NH - Saint Anselm/John Bolton internal: Biden +8 over Trump

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

www.boltonsuperpac.com/presser_060421-1.php

May 7-10
1267 registered voters
MoE: 2.8%

Biden 51
Trump 43
Unsure 6

[Pericles]

That's the same as 2020 in NH though, so not great, but good enough I guess.

[SnowLabrador]

That's the same as 2020 in NH though, so not great, but good enough I guess.

While uniform swing rarely happens, this is quite worrying. Remember that polling underestimates Republicans when Trump is on the ballot.

[Person Man]

That's the same as 2020 in NH though, so not great, but good enough I guess.

While uniform swing rarely happens, this is quite worrying. Remember that polling underestimates Republicans when Trump is on the ballot.

Not here.

[wbrocks67]

That's the same as 2020 in NH though, so not great, but good enough I guess.

While uniform swing rarely happens, this is quite worrying. Remember that polling underestimates Republicans when Trump is on the ballot.

Not here.

Yep. Polls were actually pretty damn accurate in NH, and the final pollsof Saint Anselm and UNH both nailed it (they had Biden +8 both)

[pbrower2a]

Probably from an exploratory committee for a John Bolton campaign for the Presidency. Bolton may be a piece of work, but he did turn against Trump.

New Hampshire may be a small state, but

(1) it is close to the national average, and
(2) it has the early primary that can make or break a candidacy.

1. Crosstab: The drop in Trump’s base – his Strong Favorables – in New Hampshire.

Republican Voters
.Polls (date/year).............10/20 Poll 5/21 Poll  +/
Strong Favorable               72            47            -25
Somewhat Favorable          16           34           +18
Unfavorable                      12            16            +4
No Opinion                      - 2                        +2

2. Comparison: The drop in Trump’s base – National poll to New Hampshire poll –
Republican voters Strongly/Very Favorable to Trump

Republican Voters

 October March, May +/- % Drop
Nat’l Poll 77 58 -19 25%
New Hampshire Poll 72 47 -25 35%

(Comment: New Hampshire Republicans are more moderate than nationwide Republicans. Trump could lose the New Hampshire primary.)



3. Crosstab: How Trump’s Strong Favorables, Somewhat Favorables vote in the 2024 Primary
Republican Voters
Strong Favorable Somewhat Favorable Unfavorable
Vote Trump 80 37 3
Not Trump 20 63 97

Enough said.
11. 2020 General Election Ballot – How Undeclared (or Independents) Voted
 All Voters
Undeclared Voters
Trump 39
Biden 51
Other 10

12. Crosstab: Trump, Biden, Favorable/Unfavorable with Undeclared Voters
Undeclared (Independent) Voters
Biden Trump +/-
Favorable 51 36 -15
Unfavorable 47 62 -15

13. Undeclared Voters – Unfavorable to Trump
 Undeclared Voters
Undeclared Voters
Somewhat Unfavorable 6%
Strongly Unfavorable 56%
Total Unfavorable 62%




15. Crosstab: Trump Won the 2020 Election – All voters, Republican voters
 All Voters Republican Voters
Agree 28 57
Disagree 58 19
Unsure 14 24

Comment: Yuck!

[President Johnson]

They polled this but nothing for 2022? Lame.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

They polled this but nothing for 2022? Lame.

If Trump is losing by 8 then Hassan will win