She'll draw a liberal challenger who generates a lot of online buzz and raises a considerable amount of money, but Sinema still wins the primary by >40pts in the end.
She then goes on to lose the GE when Ron DeSantis defeats Kamala Harris in the first popular vote majority for the GOP since 2004 (AZ goes for DeSantis by >5pts)
I don't think DeSantis would win Arizona by that margin. The state will probably be within 2% either way. Moreover, I think Sinema, like Kelly in 2020, will probably outperform Biden or Harris, and it may be enough for her to win reelection. I do agree with you that she's favored to win the primary, at least this far out.
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