VA-JMC- McAuliffe +4

[Matty]

https://mobile.twitter.com/ChazNuttycombe/status/1404116691362123776

First non internal VA poll

Solid result for dems

[Roll Roons]

https://cnalysis.com/articles/poll-democrats-hold-slight-leads-in-2021-virginia-elections/

Governor:
Terry McAuliffe (D), 46%
Glenn Youngkin (R), 42%

LG:
Hala Ayala (D), 42%
Winsome Sears (R), 36%

AG:
Mark Herring (D-incumbent), 45%
Jason Miyares (R) 38%

House generic ballot:
Democrats 44%
Republicans 43%

[SnowLabrador]

That's rather worrying. McAuliffe needs to win by double digits in order to not give the GOP momentum heading into 2022.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

McAuliffe wins 53/47%

[SnowLabrador]

McAuliffe will win, but by an embarrassingly low margin.

[Skill and Chance]

Wow, this poll basically looks like a reversion to the Obama era.  Also somewhat surprised that Alaya is outrunning McAuliffe. 

[Skill and Chance]

McAuliffe will win, but by an embarrassingly low margin.

People forget how much being the opposite party of the president helps in VA. 

Going to be hilarious if McAuliffe ends up being the only same party governor to win for another 50 years. 

[Roll Roons]

FWIW, Virginia wasn't polled much in 2020 because it wasn't really considered competitive, but the polls that we did get were pretty accurate.

[CookieDamage]

Throw it in the average. That Biden approval is way too low

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

June 9-12
550 likely voters
MoE: 4.2%

[Skill and Chance]

FWIW, Virginia wasn't polled much in 2020 because it wasn't really considered competitive, but the polls that we did get were pretty accurate.

Looking at VA polling in post-Obama elections:

VA-GOV 2013: overestimated McAuliffe (D) by 3-4%
VA-SEN 2014: overestimated Warner (D) by 8%
VA President 2016: accurate to within 1%
VA-GOV 2017: underestimated Northam (D) by 5-6%
VA-SEN 2018: slightly overestimated Kaine (D) by perhaps 1-2%, very few polls because considered uncompetitive, includes stuff from several months before the election with tons of undecideds
VA President 2020: slight overestimation of Biden, perhaps 1-2%, nothing like the nationwide error
VA-SEN 2020: overestimated Warner by perhaps 4%, but the sample includes several early 5X/3X polls with tons of undecideds like in 2018 VA-SEN

This isn't like the Midwestern states where McAuliffe +4 in the polling average would mean to expect a Youngkin win, and the big errors from the early 2010's seem to have been fixed, and even repeating the 2013 error would have McAuliffe winning in a recount.  However, the Dem still needs to be up by at least 2-3 in the polling average to be confident. 

What's interesting is that D executive offices/R legislature split ticket voting looks very much alive.  The Dem House majority would be gone at only D+1.

[President Johnson]

Well, Youngkin ending up at 42% isn't that unreasonable. I think he'll end up at 43-45%, while T-Mac gets 52-54%.

Contrary to this poll, I predict the other Democrats will slightly underperform T-Mac. All will win of course.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

That's rather worrying. McAuliffe needs to win by double digits in order to not give the GOP momentum heading into 2022.

You’re afraid of your own shadow.

[President Johnson]

That's rather worrying. McAuliffe needs to win by double digits in order to not give the GOP momentum heading into 2022.

You’re afraid of your own shadow.

Yes, and no matter how Virginia turns out, it will have zero implications for 2022 whatsoever.

[neostassenite31]

Wow, the generic state house ballot is only D+1. I don't want to sound like a doomer, but these are definitively not ideal poll results

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

50% say they voted for Joe Biden in the 2020 presidential election, 42% say they voted for Donald Trump, 4% say they voted third party, and 3% say they did not vote in the 2020 presidential election.

49% of respondents approved of President Biden’s job in the White House so far, 44% disapproved, and 7% had no opinion.


Biden+8 sample, approval only Biden +5

[OSR stands with Israel]

That's rather worrying. McAuliffe needs to win by double digits in order to not give the GOP momentum heading into 2022.

You’re afraid of your own shadow.

Yes, and no matter how Virginia turns out, it will have zero implications for 2022 whatsoever.

even 2009 while it foreshadowed a wave didnt have much implications for 2010 given that the GOP in 2010 didnt do that great in blue states like the New Jersey result in 2009 would indicate and while they did great in swing states nothing like the 2009 Virginia result would have portended.

[wbrocks67]

Yeah, sorry, I take full responsibility if I have egg on my face, but this poll has a ton of issues, clearly.

Biden +5 approval in a Biden +10 state?
McAuliffe +1 among 18-34?
Biden 22% disapproval among blacks?
McAuliffe losing Hispanics?
Northam only +1 approval?

It's clear this is nowhere near indicative of reality, or honestly, any of the other actual evidence or polls we've gotten out of this state.

Not to mention, we're dealing with the same high undecided issues we've seen before, which makes this even more useless.

[wbrocks67]

Throw it in the average. That Biden approval is way too low

Yep. Biden's approval being +5 and Northam being +1 is just ridiculous.

[TodayJunior]

Did they forget to poll NoVa? I still think this race will be decided by 10-12%, 8-10% at the worst, favoring the Dems. Isn’t the GOP nominee very Trumpian? That’s not going to go over well here.

Also, This isn’t 2009-10 VA anymore. It’s clearly a blue state at every level, and there are no signs of these trends de accelerating, let alone reversing, anytime soon.

[Skunk]

It must have been raining while they polled this.

[DaleCooper]

That's rather worrying. McAuliffe needs to win by double digits in order to not give the GOP momentum heading into 2022.

Stop acting like this is a football game. The extent of McAuliffe's victory will have no impact on how people vote in Arizona or anywhere else for that matter. It may be a reflection of a broader trend, or it may not, but this sports language is not an accurate way to assess electoral politics.

[Skill and Chance]

Did they forget to poll NoVa? I still think this race will be decided by 10-12%, at worst 8-10% favoring the Dems. This isn’t 2009-10 VA anymore. It’s clearly a blue state at every level, and there are no signs of these trends de accelerating, let alone reversing, anytime soon.

Interestingly, if you look at the crosstabs, basically all of McAuliffe's decline vs. Biden is in NOVA.  NOVA looks like the Obama era in this poll, but the rest of the state looks just like 2020.  

[Skill and Chance]

That's rather worrying. McAuliffe needs to win by double digits in order to not give the GOP momentum heading into 2022.

Stop acting like this is a football game. The extent of McAuliffe's victory will have no impact on how people vote in Arizona or anywhere else for that matter. It may be a reflection of a broader trend, or it may not, but this sports language is not an accurate way to assess electoral politics.

What would be alarming for national Dems is if he loses.  The margin isn't particularly relevant (extending the VA 2017 results nationwide would not have been sufficient to flip the House in 2018).

[TodayJunior]

Did they forget to poll NoVa? I still think this race will be decided by 10-12%, at worst 8-10% favoring the Dems. This isn’t 2009-10 VA anymore. It’s clearly a blue state at every level, and there are no signs of these trends de accelerating, let alone reversing, anytime soon.

Interestingly, if you look at the crosstabs, basically all of McAuliffe's decline vs. Biden is in NOVA.  NOVA looks like the Obama era in this poll, but the rest of the state looks just like 2020.  

Exactly. That doesn’t make any sense.