How would Ron Johnson perform in WOW?

[Woody]

?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Rs are Endangered of not just losing the 303 freiwall in the Senate but losing OH, NC, FL because in order for D's to keep the H, they have to win red wall states.

Tom Nelson is a great candidate and he is inspiring younger voters whom have questions about Tony Evers, to vote D, the last two polls showed both Evers and Nelson leading 48/44%, Change and Democracy Corp

[MT Treasurer]

This is an area with legions of low-propensity Trump voters who will probably stay home without Trump on the ballot, so we can’t say for sure, but my guess:

Waukesha: R+25 (4-point R swing from 2020, 13-point D swing from 2016-SEN)
Washington: R+40 (2-point R swing from 2020, 8-point D swing from 2016-SEN)
Ozaukee: R+15 (3-point R swing from 2020, 17-point D swing from 2016-SEN)

Numbers like these are enough for RoJo to win but partly why I doubt that WI will vote more than 1-2% (if at all) to the right of PA.

Also, hot take: Mike Gallagher wouldn’t do better than the R incumbent in these counties.

[Xing]

They’ll be the only counties he wins if he runs, and they won’t be enough to save him from getting Blanched, but since Trump’s underperformance was 100% flukish, he’ll probably win Waukesha by 35 or so, Ozaukee by 28 and Washington by 45. Less than any other non-Trump Republican, but there are thousands of voters here who would vote for literally any Republican, including MTG, except Trump.

If Steil or Gallagher run, though, the Democrats will be lucky to get more than 100 votes total across the three counties.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

This is an area with legions of low-propensity Trump voters who will probably stay home without Trump on the ballot, so we can’t say for sure, but my guess:

Waukesha: R+25 (4-point R swing from 2020, 13-point D swing from 2016-SEN)
Washington: R+40 (2-point R swing from 2020, 8-point D swing from 2016-SEN)
Ozaukee: R+15 (3-point R swing from 2020, 17-point D swing from 2016-SEN)

Numbers like these are enough for RoJo to win but partly why I doubt that WI will vote more than 1-2% (if at all) to the right of PA.

Also, hot take: Mike Gallagher wouldn’t do better than the R incumbent in these counties.

You know Johnson made silly comments about the Insurrectionists, right and white supremacists, he deserves to lose, if D's defeat him, we will have a good night

[S019]

I'm actually going to take the opposite view of Xing and IndyRep, and say that I think WW votes closer to President 2016 than President 2020. I don't think Democratic gains will be as long lasting in WOW, as rather than being suburbs, which is characteristic of where Ds made gains, these are more like exurbs, with the exception of Ozaukee, which due to Mequon, does have more of a suburban character. I do think Democratic gains in Ozaukee, though, will last for that reason.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

They’ll be the only counties he wins if he runs, and they won’t be enough to save him from getting Blanched, but since Trump’s underperformance was 100% flukish, he’ll probably win Waukesha by 35 or so, Ozaukee by 28 and Washington by 45. Less than any other non-Trump Republican, but there are thousands of voters here who would vote for literally any Republican, including MTG, except Trump.

If Steil or Gallagher run, though, the Democrats will be lucky to get more than 100 votes total across the three counties.

Xing act likes Tammy Baldwin didn't win WI by 10, that she lost it by 10, she won a landslide

[Schiff for Senate]

Wins, but by somewhat less than Trump in 2020; perhaps he underperforms Trump by 3-4% in each of them. (Because he claims election results in his own state were fraudulent. It's different for Josh Hawley and John Kennedy because Missouri and Lousiana voted for Trump solidly, but Wisconsin voted for Biden.)

[MT Treasurer]

They’ll be the only counties he wins if he runs, and they won’t be enough to save him from getting Blanched, but since Trump’s underperformance was 100% flukish, he’ll probably win Waukesha by 35 or so, Ozaukee by 28 and Washington by 45. Less than any other non-Trump Republican, but there are thousands of voters here who would vote for literally any Republican, including MTG, except Trump.

If Steil or Gallagher run, though, the Democrats will be lucky to get more than 100 votes total across the three counties.

Stellar analysis, but I do think even a God-tier candidate and moderate, reasonable Republican like Gallagher who doesn’t make radical, ill-founded, and dangerous comments on a daily basis, rebukes the 1/6 insurrectionists, and acknowledges Biden as the legitimate president would struggle to beat Mark Kelly in Waukesha, Ozaukee, and Washington Counties in a hypothetical 2024 presidential race.

[Sestak]

Good case here of how badly this board has declined. There are eight posts in this board above me. Over half of them are low-effort strawman posts poking fun at "Atlas" and "analysis" takes that no one has ever actually made.

This is literally all the CE and gubernatorial boards have been reduced to: six or so posters constantly fellating each other over incomprehensible nonsense while the gaggle of fourteen year old red avatars watches in awe of how 'cool' they are.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

I think he'd overperform a baseline republican, remember the WOW counties are filled with deeply conservative talk radio listening conservatives. No amount of #trends changes the fact that this area is filled with Rush Limabug fans and is extremely conservative. He will be able to inspire the traditional republican base to turn out while none of the democrat nominees seem to be inspiring. Hatred of the incumbent simply isn't enough to turnout democrats as we can see by how long Scott Walker survived.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

He'll probably outperform Trump due to it being a senate race. But I disagree with IndyRep that Gallagher wouldn't outperform Rojo. I think R's are much better of if Rojo retires

[UncleSam]

He’d win by more than Trump but less than his 2016 margin. Closer to 2016 though, I think.

[S019]

Good case here of how badly this board has declined. There are eight posts in this board above me. Over half of them are low-effort strawman posts poking fun at "Atlas" and "analysis" takes that no one has ever actually made.

This is literally all the CE and gubernatorial boards have been reduced to: six or so posters constantly fellating each other over incomprehensible nonsense while the gaggle of fourteen year old red avatars watches in awe of how 'cool' they are.

I mean there are people who literally think Ron Johnson is doomed because of being crazy or whatever, despite the fact that he made similar comments in 2010 and 2016. Also these strawmen are much more funny than the olawakandi white noise that half of the forum worships.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Ron Johnson is DOA, Evers has a 53% Approvals and Tammy Baldwin won by 10pts, and Johnson is under 50% in the last polls

He isn't guarenteed to win either, except for Xing whom thinks Baldwin lost 10 and we never won WI, AZ, WI, PA are vital in holding the Senate as well as GA

Since we need 51 Senators not 50 to abolish the Filibuster, due to Manchin

[S019]

Ron Johnson is DOA, Evers has a 53% Approvals and Tammy Baldwin won by 10pts, and Johnson is under 50% in the last polls

He isn't guarenteed to win either, except for Xing whom thinks Baldwin lost 10 and we never won WI, AZ, WI, PA are vital in holding the Senate as well as GA

Since we need 51 Senators not 50 to abolish the Filibuster, due to Manchin

Did you just come here so you could match the stereotype of clueless posters who think Johnson is doomed?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Ron Johnson is DOA, Evers has a 53% Approvals and Tammy Baldwin won by 10pts, and Johnson is under 50% in the last polls

He isn't guarenteed to win either, except for Xing whom thinks Baldwin lost 10 and we never won WI, AZ, WI, PA are vital in holding the Senate as well as GA

Since we need 51 Senators not 50 to abolish the Filibuster, due to Manchin

Did you just come here so you could match the stereotype of clueless posters who think Johnson is doomed?

Yeah okay

But Xing was the very one that had a hackish map in 2020 like I did and he was wrong he predicted FL, NC, AZ going Dem, and he keep saying WI is Doomed for D's and Baldwin won by 10 pts is inaccurate

Johnson if he is ahead is up only by 5 TS like Rubio and DeSantis are Chamber of Commerce poll showing Rubio and DeSantis Winning by 10 has a House effect

5 pts behind isn't like being 5pts behind in AL where Jones lost by 20

[Xing]

Good case here of how badly this board has declined. There are eight posts in this board above me. Over half of them are low-effort strawman posts poking fun at "Atlas" and "analysis" takes that no one has ever actually made.

This is literally all the CE and gubernatorial boards have been reduced to: six or so posters constantly fellating each other over incomprehensible nonsense while the gaggle of fourteen year old red avatars watches in awe of how 'cool' they are.

I will never understand why people get more upset by joke posts than actual bad analysis, of which there is plenty on Atlas. The takes about how suburban counties will “snap back” are plentiful, and it’s not like every post of mine (or the other “memers”) or even half are joke posts. It says a lot about priorities here when many posters (as evidenced by the number of recommends) think harmless fun is worse than actual trolling or nastiness.

[Sestak]

Good case here of how badly this board has declined. There are eight posts in this board above me. Over half of them are low-effort strawman posts poking fun at "Atlas" and "analysis" takes that no one has ever actually made.

This is literally all the CE and gubernatorial boards have been reduced to: six or so posters constantly fellating each other over incomprehensible nonsense while the gaggle of fourteen year old red avatars watches in awe of how 'cool' they are.

I will never understand why people get more upset by joke posts than actual bad analysis, of which there is plenty on Atlas. The takes about how suburban counties will “snap back” are plentiful, and it’s not like every post of mine (or the other “memers”) or even half are joke posts. It says a lot about priorities here when many posters (as evidenced by the number of recommends) think harmless fun is worse than actual trolling or nastiness.

When the joke posts practically make up half the posts on the board then yes, of course we will take issue with it. It's not harmless if it is making the board literally unreadable - which is exactly the state of this board now. It doesn't particularly matter that bad analysis is more common than good analysis on here, since the memes easily outnumber both.

What quite simply has happened here is that you and your group of posters have decided that, since trends are absolute and determine everything, every single state-level race is fully predictable ~4-6 years in advance and therefore there is no reason to discuss them. Acting on this belief, you've chosen to s**t all over these boards so that no one else can discuss them either. Which is deeply unfair to everyone who actually thinks this can be a place for useful discussion.

I remember what this board was like four years ago when I first joined the forum. Was there a solid chunk of bad analysis? Sure. But the board was still readable and one could still get something out of it. Now we just have a s**tposting board.

[S019]

Good case here of how badly this board has declined. There are eight posts in this board above me. Over half of them are low-effort strawman posts poking fun at "Atlas" and "analysis" takes that no one has ever actually made.

This is literally all the CE and gubernatorial boards have been reduced to: six or so posters constantly fellating each other over incomprehensible nonsense while the gaggle of fourteen year old red avatars watches in awe of how 'cool' they are.

I will never understand why people get more upset by joke posts than actual bad analysis, of which there is plenty on Atlas. The takes about how suburban counties will “snap back” are plentiful, and it’s not like every post of mine (or the other “memers”) or even half are joke posts. It says a lot about priorities here when many posters (as evidenced by the number of recommends) think harmless fun is worse than actual trolling or nastiness.

When the joke posts practically make up half the posts on the board then yes, of course we will take issue with it. It's not harmless if it is making the board literally unreadable - which is exactly the state of this board now. It doesn't particularly matter that bad analysis is more common than good analysis on here, since the memes easily outnumber both.

What quite simply has happened here is that you and your group of posters have decided that, since trends are absolute and determine everything, every single state-level race is fully predictable ~4-6 years in advance and therefore there is no reason to discuss them. Acting on this belief, you've chosen to s**t all over these boards so that no one else can discuss them either. Which is deeply unfair to everyone who actually thinks this can be a place for useful discussion.

I remember what this board was like four years ago when I first joined the forum. Was there a solid chunk of bad analysis? Sure. But the board was still readable and one could still get something out of it. Now we just have a s**tposting board.

I really don't get why this is what people always complain about, and not like the actual trolling, especially on states like Florida. Like today, someone unironically posted that DeSantis will break 60% in Florida, when it is clear to anyone with a brain that the votes for that simply do not exist in a highly polarized state like FL, where barring extenuating circumstances, each party is guaranteed to get like 46% of the vote. It is annoying to read that type of "analysis," and it should be rightfully mocked.

[Aspi]

Johnson ran 11 points ahead of Trump 2016 in Waukesha county.  He ran ahead of Trump in Ozaukee and Washington too (13 pts, 6 pts).  Since 2016, however, he has vocally and publicly aligned with Trump.  I rate Johnson's ceiling at Gov-2018 and his floor at Trump 2020.  Probably closer to Trump 2020, because Gov-2018 reflects on Scott Walker's popularity.

Waukesha: R+25
Ozaukee: R+15
Washington: R+40

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Johnson ran 11 points ahead of Trump 2016 in Waukesha county.  He ran ahead of Trump in Ozaukee and Washington too (13 pts, 6 pts).  Since 2016, however, he has vocally and publicly aligned with Trump.  I rate Johnson's ceiling at Gov-2018 and his floor at Trump 2020.  Probably closer to Trump 2020, because Gov-2018 reflects on Scott Walker's popularity.

Waukesha: R+25
Ozaukee: R+15
Washington: R+40

He is under 50% and the last two polls had him losing 48/44% he's gone

[S019]

If OP kept his promise to leave the forum for a year, then this wouldn't have happened. Everyone blaming the memers should blame OP for not keeping his promise.

[Continential]

If OP kept his promise to leave the forum for a year, then this wouldn't have happened. Everyone blaming the memers should blame OP for not keeping his promise.

Why not blame both?

[MATTROSE94]

Probably worse than in 2016, but a little bit better in the Driftless area.