Jack Ciattarelli will win the primary easily, but I have him losing 51-47 against Phil Murphy in the general election. Had Phil Murphy not reopened New Jersey when he did, then Jack Ciattarelli would have defeated him for reelection.
Murphy is definitely going to win more than 51% of the vote in November. Probably around the same as he did in 2017 (57-58%).
Yeah, as wbrocks7 said, the lock-downs probably aren't all that relevant anymore, especially when Murphy can claim some credit for our state's excellent vaccine rollout that is helping to reopen the state. I'm sure that Ciatarelli will still run against him on that though. He listed "reopening businesses and schools" among his priorities in the incessant mailers I got from him even though those things are already happening under Murphy. I also don't think Trump's surprising gain in urban areas will translate to Ciatarelli. Just look at how they still supported Booker by more than they did Biden. I think Murphy's performance will resemble Booker's result more than Biden's. New Jersey Republicans, uncomfortable with the reactionary turn of the national GOP, tend to still vote GOP down-ballot for statewide and local elections, as 2019 showed us. Though that's also probably due largely to how paltry our voter turnout is every off-year election.
So with that noted, Ciatarelli's best bet is probably running on property taxes again like Guadagno did and over-performed with. That's the number one issue for New Jersey Republicans, perpetually, and an issue that can transcend the anti-Trump, anti-national Republican attitudes that are developing by suburban voters who once were loyal to the party in every type of election, like those that are plentiful here.
When it's all said and done, the trend of New Jersey always voting the opposite of the President's Party for Governor, like in Virginia, is likely over. I expect Murphy to win with 52% as his absolute lowest floor and with a margin between 12 points at the lowest and 16 points at most. As little as I expect this race to directly resemble the 2020 presidential election, I am still firmly convinced that no Democrat, barring an outlier like in 2012, will do better than the 16% ceiling.
It looks like Ciatarelli will be just shy of cracking 50% which isn't surprising... I'd say a perfect microcosm of the NJ Republican party at this point. 50% are still "moderate" per say, while the nearly 50% that voted for Rizzo/Singh are the Trumpy base.
That's still kind of a damning indictment of our state's Republicans. I mean, "moderate" Jack Ciatarelli still ran against Singh by isolating a Facebook post he made where he called the police killing of Eric Garner "police terror." Yeah, he took one of the most objective cases of police overreaction and is using it as a prop to run to Singh's right with. With the way Ciatarelli ran against Singh, it makes me wonder if Singh is a phony when it comes to his Trumpian persona. Those Facebook posts that Ciatarelli's campaign kept bringing up from years ago were all very reasonable.
By the way, it's hilarious that Singh came in third. I never thought he would win, but I vastly overestimated him nonetheless. Ciatarelli probably did too.
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