POLL: Sinema's fate in 2024

[MargieCat]

What do you think happens to Sinema?

I could see her getting primaried by Gallego.

I could also see her losing to the right republican.

Does she redeem herself by abandoning her pro-filibuster position and fall in line with the other democrats?

Maybe she wants a lobbying job or to work in the private sector?

[NewYorkExpress]

I think Mark Kelly's fate this cycle will have a lot to do with Simena's fate in 2024.

I don't think any Democrat will actually primary her, barring a situation where she'd likely lose a general anyways, and I think the Republican bench is weak enough in Arizona, that if Simena runs for reelection, and wins in the Primary, she probably wins reelection.

[MargieCat]

I think Mark Kelly's fate this cycle will have a lot to do with Simena's fate in 2024.

I don't think any Democrat will actually primary her, barring a situation where she'd likely lose a general anyways, and I think the Republican bench is weak enough in Arizona, that if Simena runs for reelection, and wins in the Primary, she probably wins reelection.

If Trump and Kelli Ward didn't have their heads up their arses, they would push both Ducey and Brnovich to run for both senate seats.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

In a 52/48 Senate Manchin and Tester are clearly the most Vulnerable D's, the Covid probably would probably be gone by 2024 improving Brown and Sinema chances and Scott is vulnerable in FL without Rubio

DeSantis will win 5/10 pts because he is running with Rubio

Should Ds lose the H during Midterms, without HR 1, they can win it back in 2024 if Covid is gone, which it probably will be

[Sir Mohamed]

Definitely will get a more liberal challenger, whom I likely will support. That said, I expect her to win the nomination by an underwhelming margin before winning a narrow reelection. Voted Option #1.

[Alben Barkley]

If Mark Kelly loses next year, the appetite to primary Sinema will mostly be gone I think. Even if he wins but it's close, she will have a persuasive case for why the party needs to keep her to hold the seat. I also just don't know if the votes are there to primary her regardless; sure, lots of online progressives dislike her and loudly call for her to be primaried, but they don't exactly have the best track record of their preferred candidates actually winning outside of a few deep blue House districts. It's also possible that Sinema will pivot just enough to the left to satisfy most AZ Democrats and ward off any potential primary challenge, or that she and the party manage to persuade any serious challengers to stay back.

Still, I almost think she's in more danger of losing the primary than she is of losing the general. I think she very well could be the Democratic Susan Collins of the West. Even if the GOP wins the state in the presidential race, I could see her holding the seat by a relatively comfortable margin. And if the Democrats win the state, especially if it's a good year for Democrats in general, she could win by a blowout margin. She probably will have a lot of crossover appeal that will ensure she will run significantly ahead of the Democratic presidential ticket no matter what.

[MT Treasurer]

It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to realize that she’s in a better position for reelection than Mark Kelly and that she’ll outperform Biden/Harris by a few points. Lean D (the primary is obviously safe Sinema).

[Alben Barkley]

It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to realize that she’s in a better position for reelection than Mark Kelly and that she’ll outperform Biden/Harris by a few points. Lean D (the primary is obviously safe Sinema).

Why would a centrist senator who has nearly 40% approval among Republicans in her state but lukewarm ratings among her own party (that nearly censured her) be safer in the general than the primary? As I see it, if she clears the primary she’s almost guaranteed to win the general. If only because the AZ Republicans are a bunch of clowns.

[Xing]

She’ll win the primary (since many Democrats are cowards, or like lazy “compromise” logic) and be favored but not certain to win the general.

[Schiff for Senate]

I'm pretty sure Sinema will win the Democratic primary, even if she faces a challenger.

  The general election, however, is a different matter. It hinges on a.) The mood in general towards Democrats and Biden's approval rating in Arizona, and b.) who controls the Senate.

 If this proves to be a crucial election in that it may be the key to Democrats controlling the Senate, then I expect there will be enough turnout among Democrats to keep Sinema in office, or to help her either way. On the other hand, she isn't an exciting progressive who boosts turnout, so if the Senate is decidedly Republican or decidedly Democratic, it will likely remove any incentive for progressive Democrats who dislike Sinema to vote for her. In this scenario, they would stay home and Sinema would lose reelection.

  The two factors, Biden's popularity in Arizona and the Senate control, are currently unclear and could shift either way, which is why I think it's best to withhold any prediction. After 2022, when we see what happens to Senate control, a more accurate prediction may be made. If the Senate stays like this, with a 50-50 tie, I think that helps Sinema by incentivizing reluctant progressives to support her (a centrist Democrat being better than a Republican Senate), whereas if it is not a tie (and Biden isn't that popular), Sinema's prospects are bleaker.

 I do predict Sinema will win the primary, but the general election is unclear thus far. If the election were held today, I'd say it's either a tossup or tilts Democratic, perhaps - progressives may have their problems with Sinema, but she's better than Senator Gosar or Senator Ducey, either way. Sinema still has time to make the general election lean blue. I think the secret is to become slightly more Democratic on issues like the minimum wage, but be centrist/centre-right on immigration and gun rights, which may be enough to win over moderate voters to whom these issues are important. If the election were held today (and it's important to note that it isn't) the race might tilt or even lean Democratic (although this could change to the benefit of the GOP, obviously, especially if Democrats gain more seat in 2022), since Biden's pretty popular so far, even in Arizona, and this race would determine Senate control. So, for now, if I had to make a guess, I'd say Sinema wins reelection - but that could very well change depending on the 2022 midterms, Kelly's own fate (liberals and progressives may realize then that Sinema is their best hope), and Biden's popularity come 2024.

[Blair]

I wouldn't mind betting on Reuben Gallego launching a primary if things really sour & the House majority looks like a decades long wait for the democrats.

He also passed up in favour of Kelly in 2020 & it's a lot easier for the big democratic organisations & powerplays to support a popular & respected sitting congressman compared to some random DSA activist or state rep.

[SnowLabrador]

She loses the general election due to increased voter suppression that she refuses to help stop.

[CookieDamage]

I currently think she'll win re-election, but if someone like Gallego challenges her I'd think he wins both the primary and the general.

[Progressive Pessimist]

I think she'll be renominated and re-elected just by virtue of trends in the state and how awful most potential Arizona GOP nominees are, and it will send a bad message about what blocking progress means for one's political prospects in the Senate, even if that correlation isn't necessarily the causation that led to her re-election.

This assumes that her and Manchin's inaction on ending the filibuster doesn't result in major Republican controlled battleground states passing legislation that allows them to overturn election results. That would be one hell of a backfire and "I told you so" moment for her and Manchin. I get their concern that the lack of a filibuster can lead to a future Republican majority abusing its absence to pass reactionary bills, but but while Democrats have a trifecta acting on addressing our democratic backslide proactively is necessary to balance out what the GOP can and will do in the near future. Our democracy is at the precipice of collapse, and legislation like HR1 passing and statehood for DC and Puerto Rico can go a long way in making a future GOP Senate takeover less of a scary prospect.

Sorry I couldn't help but go off. Manchin or Sinema being mentioned in any thread now yields a Pavlovian response from me to go on a tirade about the filibuster.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I presently do not see her being primaried, though I concede it is certainly possible.
She is a bit like a Democratic McCain. In many ways.

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

She’s not going to win a primary. Incumbents are hard to primary because even the most conservative in incumbent typically has close working relationships with state level politicians that they don’t want to throw away. Kyrsten Sinema makes a point of scorning the AZ Democratic Party, she won’t even endorse, much less help, in Arizona races, she won’t even return calls from liberal political groups in AZ (the chief of the Tucson AFL-CIO says she’s got Kelly on speed dial and can’t even reach Sinema’s office, staffers speaking on background say that Sinema doesn’t see Democrats as her voters), and she even does fundraisers for dark money GOP groups. Why the hell would they lift a finger to help her?

On the national level, she only ever seems to be interested in working with Republicans. Just a quick googling shows plenty of jointly presented bills and pressers with Romney and Cornyn and so on, but basically nothing with other Dems, even Manchin, and again, she does fundraisers for dark money groups that are trying to get them defeated, and she seems to revel in making them look like idiots. I can’t imagine they are going to spend a dime that could go to Baldwin, Brown, Tester, or even freaking Joe Manchin to save a power drunk girl boss ditz that keeps knifing them every time they turn around. Meanwhile, publicly making herself the face of conservadem wankery has ensured her primary opponent will be the beneficiary of the sort of online money bombs Dems running against particularly odious Republicans get and she’ll probably have allot of trouble duping low-info college kids into volunteering for her because she’s a youngish bi girl now that her conservatism is common knowledge.

TL;dr: Krysten Sinema is the Tulsi Gabbard of Joe Liebermans and the only question I have is whether she exits gracefully or runs a suicide Indy campaign out of spite


PS, Joe Manchin’s announcement today absolutely sunk any chance she had to salvage her career. Even if she still would be hated by her colleagues, an HR1 face turn would probably have solved any primary issues. Silver linings I guess

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

I think she'll be renominated and re-elected just by virtue of trends in the state and how awful most potential Arizona GOP nominees are, and it will send a bad message about what blocking progress means for one's political prospects in the Senate, even if that correlation isn't necessarily the causation that led to her re-election.

This assumes that her and Manchin's inaction on ending the filibuster doesn't result in major Republican controlled battleground states passing legislation that allows them to overturn election results. That would be one hell of a backfire and "I told you so" moment for her and Manchin. I get their concern that the lack of a filibuster can lead to a future Republican majority abusing its absence to pass reactionary bills, but but while Democrats have a trifecta acting on addressing our democratic backslide proactively is necessary to balance out what the GOP can and will do in the near future. Our democracy is at the precipice of collapse, and legislation like HR1 passing and statehood for DC and Puerto Rico can go a long way in making a future GOP Senate takeover less of a scary prospect.

Sorry I couldn't help but go off. Manchin or Sinema being mentioned in any thread now yields a Pavlovian response from me to go on a tirade about the filibuster.

She hovers between 50-55% in Dem approval. Which while positive is strait up awful for a same-party incumbent. Kelly sits about 80% for reference.
Once she has an actual Democrat to be contrasted to and we get regular showings of her curtesy middle finger to her voters and her joint press junkets with far right Republicans in Arizona tv, I doubt she’ll be above water.
I concede the national party could save her by trying to Bigfoot out any serious challenger, but why bother protecting the least cooperative member of the caucus whose made it clear she wouldn’t piss on another Dem if they were on fire.

[MarkD]

I predict that Sinema loses the primary to someone more liberal, probably another woman. She won't be "blanched," but will lose only by a narrow margin of no more than 5 points.

[Chips]

I think she'll win the primary but it'll be a toss-up in the general I think.

[Del Tachi]

She'll draw a liberal challenger who generates a lot of online buzz and raises a considerable amount of money, but Sinema still wins the primary by >40pts in the end.

She then goes on to lose the GE when Ron DeSantis defeats Kamala Harris in the first popular vote majority for the GOP since 2004 (AZ goes for DeSantis by >5pts)

[The Undefeatable Debbie Stabenow]

I predict that Sinema loses the primary to someone more liberal, probably another woman. She won't be "blanched," but will lose only by a narrow margin of no more than 5 points.

Funnily, I was going to compare her to Blanche Lincoln in that I can imagine her having a very competitive primary that she wins but only narrowly.

[Holmes]

She'll draw a liberal challenger who generates a lot of online buzz and raises a considerable amount of money, but Sinema still wins the primary by >40pts in the end.

She then goes on to lose the GE when Ron DeSantis defeats Kamala Harris in the first popular vote majority for the GOP since 2004 (AZ goes for DeSantis by >5pts)

This isn't a fan fiction site.

[Del Tachi]

She'll draw a liberal challenger who generates a lot of online buzz and raises a considerable amount of money, but Sinema still wins the primary by >40pts in the end.

She then goes on to lose the GE when Ron DeSantis defeats Kamala Harris in the first popular vote majority for the GOP since 2004 (AZ goes for DeSantis by >5pts)

This isn't a fan fiction site.

Why is Sinema some electoral juggernaut when she only won by 55k votes in about the most pro-Democrat midterm environment you could ask for?

In a scenario where Republicans win 2024 handily (which is well within the realm of possibility) she stands little sense of surviving. 

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

She'll draw a liberal challenger who generates a lot of online buzz and raises a considerable amount of money, but Sinema still wins the primary by >40pts in the end.

She then goes on to lose the GE when Ron DeSantis defeats Kamala Harris in the first popular vote majority for the GOP since 2004 (AZ goes for DeSantis by >5pts)

This isn't a fan fiction site.

Why is Sinema some electoral juggernaut when she only won by 55k votes in about the most pro-Democrat midterm environment you could ask for?

In a scenario where Republicans win 2024 handily (which is well within the realm of possibility) she stands little sense of surviving.  

We have the SEN MAP TO WIN ROSEN, KLOBUCHAR, BALDWIN, STABENOW, CASEY, KAINE, BROWN AND TESTER WILL WIN despite what happen in OH in 2022 and Rick Scott only won by .5 in 2018


ALL OF THEM WON LANDSLIDES IN 2018
Prez turnout hots 60% in Prez ELECTION

[DaleCooper]

She'll draw a liberal challenger who generates a lot of online buzz and raises a considerable amount of money, but Sinema still wins the primary by >40pts in the end.

She then goes on to lose the GE when Ron DeSantis defeats Kamala Harris in the first popular vote majority for the GOP since 2004 (AZ goes for DeSantis by >5pts)

This isn't a fan fiction site.

Why is Sinema some electoral juggernaut when she only won by 55k votes in about the most pro-Democrat midterm environment you could ask for?

In a scenario where Republicans win 2024 handily (which is well within the realm of possibility) she stands little sense of surviving. 

I don't think it's that unreasonable to think that she'd win even if DeSantis wins Arizona by 5. I think she has much better chance of winning in that situation than Tester or Brown do even on a good night for Democrats.