Why did Will County, IL trend R?

[Woody]

?

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

I'm not sure "trend" is the right word for Will County.

2016 - Trump: 43.6% - Clinton: 49.9%
2020 - Trump: 44.9% - Biden: 53.2%

Trump indeed outperformed his 2016 vote-share by 1.3 pts., but Biden increased Hillary's vote-share by 3.3 points.  Also, roughly 41,000 more votes were cast in the county during the 2020 Prezi vs. 2016.  

So if I had to guess, I'd say that high turnout was the catalyst for the increases in vote-share.  But again, I wouldn't say that the county trended R -- at least to a statistically significant degree.  

[Not Me, Us]

Why didn't you leave the forum for a year?

[perpetual_cynic]

I'm not sure exactly how Will County trended R. Biden's margin was better than Clinton's and Obama's in 2012, but 5 points worse than Obama's in 2008.

[Tartarus Sauce]

I'm not sure "trend" is the right word for Will County.

2016 - Trump: 43.6% - Clinton: 49.9%
2020 - Trump: 44.9% - Biden: 53.2%

Trump indeed outperformed his 2016 vote-share by 1.3 pts., but Biden increased Hillary's vote-share by 3.3 points.  Also, roughly 41,000 more votes were cast in the county during the 2020 Prezi vs. 2016.  

So if I had to guess, I'd say that high turnout was the catalyst for the increases in vote-share.  But again, I wouldn't say that the county trended R -- at least to a statistically significant degree.  

It still technically trended R since the nationwide 2016-2020 swing was D+2.4 while Will County swung D+2, but that's only an R trend of 0.4, so it is indeed statistically insignificant.

As for why Trump held up better here than the most of the other collar counties, it likely has to do with the fact that Will County has the largest WWC/lower-middle class element of all the Chicago suburban counties.

[Green Line]

Its the “poorest” of the collar counties and has a growing exurban population compared to DuPage and Lake which are more built out.  There are no high end suburbs comparable to Naperville and the North Shore, which trended hard D.

[Woody]

I'm not sure "trend" is the right word for Will County.

2016 - Trump: 43.6% - Clinton: 49.9%
2020 - Trump: 44.9% - Biden: 53.2%

Trump indeed outperformed his 2016 vote-share by 1.3 pts., but Biden increased Hillary's vote-share by 3.3 points.  Also, roughly 41,000 more votes were cast in the county during the 2020 Prezi vs. 2016.  

So if I had to guess, I'd say that high turnout was the catalyst for the increases in vote-share.  But again, I wouldn't say that the county trended R -- at least to a statistically significant degree.  

It was more to the right of the national environment than last time, therefore it trended R. Which is weird, considering the other surrounding collar counties trended D:

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

I'm not sure "trend" is the right word for Will County.

2016 - Trump: 43.6% - Clinton: 49.9%
2020 - Trump: 44.9% - Biden: 53.2%

Trump indeed outperformed his 2016 vote-share by 1.3 pts., but Biden increased Hillary's vote-share by 3.3 points.  Also, roughly 41,000 more votes were cast in the county during the 2020 Prezi vs. 2016.  

So if I had to guess, I'd say that high turnout was the catalyst for the increases in vote-share.  But again, I wouldn't say that the county trended R -- at least to a statistically significant degree.  

It was more to the right of the national environment than last time, therefore it trended R. Which is weird, considering the other surrounding collar counties trended D:

Ah! Thank you, Woodbury.  Was unaware that "trended" referred to a comparison vs. national environment. 

[lfromnj]

Its the “poorest” of the collar counties and has a growing exurban population compared to DuPage and Lake which are more built out.  There are no high end suburbs comparable to Naperville and the North Shore, which trended hard D.

Naperville is part of Will County in Wheatland township and that part is upscale. The rest of Will is either more exurban or mini cities of their own with a high minority population.

[King of Kensington]

Will is one of the more working class collar counties.