MI - Competitive Edge Research & Communication/MI GOP (R): Whitmer +5 > James, Craig +7 > Whitmer

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

https://www.deadlinedetroit.com/articles/28160/leduff_gop_poll_shows_james_craig_leading_whitmer_in_michigan_governor_s_race

May 26-June 4
809 likely voters
MoE: 4%

Whitmer 50
John James 45

James Craig 45
Whitmer 38

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Whitmer is Done

[President Johnson]

Whitmer is Done

Wut? Don't tell me you believe this Republican junk pollster that finds her down nine against "generic Republican".

[MATTROSE94]

Whitmer is Done

Wut? Don't tell me you believe this Republican junk pollster that finds her down nine against "generic Republican".

Lee Chaitfield probably defeats Gretchen Whitmer 50-49 or 51-47 if I had to guess. Even though Gretchen Whitmers COVID policies perhaps saved the lives of 20,000 people in her state, she is not that popular and is a major target of the MAGA movement and right wing news organizations such as Fox News, EWTN, OANN, Newsmax, and the New York Post.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Whitmer is Done

Wut? Don't tell me you believe this Republican junk pollster that finds her down nine against "generic Republican".

She isn't done but but she is in a similar position as Hassan who.os down by six to Sununu

[The Undefeatable Debbie Stabenow]

Whitmer is Done

Wut? Don't tell me you believe this Republican junk pollster that finds her down nine against "generic Republican".

Lee Chaitfield probably defeats Gretchen Whitmer 50-49 or 51-47 if I had to guess. Even though Gretchen Whitmers COVID policies perhaps saved the lives of 20,000 people in her state, she is not that popular and is a major target of the MAGA movement and right wing news organizations such as Fox News, EWTN, OANN, Newsmax, and the New York Post.

The MI GOP would be much better off with Craig. Chatfield is a moron.

[sting in the rafters]

Keep in mind this is an internal, though this is concerning. Any poll in the the Rust Belt swing states that shows the D under 48% (the portion of the electorate in those states that in a neutral partisan environment will reliably fill in a bubble, pull the lever, punch the card for any Democrat not named Hillary Clinton in a statewide race), let alone trailing an R should race alarms.


A lack of crosstabs is a bit frustrating. Does Whitmer's drop off come from indies vs. Craig? Disaffected Ds who wouldn't show up? Does Craig garner substantial crossover support? Hard to tell with an internal like this.

[MT Treasurer]

Between this and the VA/NH polls, this was probably best polling week for the GOP under President Biden so far. Still not worth much (especially since these are R-leaning polls and we all know how reliable polling in general has become), but at least somewhat encouraging for the Republicans' morale.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

A blue wave as of now isn't happening winning IA, OH, NC and FL, right now the D's are gonna have trouble in MI and PA, PA doesn't have 1 D running and even if SHAPIRO rubs, he's not unbeatable

[Person Man]

The fact that there is a 12 point spread makes this dubious.

[Progressive Pessimist]

I would love to say that this doesn't actually look too bad for Whitmer, but I am still wary of polls in general now, and especially in the big three states of Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.

[GALeftist]

Whitmer may lose, but I'm sorry, there is no way in hell that there is that wide of a difference between James and other Republicans.

J U N K I T

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Of course Whitmer is gonna lose, just because MI voted D in Prez Election doesn't mean it's always vote the same wau, this state voted for Synder

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Whitmer is on the Endangered species list like Hassan both are six pts down

[Chips]

Between this and the VA/NH polls, this was probably best polling week for the GOP under President Biden so far. Still not worth much (especially since these are R-leaning polls and we all know how reliable polling in general has become), but at least somewhat encouraging for the Republicans' morale.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Between this and the VA/NH polls, this was probably best polling week for the GOP under President Biden so far. Still not worth much (especially since these are R-leaning polls and we all know how reliable polling in general has become), but at least somewhat encouraging for the Republicans' morale.

D's have more targets than Rs in OH, FL, SC and AZ, we can afford to lose MI in a midterm but not in a Prez race

Rs are down by six pts in AZ Gov
And the Election is 500 days from now
OR Gov can flip R too, but Whitmer is gone

[LAKISYLVANIA]

Whitmer is Done

Wut? Don't tell me you believe this Republican junk pollster that finds her down nine against "generic Republican".

Don't take olawakandi serious. It's quite obvious all his takes are SirWoodbury-tier level (or even worse), yet he has a cult status on this forum.

[Continential]

Whitmer is Done

Wut? Don't tell me you believe this Republican junk pollster that finds her down nine against "generic Republican".

Don't take olawakandi serious. It's quite obvious all his takes are SirWoodbury-tier level (or even worse), yet he has a cult status on this forum.

He has "cult" status because he is right and he isn't a troll/bot. He understands the American voter far more than most people on this forum, even though some of his electoral predictions may be wrong.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

Whitmer is Done

Wut? Don't tell me you believe this Republican junk pollster that finds her down nine against "generic Republican".

Don't take olawakandi serious. It's quite obvious all his takes are SirWoodbury-tier level (or even worse), yet he has a cult status on this forum.

He has "cult" status because he is right and he isn't a troll/bot. He understands the American voter far more than most people on this forum, even though some of his electoral predictions may be wrong.

I don't agree, i'm sorry, and i think few people even are able to understand the American voters, given we continue to be surprised to what America is capable off in terms of the political process.

[Continential]

Whitmer is Done

Wut? Don't tell me you believe this Republican junk pollster that finds her down nine against "generic Republican".

Don't take olawakandi serious. It's quite obvious all his takes are SirWoodbury-tier level (or even worse), yet he has a cult status on this forum.

He has "cult" status because he is right and he isn't a troll/bot. He understands the American voter far more than most people on this forum, even though some of his electoral predictions may be wrong.

I don't agree, i'm sorry, and i think few people even are able to understand the American voters, given we continue to be surprised to what America is capable off in terms of the political process.

He understands that the American voter wants America to reopen and he [/pre]]predicted Trump's "space in the GOP primary" 4 years before Trump ran, and he is the closest person Atlas has to a black urban working-class person with him being somewhat anti-immigration and anti-crime even with his hackish takes.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

Whitmer is Done

Wut? Don't tell me you believe this Republican junk pollster that finds her down nine against "generic Republican".

Don't take olawakandi serious. It's quite obvious all his takes are SirWoodbury-tier level (or even worse), yet he has a cult status on this forum.

He has "cult" status because he is right and he isn't a troll/bot. He understands the American voter far more than most people on this forum, even though some of his electoral predictions may be wrong.

I don't agree, i'm sorry, and i think few people even are able to understand the American voters, given we continue to be surprised to what America is capable off in terms of the political process.

He understands that the American voter wants America to reopen and he [/pre]]predicted Trump's "space in the GOP primary" 4 years before Trump ran, and he is the closest person Atlas has to a black urban working-class person with him being somewhat anti-immigration and anti-crime even with his hackish takes.

Okay, thank you for your clarification.

I never said we don't need Olawakandi. But i think he is too quick to deem certain elections as safe because of incumbency advantage in senate (and very liked candidate) and vice versa (in this case Whitmer). But sure, he'll have some good takes as well. I have some good takes and some worser takes too, and no i've no experience in the US itself and people around me since i'm Belgian, but i know pretty well how people think, and there are analogues in other countries as well.

[Chips]

NEW POLL: Whitmer 45, Craig 44.

It's blocked by a paywall though so I thought I'd place it here.


RCP Michigan average overstated Biden by 1.4%. If this bias is true here, It suggests Craig is leading but that it's extremely close. Sounds like so far we're dealing with a very tight race folks.

Also, apparently more than half don't even recognize Craig. This doesn't mean anything more than a year out. But I'd definitely not take this poll lightly if I were Whitmer.

[UncleSam]

This one is going to come down to the national environment, but I will say that I’ve never met an R in MI (and I grew up there so I know many) who had anything but irrational hatred for Whitmer. Seriously, plenty of them voted for Obama (especially in 2008) and are even somewhat ok with the Carl Levins or Gary Peters of the world, but one thing every single R in MI seems to agree on is that Whitmer is the absolute worst thing to have ever happened in the history of the planet.

Now on the flip side she has done a great job of appealing to Dems in the state, and seems to have some Indy appeal as well. So I’d expect her to still win in a normal, neutral year. However, if 2022 ends up being even a minor R wave, I’d be surprised if she held on.

[Chips]

This one is going to come down to the national environment, but I will say that I’ve never met an R in MI (and I grew up there so I know many) who had anything but irrational hatred for Whitmer. Seriously, plenty of them voted for Obama (especially in 2008) and are even somewhat ok with the Carl Levins or Gary Peters of the world, but one thing every single R in MI seems to agree on is that Whitmer is the absolute worst thing to have ever happened in the history of the planet.

Now on the flip side she has done a great job of appealing to Dems in the state, and seems to have some Indy appeal as well. So I’d expect her to still win in a normal, neutral year. However, if 2022 ends up being even a minor R wave, I’d be surprised if she held on.

I agree with almost everything. I actually now have the GOP as a very slight favorite to win after thinking Whitmer was the very slight favorite to win for months. It's a pure toss-up though and will probably be this way until November 8, 2022 unless something major happens.

[SnowLabrador]

It's not looking good for Whitmer right now. If she's up by 1 in that poll, she's probably down by 3-5 in actuality.