This one is going to come down to the national environment, but I will say that I’ve never met an R in MI (and I grew up there so I know many) who had anything but irrational hatred for Whitmer. Seriously, plenty of them voted for Obama (especially in 2008) and are even somewhat ok with the Carl Levins or Gary Peters of the world, but one thing every single R in MI seems to agree on is that Whitmer is the absolute worst thing to have ever happened in the history of the planet.
Now on the flip side she has done a great job of appealing to Dems in the state, and seems to have some Indy appeal as well. So I’d expect her to still win in a normal, neutral year. However, if 2022 ends up being even a minor R wave, I’d be surprised if she held on.
I agree with almost everything. I actually now have the GOP as a very slight favorite to win after thinking Whitmer was the very slight favorite to win for months. It's a pure toss-up though and will probably be this way until November 8, 2022 unless something major happens.
