I don't all of this is as much of a fluke as you think it is, I think COVID still happens, the economic collapse still happens, and the BLM protests still happen. However, I think Clinton proactively shuts down the country minimizing the effects of COVID. While this probably means a worse economic condition, and the Republicans smelling blood in 2020 might not agree to stimulus, the hard right of the party is still pushing anti-mask nonsense, but the congressional leadership doesn't buy it. Anyways, seeing Hillary Clinton as popular due to her response, more moderate Republicans pass on the race, figuring that Clinton will win and after 16 years of Democratic control, it'll be basically impossible for the Democrats to win in 2024, and as a result the Republicans nominate an anti mask idiot who says they'll reopen the country, this is unpopular, and the candidate loses, though the election is closer than expected, Clinton gets Biden's IRL map+FL and wins the PV by around 5-6. The Senate is the same except Cunningham also wins.
Most likely something similiar to this. I could see Clinton beating Cruz.
