Nigeria 2006 Population Census

[Tender Branson]

The last Nigeria Population Census was done in 1991, it was incomplete and disputed and showed about 89 Mio. Nigerians. We know that Nigeria is growing at a very fast rate, so what do you think will be the 2006 figure when they are released in October ?

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

The UN estimate for 2005 is 131 million which assuming that the 1991 census was accurate means that the Nigeria has averaged a little less than 3% annual growth over the period.

[minionofmidas]

If experience is anything to go by, UN estimates tend to be too high rather than too low.

[Cubby]

Option 3 (120-130 Million)

Nigeria and Lebanon are 2 places where the census results are politically sensitive, so it'll be a big deal when the numbers arrive. I wonder if they will count by religion, something that the UK and Canada do, but the USA doesn't.

[phk]

Why is this in US General?

[minionofmidas]

Why is this in US General?

It isn't, it's in Geography/Demographics.

[opebo]

The Nigerians are fortunate to have - so far - avoided the disasterous declining birthrates found in most of the world. 

[MaC]

From what I've heard in African Politics class, 130 million-so I'll go with that.

[Tender Branson]

I wonder if they will count by religion, something that the UK and Canada do, but the USA doesn't.

Nope, they didn´t enumerate religion. It´s too sensitive. Could lead to violence among tribes and Muslim and Christian groups in next years elections and they would fight for oil revenues if they would know the numbers.

[Tender Branson]

...when they are released in October ?

Delayed to December...

[WMS]

...when they are released in October ?

Delayed to December...

Oh, that can't be good news. Some faction is about to get shafted then...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Ooooh sh*t...

[WMS]

Ooooh sh*t...

And let's remember that this is Nigeria, where they will begin insurgencies over gerrymandered election districts. I kind of have to admire their dedication to fair districts...

[Tender Branson]

In the meantime some other recent Census numbers:

Iraq (1997): 22.046.244 (+3,0% annual growth since last census)

Ireland (2006): 4.234.925 (+2,0%)

India (2001): 1.028.610.328 (+2,0%)

South Africa (2001): 44.819.778 (+2,0%)

Turkey (2000): 67.803.927 (+1,9%)

Brazil (2000): 169.799.170 (+1,6%)

USA (2000): 281.421.906 (+1,2%)

Australia (2001): 18.972.350 (+1,2%)

Thailand (2000): 60.916.441 (+1,1%)

China (2000): 1.265.830.000 (+1,1%)

Mexico (2005): 103.263.388 (+1,0%)

Canada (2001): 30.007.094 (+0,8%)

Switzerland (2000): 7.288.010 (+0,6%)

Portugal (2001): 10.356.117 (+0,5%)

Spain (2001): 40.847.371 (+0,5%)

France (1999): 58.518.395 (+0,4%)

UK (2001): 58.789.194 (+0,4%)

Austria (2001): 8.032.857 (+0,3%)

Japan (2005): 127.756.815 (+0,1%)

Italy (2001): 56.995.744 (+0,03%)

Russia (2002): 145.166.731 (-0,1%)

[Tender Branson]

Yehaaa, finally the preliminary results of the 2006 Nigeria Population Census have been released today after some delays


There are 140.003.542 Nigerians, indicating an annual 3.2% population growth over the last Census in 1991.

"Nigeria announced an overall population figure of 140 million on Friday but stopped short of publishing a breakdown by region that could have disrupted preparations for next April's landmark elections."

http://www.alertnet.org/thenews/newsdesk/L29819278.htm

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

The UN estimate for 2005 is 131 million which assuming that the 1991 census was accurate means that the Nigeria has averaged a little less than 3% annual growth over the period.

If experience is anything to go by, UN estimates tend to be too high rather than too low.

Yehaaa, finally the preliminary results of the 2006 Nigeria Population Census have been released today after some delays


There are 140.003.542 Nigerians, indicating an annual 3.2% population growth over the last Census in 1991.

"Nigeria announced an overall population figure of 140 million on Friday but stopped short of publishing a breakdown by region that could have disrupted preparations for next April's landmark elections."

http://www.alertnet.org/thenews/newsdesk/L29819278.htm

Either there's been massive census fraud or the UN and experience don't mix.

[Tender Branson]

The UN estimate for 2005 is 131 million which assuming that the 1991 census was accurate means that the Nigeria has averaged a little less than 3% annual growth over the period.

If experience is anything to go by, UN estimates tend to be too high rather than too low.

Yehaaa, finally the preliminary results of the 2006 Nigeria Population Census have been released today after some delays


There are 140.003.542 Nigerians, indicating an annual 3.2% population growth over the last Census in 1991.

"Nigeria announced an overall population figure of 140 million on Friday but stopped short of publishing a breakdown by region that could have disrupted preparations for next April's landmark elections."

http://www.alertnet.org/thenews/newsdesk/L29819278.htm

Either there's been massive census fraud or the UN and experience don't mix.

The 2006 Census was by far the most "clean" one so far, Nigerian Census officials said. The previous censuses that were held were somehow all incomplete. But I doubt that even in this 2006 figure all people are really counted. A growth rate of 3,2% is not surprising though, because other neighboring coast countries like Benin, Ghana, Ivory Coast, Cameroun are all experiencing over 3% growth too.

[WMS]

No breakdown by region, eh? Are the Ijaws going to get screwed over again?

[Tender Branson]

No breakdown by region, eh? Are the Ijaws going to get screwed over again?

On 21 April this year there will be elections in Nigeria. Therefore breakdowns by regions, income, age, etc. will be released afterwards to avoid unrest

[WMS]

No breakdown by region, eh? Are the Ijaws going to get screwed over again?

On 21 April this year there will be elections in Nigeria. Therefore breakdowns by regions, income, age, etc. will be released afterwards to avoid unrest

Or in other words, the answer is almost certainly Yes.

[Tender Branson]

No breakdown by region, eh?

Hmm, it seems they released the figures before the elections:

The figures are:

* Most populous region: Kano with 9,4 Mio.

* Lagos' population stands at 9 Mio.

* Least populated region: Federal Capital Territory with 1,4 Mio.

* Total Population: 140 Mio.

* Females: 68,3 Mio.

* Males: 71,7 Mio.

http://www.tribune.com.ng/10012007/news/news1.html

[Tender Branson]

In the meantime some other recent Census numbers:

Sudan's 2008 Census results were released yesterday:

39.154.490

The fifth Sudan Population and Housing Census was conducted from April 22 - 30, 2008. It was the first all-inclusive census for people of southern Sudan since the country’s independence in January 1956.

http://www.sol-sd.com/news/117/ARTICLE/3431/2009-04-27.html