MO-R primary (MOScout): Greitens +9

[RogueBeaver]

https://twitter.com/JeffSmithMO/status/1403701138432704514

[wbrocks67]

Isn't Greitens the worst possible outcome for Reps here? (besides maybe Mark McCloskey lmao)

[MT Treasurer]

Good thing "the [supposedly] worst possible outcome for Reps" still means a Likely/Safe R race here. I don’t think Greitens wins the primary when all is said and done, though. I’d bet on Schmitt right now (would be Safe R with him), but it’s obviously very early.

[SnowLabrador]

It's Safe R no matter who wins the primary, but for what it's worth, I doubt it'll be Greitens.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

https://moscout.com/daily-updates-1/2021/6/12/moscout-weekender-greitens-leads-field-but-anyones-game-emery-for-cd-4-schroer-pac-gets-200k-hallway-on-us-senate-and-more

June 9-10
1011 likely primary voters
MoE: 3%

Some candidates are pursuing the endorsement of President Donald Trump. If Trump were to endorse a candidate in the United States Senate race, how would that influence your vote?: Trump +47

Probably/definitely vote for the candidate Trump endorsed 63%
Probably vote against the candidate Trump endorsed 16%
No difference 22%

Primary poll - changes with March 24-25 poll:
Greitens 34 (+3)
Schmitt 25 (+7)
Hartzler 14 (+6)
McCloskey 7 (not previously included)
Undecided 20 (+6)

Previously included: Annn Wagner at 12%, Jason Smith at 9%, Billy Long at 6%, John Brunner at 2%

[Mail-order President]

Whoever Trump endorses will win.

[UWS]

Good news. Schmitt is trailing by just 9. He still has time to overtake Greitens.

[Progressive Pessimist]

I'm actually kind of happy to see McCloskey barely making an impact in the primary, according to this poll, but Greitens is just as bad. Why doesn't Todd Akin try again too, while he's at it? Let's make this the worst, most overpopulated clown car possible! Come on Missouri! "Show me" how bad your next Senator is going to be, and if you'll indeed end up having the worst pair of Senators!

[TML]

Whoever Trump endorses will win.

Tell that to Incumbent Senator Luther Strange.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Whoever Trump endorses will win.

Tell that to Incumbent Senator Luther Strange.

Whatever power the Trump endorsement did have is likely to whittle down at least a bit the more time he spends out of office.

[VAR]

I don't expect a particularly crowded primary field, mostly because some of these representatives (e.g. Smith, Wagner) may opt to run for reelection to the House in the event that they fail to gain traction. They (smartly) realize their careers are on the line, and staying in the House is much preferable to getting ~10% in a Senate primary.

Of course, this isn't ideal for Greitens, whose only chance of winning the primary is to win with a plurality in a divided field.

[Pericles]

What was the next question, that seems very leading lol.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Of course, this isn't ideal for Greitens, whose only chance of winning the primary is to win with a plurality in a divided field.

He's consistently been the polling frontrunner. If and when the Republican apparatus moves against him, erosion of that support is entirely plausible, and he's a somewhat weak frontrunner who's not yet cracked 50%.

However, Remington projected him in the lead even in a head-to-head matchup with Schmitt, and he could probably do with McCloskey out of the race. "A divided field is his only chance" is overstating it. Greitens' best chance is landing a Trump endorsement, and he might be able to shake off his abuse scandal in the primary on the basis of "standing up to the cancellation mob."

[VAR]

Of course, this isn't ideal for Greitens, whose only chance of winning the primary is to win with a plurality in a divided field.

He's consistently been the polling frontrunner. If and when the Republican apparatus moves against him, erosion of that support is entirely plausible, and he's a somewhat weak frontrunner who's not yet cracked 50%.

However, Remington projected him in the lead even in a head-to-head matchup with Schmitt, and he could probably do with McCloskey out of the race. "A divided field is his only chance" is overstating it. Greitens' best chance is landing a Trump endorsement, and he might be able to shake off his abuse scandal in the primary on the basis of "standing up to the cancellation mob."

I don't think Trump will endorse Greitens, but I'd consider him favored if he did land a Trump endorsement (he could still lose, though.) Regarding the state of the race right now, I think people are forgetting that Greitens still has much higher name recognition than Schmitt, Hartzler, et al., and I don't think he's necessarily the only person who can pull off the 'stand up to the mob' schtick.