in the Iron Range, the Red River valley, and along the Iowa border.
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« Reply #3 on: June 13, 2021, 08:51:40 PM »

I believe Bernie Sanders would have done better in the general election than Joe Biden, for two main reasons:

- He was winning Latinos in the primary easily, and Biden absolutely collapsed with them in the general election.

- He would not have stopped in-person canvassing, which as it turns out isn't THAT dangerous COVID-wise. That was the Democratic Party's unilateral surrender, and it nearly cost them the 2020 election, and several winnable House races no doubt.

I just wonder where this conventional wisdom comes from.

That's what I find so ironic is that Bernie did so well with Latinos and then look what happened in the general. It would have been a coin toss I think between Bernie and Trump because Bernie wouldn't have been able to claw back at the moderate suburban voters that Biden gained to win key states like Wisconsin, Michigan and Minnesota.

Bernie losing Minnesota is...a take. He could've done a hair worse in affluent Twin Cities suburbs, but he probably makes up for that by patching up some of the bleeding in the Iron Range, the Red River valley, and along the Iowa border.
MN is structurally more Dem than WI/PA/MI, and even more so when there is no truly significant third-party campaign.
MN is more akin to 1990s and 2000s OR in that regard - OR in 2000 was ultra-close because Nader was able to nab many voters away from Gore.
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brucejoel99
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« Reply #4 on: June 13, 2021, 10:01:47 PM »
« Edited: June 13, 2021, 10:04:49 PM by brucejoel99 »

Because it's incredibly likely that Bernie would've done worse than Biden.

Let's take a look back at the primary. In it, Bernie ultimately proved to be a poor campaigner & especially a poor political strategist: as both Lucky & Battle for the Soul made clear, his team's strategy to win the nomination was to just get a plurality of the vote in the primaries thanks to a splintered field & then demand the nomination at a contested convention. Anybody with just a general understanding of Democratic politics could've told them that the aforementioned strategy was garbage & bound to completely collapse as soon as the most moderate candidates realized that the only candidates left with a chance at the nomination were Bernie & "Not Bernie" - as it turned out, Biden, in this case - & so just dropped out as a result. Hell, those of us right here on this forum could've told them that: say what can be said about moderate Democrats, but they're not as stupid as the Never-Trump Republicans were back in the 2016 primary, & tend to value safety & going with the option that's perceived as most electable above all else. Candidates like Buttigieg, Klobuchar, & Bloomberg could clearly see where the wind was blowing in terms of their candidacies, & they weren't about to risk damaging their reputations in Democratic politics by potentially depriving the party of its most "electable" candidate just for the pleasure of getting to stroke their egos for a few more months like Cruz, Kasich, & Rubio were all willing to do in the Republican primary 4 years prior. Basically, where the likes of Cruz, Kasich, & Rubio were all in it for themselves insofar as massaging their egos in a fruitless quest for the nomination was concerned, the moderate Democrats of 2020 - although also in it for themselves - were such in the sense of "doing what's best for the party keeps their reputations therein intact."

Moreover, Bernie's performance in the primaries proved that he'd been unable to expand his 2016 base of support in any significant fashion, which was unfortunate for him because his base of support was largely predicated upon a group of voters - young voters - that already tend to turn-out in especially low numbers, which remained the case even when none other than he himself was the name that was being printed on their ballots. What's more, outright giving up on reaching out to Black voters - as Lucky & Battle for the Soul both made clear - certainly didn't do him any favors on this front either.

Finally, in regards to the general election, Republican messaging in-real-life was literally all about Bernie & his policies. Trump literally ignored Biden & what his policies actually are in the process of trying with all of his muster to paint the Democrats as "Bernie's party of radical liberal progressive socialist Marxists." Just as Bernie had put all of his primary eggs into the basket of "fighting for the nomination at a contested convention after getting a plurality of the vote in the primaries thanks to a splintered field that hopefully isn't ruined by any of the moderates dropping out in the meantime," Republicans had clearly put all of their general eggs into the assumption that Bernie would be the Democratic nominee whom they'd be facing off against, a strategy which the nomination of Biden - for whom they had no credibility to attack as a radical leftist - served to completely upend. And yet, even with Biden having been the nominee, their strategy still turned out to be surprisingly successful insofar as "convincing a significant sum of people that Biden was a radical leftist whom would impose the threat of socialist Marxism upon them just like Bernie would" was concerned, as was made evident by the fact that shifts totaling just 21,461 votes in GA, WI, & AZ would've seen Trump re-taking the White House in spite of literally everything that was going on at the time. Suffice it to say that this strategy would've undeniably been a much easier undertaking - & a more successful one too - for the Republicans had Bernie actually been the nominee, to an extent that even Bernie's Latino base & canvassing in-person may not have been enough to counteract all of that. It was hard to credibly attack Biden as a radical leftist, & yet it damn near worked. If Bernie had actually been the nominee, that attack would - rightly or wrongly - have carried a lot more credibility, & would've undoubtedly been more successful as a result: socialist Bernie surely wasn't winning FL & fracking-ban Bernie surely wasn't winning PA, not to mention that perpetually-bad-with-Black-voters Bernie surely wasn't gonna get the necessary margins among them to win GA by just 11K votes.

And jumping off of that lattermost point concerning Bernie's relationship with Black voters, say goodbye to Senator Ossoff: Perdue was just 27K votes away from preventing a run-off, & he probably manages to end up doing so in this scenario. Even if Bernie could somehow still manage to win 270 EVs in this scenario, he likely doesn't have a Senate to work with, & even if Bernie still won 270 EVs *&* Perdue still went to a run-off in this scenario, who knows if Trump's overturn-the-election tantrum is even still enough to result in both of GA's Senate seats going to the Democrats at the end of the day?

Suffice it to say that it's not at all unreasonable for many people to think that Bernie would've done worse than Biden.
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perpetual_cynic
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« Reply #5 on: June 13, 2021, 10:59:17 PM »

I believe Bernie Sanders would have done better in the general election than Joe Biden, for two main reasons:

- He was winning Latinos in the primary easily, and Biden absolutely collapsed with them in the general election.

- He would not have stopped in-person canvassing, which as it turns out isn't THAT dangerous COVID-wise. That was the Democratic Party's unilateral surrender, and it nearly cost them the 2020 election, and several winnable House races no doubt.

I just wonder where this conventional wisdom comes from.

That's what I find so ironic is that Bernie did so well with Latinos and then look what happened in the general. It would have been a coin toss I think between Bernie and Trump because Bernie wouldn't have been able to claw back at the moderate suburban voters that Biden gained to win key states like Wisconsin, Michigan and Minnesota.

Bernie losing Minnesota is...a take. He could've done a hair worse in affluent Twin Cities suburbs, but he probably makes up for that by patching up some of the bleeding in the Iron Range, the Red River valley, and along the Iowa border.

Minnesota is not relevant, I shouldn't have brought that up. The only reason it was close in 2016 was because of third-parties. Do you really think voters in Ozaukee and Waukesha counties in Wisconsin would come out and shift towards the Democrats if Bernie was on the ticket? How about Oakland County MI, or better yet Kent County MI, where Biden carried it but John James carried it in the Senate race? These voters may be anti-Trump but they aren't willing to risk their pocketbooks I guarantee you that.
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« Reply #6 on: June 13, 2021, 11:41:20 PM »

- The type of Latinos who vote in democratic primaries are not the same in general elections, I doubt he would do better
- considering Sanders is old, it would not be very wise to campaign during Covid as well. That's being said, killing of door knocking was a dumb strategy 
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President Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #7 on: June 13, 2021, 11:52:20 PM »

- The type of Latinos who vote in democratic primaries are not the same in general elections, I doubt he would do better
- considering Sanders is old, it would not be very wise to campaign during Covid as well. That's being said, killing of door knocking was a dumb strategy 
I suspect Sanders does worse among Latino swing voters than Biden did.
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perpetual_cynic
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« Reply #8 on: June 13, 2021, 11:54:53 PM »

- The type of Latinos who vote in democratic primaries are not the same in general elections, I doubt he would do better
- considering Sanders is old, it would not be very wise to campaign during Covid as well. That's being said, killing of door knocking was a dumb strategy 
I suspect Sanders does worse among Latino swing voters than Biden did.

If it is true that it was because of the socialist attacks by Trump, Sanders would have been an easier target.
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« Reply #9 on: June 14, 2021, 12:03:57 AM »

- The type of Latinos who vote in democratic primaries are not the same in general elections, I doubt he would do better
- considering Sanders is old, it would not be very wise to campaign during Covid as well. That's being said, killing of door knocking was a dumb strategy 
I suspect Sanders does worse among Latino swing voters than Biden did.

If it is true that it was because of the socialist attacks by Trump, Sanders would have been an easier target.
I agree.
Socialism might not be an effective talking point to young native-born left-leaning milennials, but  to immigrant communities with very strong ties to Latin America, and aware of the class tensions in Latin American societies, it probably would have been much more effective.
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perpetual_cynic
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« Reply #10 on: June 14, 2021, 12:09:31 AM »

- The type of Latinos who vote in democratic primaries are not the same in general elections, I doubt he would do better
- considering Sanders is old, it would not be very wise to campaign during Covid as well. That's being said, killing of door knocking was a dumb strategy  
I suspect Sanders does worse among Latino swing voters than Biden did.

If it is true that it was because of the socialist attacks by Trump, Sanders would have been an easier target.
I agree.
Socialism might not be an effective talking point to young native-born left-leaning milennials, but  to immigrant communities with very strong ties to Latin America, and aware of the class tensions in Latin American societies, it probably would have been much more effective.

Yes. I also think the turnout was too low in the Dem primaries in Latino-heavy areas particularly in TX to make a determination as to why they chose Sanders.
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President Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #11 on: June 14, 2021, 12:11:30 AM »

- The type of Latinos who vote in democratic primaries are not the same in general elections, I doubt he would do better
- considering Sanders is old, it would not be very wise to campaign during Covid as well. That's being said, killing of door knocking was a dumb strategy 
I suspect Sanders does worse among Latino swing voters than Biden did.

If it is true that it was because of the socialist attacks by Trump, Sanders would have been an easier target.
I agree.
Socialism might not be an effective talking point to young native-born left-leaning milennials, but  to immigrant communities with very strong ties to Latin America, and aware of the class tensions in Latin American societies, it probably would have been much more effective.

I think the turnout was too low in the Dem primaries in Latino-heavy areas particularly in TX to make a determination as to why they chose Sanders.
That's an interesting point.
It'd be interesting to see if research existed on what distinguished the Latino Dem primary electorate with the overall Latino electorate as well as Latinos as a whole.
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perpetual_cynic
erwint.2021
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« Reply #12 on: June 14, 2021, 12:13:58 AM »

- The type of Latinos who vote in democratic primaries are not the same in general elections, I doubt he would do better
- considering Sanders is old, it would not be very wise to campaign during Covid as well. That's being said, killing of door knocking was a dumb strategy  
I suspect Sanders does worse among Latino swing voters than Biden did.

If it is true that it was because of the socialist attacks by Trump, Sanders would have been an easier target.
I agree.
Socialism might not be an effective talking point to young native-born left-leaning milennials, but  to immigrant communities with very strong ties to Latin America, and aware of the class tensions in Latin American societies, it probably would have been much more effective.

I think the turnout was too low in the Dem primaries in Latino-heavy areas particularly in TX to make a determination as to why they chose Sanders.
That's an interesting point.
It'd be interesting to see if research existed on what distinguished the Latino Dem primary electorate with the overall Latino electorate as well as Latinos as a whole.

It could have also been that Latinos simply changed their minds between the Dem primary and the 2020 election. Biden talked about the economy but I he really focused more on moderation than Sanders. Sanders focused more on the economy than Biden, I think, and polls have shown that Latinos are much more reactive to economic policy than anything else.
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President Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #13 on: June 14, 2021, 12:22:43 AM »

- The type of Latinos who vote in democratic primaries are not the same in general elections, I doubt he would do better
- considering Sanders is old, it would not be very wise to campaign during Covid as well. That's being said, killing of door knocking was a dumb strategy  
I suspect Sanders does worse among Latino swing voters than Biden did.

If it is true that it was because of the socialist attacks by Trump, Sanders would have been an easier target.
I agree.
Socialism might not be an effective talking point to young native-born left-leaning milennials, but  to immigrant communities with very strong ties to Latin America, and aware of the class tensions in Latin American societies, it probably would have been much more effective.

I think the turnout was too low in the Dem primaries in Latino-heavy areas particularly in TX to make a determination as to why they chose Sanders.
That's an interesting point.
It'd be interesting to see if research existed on what distinguished the Latino Dem primary electorate with the overall Latino electorate as well as Latinos as a whole.

It could have also been that Latinos simply changed their minds between the Dem primary and the 2020 election. Biden talked about the economy but I he really focused more on moderation than Sanders. Sanders focused more on the economy than Biden, I think, and polls have shown that Latinos are much more reactive to economic policy than anything else.
Sanders' way of talk about pocketbook issues helped him a lot with certain kinds of the Latino electorate, while Biden ran the same sort of "let's unify America" sort of campaign he ran in GE from day one of his primary campaign. So I can see why many Latinos did vote for Sanders; that doesn't mean they were making a GE choice that early, though for all intents and purposes I'd assume the lion's share of Latinos who vote in Dem primaries are also reliable Dem voters.
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Mr. Smith
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« Reply #14 on: June 14, 2021, 11:57:45 PM »

Reflexive fear of the left when it all comes down to it, or more accurately, the far right and an utter lack of imagination or faith to find a path that isn't appeasement...which of course the left is not standing for.

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MARGINS6729
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« Reply #15 on: June 17, 2021, 05:15:42 AM »

Because it's incredibly likely that Bernie would've done worse than Biden.

Let's take a look back at the primary. In it, Bernie ultimately proved to be a poor campaigner & especially a poor political strategist: as both Lucky & Battle for the Soul made clear, his team's strategy to win the nomination was to just get a plurality of the vote in the primaries thanks to a splintered field & then demand the nomination at a contested convention. Anybody with just a general understanding of Democratic politics could've told them that the aforementioned strategy was garbage & bound to completely collapse as soon as the most moderate candidates realized that the only candidates left with a chance at the nomination were Bernie & "Not Bernie" - as it turned out, Biden, in this case - & so just dropped out as a result. Hell, those of us right here on this forum could've told them that: say what can be said about moderate Democrats, but they're not as stupid as the Never-Trump Republicans were back in the 2016 primary, & tend to value safety & going with the option that's perceived as most electable above all else. Candidates like Buttigieg, Klobuchar, & Bloomberg could clearly see where the wind was blowing in terms of their candidacies, & they weren't about to risk damaging their reputations in Democratic politics by potentially depriving the party of its most "electable" candidate just for the pleasure of getting to stroke their egos for a few more months like Cruz, Kasich, & Rubio were all willing to do in the Republican primary 4 years prior. Basically, where the likes of Cruz, Kasich, & Rubio were all in it for themselves insofar as massaging their egos in a fruitless quest for the nomination was concerned, the moderate Democrats of 2020 - although also in it for themselves - were such in the sense of "doing what's best for the party keeps their reputations therein intact."

Moreover, Bernie's performance in the primaries proved that he'd been unable to expand his 2016 base of support in any significant fashion, which was unfortunate for him because his base of support was largely predicated upon a group of voters - young voters - that already tend to turn-out in especially low numbers, which remained the case even when none other than he himself was the name that was being printed on their ballots. What's more, outright giving up on reaching out to Black voters - as Lucky & Battle for the Soul both made clear - certainly didn't do him any favors on this front either.

Finally, in regards to the general election, Republican messaging in-real-life was literally all about Bernie & his policies. Trump literally ignored Biden & what his policies actually are in the process of trying with all of his muster to paint the Democrats as "Bernie's party of radical liberal progressive socialist Marxists." Just as Bernie had put all of his primary eggs into the basket of "fighting for the nomination at a contested convention after getting a plurality of the vote in the primaries thanks to a splintered field that hopefully isn't ruined by any of the moderates dropping out in the meantime," Republicans had clearly put all of their general eggs into the assumption that Bernie would be the Democratic nominee whom they'd be facing off against, a strategy which the nomination of Biden - for whom they had no credibility to attack as a radical leftist - served to completely upend. And yet, even with Biden having been the nominee, their strategy still turned out to be surprisingly successful insofar as "convincing a significant sum of people that Biden was a radical leftist whom would impose the threat of socialist Marxism upon them just like Bernie would" was concerned, as was made evident by the fact that shifts totaling just 21,461 votes in GA, WI, & AZ would've seen Trump re-taking the White House in spite of literally everything that was going on at the time. Suffice it to say that this strategy would've undeniably been a much easier undertaking - & a more successful one too - for the Republicans had Bernie actually been the nominee, to an extent that even Bernie's Latino base & canvassing in-person may not have been enough to counteract all of that. It was hard to credibly attack Biden as a radical leftist, & yet it damn near worked. If Bernie had actually been the nominee, that attack would - rightly or wrongly - have carried a lot more credibility, & would've undoubtedly been more successful as a result: socialist Bernie surely wasn't winning FL & fracking-ban Bernie surely wasn't winning PA, not to mention that perpetually-bad-with-Black-voters Bernie surely wasn't gonna get the necessary margins among them to win GA by just 11K votes.

And jumping off of that lattermost point concerning Bernie's relationship with Black voters, say goodbye to Senator Ossoff: Perdue was just 27K votes away from preventing a run-off, & he probably manages to end up doing so in this scenario. Even if Bernie could somehow still manage to win 270 EVs in this scenario, he likely doesn't have a Senate to work with, & even if Bernie still won 270 EVs *&* Perdue still went to a run-off in this scenario, who knows if Trump's overturn-the-election tantrum is even still enough to result in both of GA's Senate seats going to the Democrats at the end of the day?

Suffice it to say that it's not at all unreasonable for many people to think that Bernie would've done worse than Biden.

Completely agree but to add on to this the reason the attack almost worked is because the GOP took advantage of doubts on Biden's mental state and him deciding not to do retail campaigning(which is Biden's strength) to paint him as a trojan horse candidate, someone who would just be a figurehead while Sanders, the Squad, and Harris ran the show. Defund the police messaging and the riots was a big problem and the Democrats did not counter it effectively. Biden's campaign and Democrats at large were arrogant in assuming him being VP and him beating Sanders was enough for people to differentiate him and the DEMs as a whole from the extreme left who have dominated the image of the party for the last two years in particular. This was especially an issue in Miami-Dade County where the Republicans killed us. More moderate candidates need to stop being complacent in thinking that the electorate automatically differentiates them from the extreme voices in the party that are the ones that get the most news coverage.
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« Reply #16 on: June 18, 2021, 06:39:17 PM »

I believe Bernie Sanders would have done better in the general election than Joe Biden, for two main reasons:

- He was winning Latinos in the primary easily, and Biden absolutely collapsed with them in the general election.

- He would not have stopped in-person canvassing, which as it turns out isn't THAT dangerous COVID-wise. That was the Democratic Party's unilateral surrender, and it nearly cost them the 2020 election, and several winnable House races no doubt.

I just wonder where this conventional wisdom comes from.

Why on Earth would Latino voters have a Sanders > Trump > Biden preference? That makes no sense, especially since Biden lost these voters due to fears of socialism and Trump's 'law and order' message. Latinos that supported Sanders in the primary almost certainly went to Biden in the general.

What makes you think Sanders wouldn't have stopped in-person canvassing?
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« Reply #17 on: June 18, 2021, 10:28:07 PM »

Because Bernie sucked and a fair amount of people who voted for Biden wouldn't have voted for Bernie. 

If Bernie were the nominee he'd undoubtedly have lost Pennsylvania, Georgia, and Arizona.  And Florida wouldn't have even looked competitive so Trump wouldn't have been forced to spend money there.  Bernie bros don't want to accept this but Bernie was simply too liberal and out of touch for a general electorate.
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« Reply #18 on: June 20, 2021, 02:55:30 PM »

- The type of Latinos who vote in democratic primaries are not the same in general elections, I doubt he would do better
- considering Sanders is old, it would not be very wise to campaign during Covid as well. That's being said, killing of door knocking was a dumb strategy 
I suspect Sanders does worse among Latino swing voters than Biden did.

If it is true that it was because of the socialist attacks by Trump, Sanders would have been an easier target.

Reagan was supposed to be an easy target for "taking away social security" compared to Bush.

Trump the racist was a much easier target in 2016 than Cruz or Kasich or whoever.
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« Reply #19 on: June 20, 2021, 03:02:38 PM »

- The type of Latinos who vote in democratic primaries are not the same in general elections, I doubt he would do better
- considering Sanders is old, it would not be very wise to campaign during Covid as well. That's being said, killing of door knocking was a dumb strategy 
I suspect Sanders does worse among Latino swing voters than Biden did.

If it is true that it was because of the socialist attacks by Trump, Sanders would have been an easier target.

Reagan was supposed to be an easy target for "taking away social security" compared to Bush.

Trump the racist was a much easier target in 2016 than Cruz or Kasich or whoever.


Cruz would have been easy to portray as a theocrat, an extremist, and an unlikable smug dickhead. He probably would not win over WWC swing voters in states like MI/PA/WI like Trump was able to.

Kasich is another story. He probably would have won by more than Trump.
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« Reply #20 on: June 21, 2021, 01:42:12 PM »

I believe Bernie Sanders would have done better in the general election than Joe Biden, for two main reasons:

- He was winning Latinos in the primary easily, and Biden absolutely collapsed with them in the general election.

- He would not have stopped in-person canvassing, which as it turns out isn't THAT dangerous COVID-wise. That was the Democratic Party's unilateral surrender, and it nearly cost them the 2020 election, and several winnable House races no doubt.

I just wonder where this conventional wisdom comes from.
Just because Bernie won hispanics in the primary doesn't mean he would do better in the general. I would assume Bernie hispanic primary voters all voted for Biden. The shift for Hispanics towards Trump came almost entirely from first time voters who weren't going to vote Democrat at all
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« Reply #21 on: June 22, 2021, 01:24:41 PM »

- The type of Latinos who vote in democratic primaries are not the same in general elections, I doubt he would do better
- considering Sanders is old, it would not be very wise to campaign during Covid as well. That's being said, killing of door knocking was a dumb strategy  
I suspect Sanders does worse among Latino swing voters than Biden did.

If it is true that it was because of the socialist attacks by Trump, Sanders would have been an easier target.

Reagan was supposed to be an easy target for "taking away social security" compared to Bush.

Trump the racist was a much easier target in 2016 than Cruz or Kasich or whoever.



Why does this Reagan myth still come up ,  as the fact is he literally was the only Republican to be polled against Carter  in 1979 as  no republican other than Reagan was expected to get the nomination unless Ford had run . Bush wasn’t even considered that much of a serious candidate until he won an upset win in Iowa as he was literally polling in single digits against them . Also Reagan unlike Bernie had most of the support of the establishment in his party in his 1980 bid so again this is another myth that is just not true .


The democratic version of Reagan was not Bernie Sanders , it was Barack Obama but the problem is you elected him in your version of 1968 instead of 1980 and in 1968 you need a Nixon not a Reagan
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Pericles
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« Reply #22 on: June 30, 2021, 11:04:28 PM »

It seems obvious that Bernie would have done worse. Biden did fine with turnout since he got 81 million votes, there aren't a lot of voters who would have turned out for a different nominee. So if Bernie wasn't needed to energise the base, it's hard to see the upside for him. Sure, he might have done better with Latinos-but those who swung to Trump had conservative attitudes anyway and whether they voted for him because of attitudes on the economy, policing or Covid, it's hard to see how Bernie would have been more appealing. Biden did well with white voters, who are more numerous than the demographics that swung to Trump.

Bernie wouldn't have had much appeal to moderate voters, he would have been much more tied to the unpopular stances Trump tried to attack Biden on and stuff like the 'socialism' issue and MedicareforAll would have hurt him. Biden won because unlike Clinton (this is odd but true) he was seen as more moderate than Trump. And in-person canvassing doesn't matter that much, those things are only worth a few tenths of a percentage point and are nothing compared to the image and message of the candidates. So Bernie wouldn't have gotten many more voters and would have been less appealing to the swing voter Biden flipped-so Trump would have won the Electoral College.
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #23 on: July 01, 2021, 06:02:11 PM »

While the Socialism! *ominous wind howl* attacks didn't end Biden, they stuck a little more than they should have. With Sanders being a self-identified, proud Socialist they would have stuck even more. And in an election as close as this was, it could have made a difference.

Not only that, but his closeness to the right wing obsession with the Squad and closer ties to the activist portion of the Democratic Party might have hindered his performance as well, especially since "defund the police" fear-mongering was more successful than initially thought as well.

His performance with Hispanics in the primary really may not have translated to the general election. Primaries are rarely accurate indicators of demographics in general elections.
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« Reply #24 on: July 01, 2021, 10:17:37 PM »

Bernie did a lot worse in the primaries this time around.
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