Terry McAuliffe would have been a much stronger candidate than Hillary Clinton and would not have ignored Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan. Additionally, his status as a moderate Southern governor would have helped in North Carolina, Florida, Georgia, and Arizona.
Here is what the map would have likely looked like:
Governor Terry McAuliffe (D-VA)/Transportation Secretary Anthony Foxx (D-NC): 328 EVs (49%)Businessman Donald Trump (R-NY)/Governor Mike Pence (R-IN): 200 EVs (42%)Mr. Evan McMullin (I-UT)/Businesswoman Mindy Finn (I-TX): 10 EVs (6%)Former Fovernor Gary Johnson (L-NM)/Former Governor William Weld (L-MA): 0 EVs (3%)Others: 0 EVs (2%)The Democrats also retake the Senate narrowly by winning Wisconsin (Russ Feingold), Pennsylvania (Katie McGinty), and Missouri (Jason Kander) in addition to their wins in New Hampshire and Illinois. The House of Representatives, on the other hand, likely stays Republican at around a 235-208 margin. 2018 is probably still rough for the Democrats in the Senate however, with Ohio, Montana, West Virginia, and New Jersey flipping in addition to the Republicans RL Senate gains that year.
Overall, Terry McAuliffe probably has a pretty solid first term and gets re-elected over Mike Pence or Paul Ryan in 2020. Also, I do not think COVID would have occurred, as I think that Donald Trump disbanding the pandemic task force in 2018 and removing CDC staff from China in 2019 were the main reasons why COVID began.
