Future of EU - 2030

[mileslunn]

With UK having left and previous expansion, wondering what people think EU will look like in terms of membership.  Will more countries withdraw?  Will more join?  And if so which ones.  In terms of integration, do you see EU taking on more responsibilities in next decade that currently are done by member states only or any kind of harmonization.  While it hasn't done this, do you see EU returning some responsibilities to member states.  Finally how about Euro, of current EU members who have not joined Euro yet, which ones do you see joining?  Do you see any leaving (even though none have yet?)

My thoughts are no one else will leave EU as Brexit was close and UK was always more skeptical of project than others.  For new members, my guess is Montenegro joins between 2025-2030 and maybe North Macedonia now that name issue is resolved.  Besides those two, I don't see anyone joining. 

As for greater integration, I suspect there will be lots of proposals put out but with a 27 membership and requirement of unanimity will probably mean few see light of day.  I could however on taxation see more harmonization.  With US pushing global corporate minimum tax, I could see EU adopting that but might get some pushback from Ireland and Hungary.

I don't see anything being returned back, although suspension of Scheghen agreement and re-imposition of temporary border controls seems to becoming more frequent, but doubt border controls re-imposed permanently.  At same time I don't see Croatia, Bulgaria, Romania, or Cyprus abolishing theirs before 2025 and with refugee crisis in 2015 and fear of another, probably want to maintain the first three as a check for those who get past first border undetected.  Cyprus won't happen until island unified which I don't see happening anytime soon.

On Euro, Croatia is only one I see likely to join Euro.  Poland will if PiS gets defeated while Hungary and Czech Republic could but so far no pro-Euro parties in contention of forming government, but with how fast things change, always possible some party not on radar emerges.  Denmark and Sweden I am quite confident remain outside of Eurozone.  Bulgaria and Romania likely fail to qualify as currently two poorest member states.

[beesley]

I don't think membership will drastically change and wouldn't be surprised if it remains exactly the same. I can think of one other country that might join as well as the two you mentioned, but discussion of that might derail the thread.

It's a simplistic answer but I think the issues of cooperation will be the ones that are simplest for the EU to make policy on - e.g. environment and climate change, digital policy. There will be calls for other projects, including a few calls for a European Army but that will be too contentious.

I don't think any countries will leave the Euro as the EU will persuade them otherwise if necessary. Croatia will probably join. With Brexit 'done' (not really) I think there is an opening for some of the smaller countries to make their demands, but the direction of travel re integration will continue. We already saw this with countries like Malta. Of course one of the big shakers will be the new Chancellor of Germany and they will shape policy. Most of the likely candidates support integration but many of them also support reforms in some areas.

Despite all of that, I think the EU of 2030 will be fairly recognisable.

[Pick Up the Phone]

With UK having left and previous expansion, wondering what people think EU will look like in terms of membership.  Will more countries withdraw?

No, why should they?

Will more join?

Sure.

And if so which ones.

The ones that have applied for membership and are currently negotiating it (with the obvious exception of Turkey): North Macedonia, Montenegro, Albania, Serbia. At least Montenegro should get there by 2030.

In terms of integration, do you see EU taking on more responsibilities in next decade that currently are done by member states only or any kind of harmonization.

Absolutely. If there has been one consistent development over the last 30 years, it is the EU taking on more and more responsibilities. Environmental protection/climate change, technology, and social security could be relevant policy areas.

While it hasn't done this, do you see EU returning some responsibilities to member states.

I don't see a good reason why anyone in Brussels would be willing to do this.

Finally how about Euro,

Will be fine.

of current EU members who have not joined Euro yet, which ones do you see joining?  

I would expect Croatia and Bulgaria to join. Would be surprised by any of the others.

Do you see any leaving (even though none have yet?)

If Greece didn't leave* in 2011-12 and 2014-15, chances are extremely low that any country will in the foreseeable future.

*Left = being forced to leave. As far as I know, a EU member state cannot unilaterally withdraw from the Eurozone. Expulsion is the only legal possibility.

[mileslunn]

I should add too if Northern Cyprus re-united with Cyprus or Northern Ireland joins Ireland they would automatically become part of EU although not a new member, sort of akin to East Germany becoming part due to re-unification.  And as for other, that would be Scotland I am assuming and yes whole other can of worms still if they do separate, I imagine they will apply to join, but whether they become a member or Spain vetoes who knows.  Never mind I still predict that Scotland in 2030 will be part of UK so unless UK re-joins (which I don't think it will, at least not for another generation) then Scotland will remain out too.

[Frodo]

I see no one is concerned about Marine LePen winning the French presidency in 2022, and taking France out of the EU.

As to new members, of the remaining former Yugoslav republics only Montenegro and Serbia have completed their initial screening, and have begun the process of joining the European Union.  All the other former Yugoslav republics mentioned here haven't even started yet.  So it logically follows that if any of them are joining the EU by 2030, those two are the most likely candidates.

[mileslunn]

I see no one is concerned about Marine LePen winning the French presidency in 2022, and taking France out of the EU.

As to new members, of the remaining former Yugoslav republics only Montenegro and Serbia have completed their initial screening, and have begun the process of joining the European Union.  All the other former Yugoslav republics mentioned here haven't even started yet.  So it logically follows that if any of them are joining the EU by 2030, those two are the most likely candidates.

Even if LePen wins, there would need to be a referendum to leave which I doubt passes and also would need National Assembly approval and unlikely FN wins that.  Thus France leaving seems very unlikely.  If that happened, EU would probably implode quickly as founding member and core one.

[Storr]

Montenegro, Albania, and North Macedonia should be members by 2030. The three are already NATO members. The biggest issue is Bulgaria blocking Macedonia's progress. I'm very skeptical about Serbia though, what is there to prevent it from becoming a worse Hungary or even Russia's bidder in the EU?

Moldova, Georgia, and Ukraine are decades away from joining the EU. Especially with the 2004 and 2007 expansions still having ramifications making many members weary of even the current Western Balkan expansion plans. Though, Moldova does have a possible quick way in by re-joining Romania (as it was pre-WWII).

Edit, the rest is a bit of a tangent, heh: I would not be opposed to that. "Moldovan" is simply Romanian in Cyrillic, after all. It feels a bit unfair for Moldova to still be held back by its own 1939-40 Soviet military annexation, while the Baltic states are not. Also Transnistria is a dumb geographic mess the Soviets intentionally created in order make Moldova less ethnically Romanian and thus more beholden to Moscow. Ukraine and Moldova should simply agree to the pre-WWII border, the Dniester River. The swap would revert to the natural border of the river and give Moldova the second largest Transnistrian city, Bender as well as some precious coastline, while Ukraine would receive the Transnistrian "capital" Tiraspol.

[Zinneke]

I think you'll see electorates of northern "New Hanseatic" countries get more and more fed up with having to share a political union with (just as the most recent relevant example) Hungary, and so you will see them basically form a union within a union, with the EU single market skeleton remaining, but the political union scaled back immensely and a potential revision of the Euro, as costly as it may be. Instead they would set up a parallel currency, pool army resources (although largely symbolic) and just be this sort of atharaxic block that free rides on the Southern and Eastern "buffer" from all those pesky real world issues like Russian imperlism, migration, etc. But then if the South and East do get let go, they can only blame themselves for electing horrible political classes.

The big question is the German one : does it de-solidarise itself from Southern and Eastern Europe to join this New Hanseatic League, or does it try to keep the children all together and the Euro going. 

Either way, constitutionally the EU is a broken system, and the pressures it is about to endure with the rise of China and Russia, and Climate Change affecting it, will put that system under strain. Right now what is saving it is actually national governments and parliaments being creative and coordinating legislation without going through the EU broken model, in what is know as the New Intergovermentalism.

[Farmlands]

I think you'll see electorates of northern "New Hanseatic" countries get more and more fed up with having to share a political union with (just as the most recent relevant example) Hungary, and so you will see them basically form a union within a union, with the EU single market skeleton remaining, but the political union scaled back immensely and a potential revision of the Euro, as costly as it may be. Instead they would set up a parallel currency, pool army resources (although largely symbolic) and just be this sort of atharaxic block that free rides on the Southern and Eastern "buffer" from all those pesky real world issues like Russian imperlism, migration, etc. But then if the South and East do get let go, they can only blame themselves for electing horrible political classes.

The big question is the German one : does it de-solidarise itself from Southern and Eastern Europe to join this New Hanseatic League, or does it try to keep the children all together and the Euro going. 

Either way, constitutionally the EU is a broken system, and the pressures it is about to endure with the rise of China and Russia, and Climate Change affecting it, will put that system under strain. Right now what is saving it is actually national governments and parliaments being creative and coordinating legislation without going through the EU broken model, in what is know as the New Intergovermentalism.

I think you're severely overstating how much the electorate of most EU nations prioritise Hungary. They definitely won't want their country to abandon the EU and form a new league over it. Especially Germany. More likely, even if I don't actually see it happening myself, that Hungary gets kicked out if Orban oversteps even further.

[CumbrianLefty]

Orban is probably still canny enough to stay just the right side of the line there, but you never know.

[Zinneke]

I think you'll see electorates of northern "New Hanseatic" countries get more and more fed up with having to share a political union with (just as the most recent relevant example) Hungary, and so you will see them basically form a union within a union, with the EU single market skeleton remaining, but the political union scaled back immensely and a potential revision of the Euro, as costly as it may be. Instead they would set up a parallel currency, pool army resources (although largely symbolic) and just be this sort of atharaxic block that free rides on the Southern and Eastern "buffer" from all those pesky real world issues like Russian imperlism, migration, etc. But then if the South and East do get let go, they can only blame themselves for electing horrible political classes.

The big question is the German one : does it de-solidarise itself from Southern and Eastern Europe to join this New Hanseatic League, or does it try to keep the children all together and the Euro going.  

Either way, constitutionally the EU is a broken system, and the pressures it is about to endure with the rise of China and Russia, and Climate Change affecting it, will put that system under strain. Right now what is saving it is actually national governments and parliaments being creative and coordinating legislation without going through the EU broken model, in what is know as the New Intergovermentalism.

I think you're severely overstating how much the electorate of most EU nations prioritise Hungary. They definitely won't want their country to abandon the EU and form a new league over it. Especially Germany. More likely, even if I don't actually see it happening myself, that Hungary gets kicked out if Orban oversteps even further.

Hungary is just a symbol, and an example that I used. A Draghi-less Italy, a Spain in political limbo, a France wanting to set the retirement age back to 60 and wanting crazy favoritism for their farmers purely on the basis of being French whingebags...all these things can provoke a general euroscepticism that makes the northern countries try to reap the benefits of the single market while ignoring any responsibilities. This is essentially what the UK tried when it voted for Brexit (with leading figures saying Single Market would remain in place) but the Brexit movement was hijacked by an insane fringe of the Tory party so it turned into a fiasco.

Far more calculcated ,realistic scenario? These northern countries don't leave per se, but they do defund the "European Union" structures massively and instead invest in their own harmonization. Union within a union, and "EU" as an organization becomes a lame duck.

[mileslunn]

EU rules prohibit expelling a member, but they can suspend a member which means they have to follow all EU rules during suspension and still pay dues but lose votes.  They could do this with Hungary, but real risk that might push Hungary to vote to leave outright thus why probably won't. 

[Zinneke]

EU rules prohibit expelling a member, but they can suspend a member which means they have to follow all EU rules during suspension and still pay dues but lose votes.  They could do this with Hungary, but real risk that might push Hungary to vote to leave outright thus why probably won't. 

Hungary and Poland have each other's backs.

[Frodo]

Montenegro, Albania, and North Macedonia should be members by 2030. The three are already NATO members. The biggest issue is Bulgaria blocking Macedonia's progress. I'm very skeptical about Serbia though, what is there to prevent it from becoming a worse Hungary or even Russia's bidder in the EU?

That is a very good question, and one I believe the EU has been grappling with.  Which is why they have revamped their enlargement methodology, beginning with Montenegro and Serbia, which are further along than anyone else so far:

Enlargement: new enlargement methodology will be applied to Montenegro and Serbia

[mileslunn]

Montenegro, Albania, and North Macedonia should be members by 2030. The three are already NATO members. The biggest issue is Bulgaria blocking Macedonia's progress. I'm very skeptical about Serbia though, what is there to prevent it from becoming a worse Hungary or even Russia's bidder in the EU?

That is a very good question, and one I believe the EU has been grappling with.  Which is why they have revamped their enlargement methodology, beginning with Montenegro and Serbia, which are further along than anyone else so far:

Enlargement: new enlargement methodology will be applied to Montenegro and Serbia

EU is in tough bind here.  Enlargement is problematic in sense many potential members are rather new democracies and have real risk of sliding back towards autocracy.  Never mind with wages much lower, many will move to countries with higher wages and while most are fine with free mobility of labour; not if it reaches levels where it radically alters ethno-cultural make up and the poorer the country is, the more internal migration you will get.  By same time I think there is strong desire to keep Eastern European countries out of Putin's orbit and joining EU does help on that front.  And I think there is general view no matter how problematic they may be joining, but to have them in EU than under Russian sphere of influence.  Serbia off course has a long history of close ties with Russia and that could be issue there.  Even in Montenegro, Russia tried to interfere in one of their elections when they wanted to join NATO.  Serbia is after all Slavic like Russia, predominately Orthodox Christian like Russia (Slovenia and Croatia are both predominately Catholic) and even uses Cyrillic writing unlike others in Balkans so historically and culturally closest to Russia.  So EU probably has strong strategic interest to bring them into their sphere to steer them away from allying with Russia.

[Samof94]

I don't think membership will drastically change and wouldn't be surprised if it remains exactly the same. I can think of one other country that might join as well as the two you mentioned, but discussion of that might derail the thread.

It's a simplistic answer but I think the issues of cooperation will be the ones that are simplest for the EU to make policy on - e.g. environment and climate change, digital policy. There will be calls for other projects, including a few calls for a European Army but that will be too contentious.

I don't think any countries will leave the Euro as the EU will persuade them otherwise if necessary. Croatia will probably join. With Brexit 'done' (not really) I think there is an opening for some of the smaller countries to make their demands, but the direction of travel re integration will continue. We already saw this with countries like Malta. Of course one of the big shakers will be the new Chancellor of Germany and they will shape policy. Most of the likely candidates support integration but many of them also support reforms in some areas.

Despite all of that, I think the EU of 2030 will be fairly recognisable.

Croatia is already a member

[beesley]

I don't think membership will drastically change and wouldn't be surprised if it remains exactly the same. I can think of one other country that might join as well as the two you mentioned, but discussion of that might derail the thread.

It's a simplistic answer but I think the issues of cooperation will be the ones that are simplest for the EU to make policy on - e.g. environment and climate change, digital policy. There will be calls for other projects, including a few calls for a European Army but that will be too contentious.

I don't think any countries will leave the Euro as the EU will persuade them otherwise if necessary. Croatia will probably join. With Brexit 'done' (not really) I think there is an opening for some of the smaller countries to make their demands, but the direction of travel re integration will continue. We already saw this with countries like Malta. Of course one of the big shakers will be the new Chancellor of Germany and they will shape policy. Most of the likely candidates support integration but many of them also support reforms in some areas.

Despite all of that, I think the EU of 2030 will be fairly recognisable.

Croatia is already a member

I meant that a member of the Eurozone, which it isn't.

[Former President tack50]

Why are people so pessimistic here? I am not mega optimistic either, but I think taht in 2030 the EU will still exist with the same members it does now(there's like a small chance of Montenegro accession by 2030 but it is very small) and the same disaster of a division of powers that exists now

[Samof94]

I don't think membership will drastically change and wouldn't be surprised if it remains exactly the same. I can think of one other country that might join as well as the two you mentioned, but discussion of that might derail the thread.

It's a simplistic answer but I think the issues of cooperation will be the ones that are simplest for the EU to make policy on - e.g. environment and climate change, digital policy. There will be calls for other projects, including a few calls for a European Army but that will be too contentious.

I don't think any countries will leave the Euro as the EU will persuade them otherwise if necessary. Croatia will probably join. With Brexit 'done' (not really) I think there is an opening for some of the smaller countries to make their demands, but the direction of travel re integration will continue. We already saw this with countries like Malta. Of course one of the big shakers will be the new Chancellor of Germany and they will shape policy. Most of the likely candidates support integration but many of them also support reforms in some areas.

Despite all of that, I think the EU of 2030 will be fairly recognisable.

Croatia is already a member

I meant that a member of the Eurozone, which it isn't.

That makes more sense.

[CumbrianLefty]

Why are people so pessimistic here? I am not mega optimistic either, but I think taht in 2030 the EU will still exist with the same members it does now(there's like a small chance of Montenegro accession by 2030 but it is very small) and the same disaster of a division of powers that exists now

Yes, the imminent collapse/unravelling of the EU and its predecessors has been consistently forecast for at least 50 years - and will probably be equally so for the next 50.

[SnowLabrador]

The EU isn't long for this world.

[CumbrianLefty]

The EU isn't long for this world.

Literally no actual evidence for this.

Nothing is forever, but it will outlive most if not all of us.