AL-04: Does Robert Aderholt face a serious primary challenge?

[I’m not Stu]

Does he?

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

Why would he? He seems to be a pretty lockstep far-right conservative.

[I’m not Stu]

Why would he? He seems to be a pretty lockstep far-right conservative.

He is, but he isn’t in the Freedom Caucus.

[Vosem]

He literally never has since his initial election in 1996 and his district isn't expected to change very radically -- why would he face a primary challenge?

[I’m not Stu]

He literally never has since his initial election in 1996 and his district isn't expected to change very radically -- why would he face a primary challenge?

His district has become much redder.

[beesley]

He will likely face a challenge but it won't amount to anything. He's a decent Rep for his district and conservative enough that he has things he can point to to prove it to a right-wing electorate.

[Vosem]

He literally never has since his initial election in 1996 and his district isn't expected to change very radically -- why would he face a primary challenge?

His district has become much redder.

So?

[I’m not Stu]

He literally never has since his initial election in 1996 and his district isn't expected to change very radically -- why would he face a primary challenge?

His district has become much redder.

So?

A district becoming less blue is one thing that can make an incumbent Republican vulnerable to a primary challenge.

[Vosem]

He literally never has since his initial election in 1996 and his district isn't expected to change very radically -- why would he face a primary challenge?

His district has become much redder.

So?

A district becoming less blue is one thing that can make an incumbent Republican vulnerable to a primary challenge.

I don't think this is true; in fact, most of the prominent primary challenges of the past decade (true of the defeats of Tipton, Pittenger, Sanford, Bentivolio, Cantor, etc.) happened in seats that were getting bluer.

[I’m not Stu]

He literally never has since his initial election in 1996 and his district isn't expected to change very radically -- why would he face a primary challenge?

His district has become much redder.

So?

A district becoming less blue is one thing that can make an incumbent Republican vulnerable to a primary challenge.

I don't think this is true; in fact, most of the prominent primary challenges of the past decade (true of the defeats of Tipton, Pittenger, Sanford, Bentivolio, Cantor, etc.) happened in seats that were getting bluer.

Then why might Mike DeWine be vulnerable in a primary as governor? Aderholt gets an F on his Liberty Score.

[beesley]

Then why might Mike DeWine be vulnerable in a primary as governor? Aderholt gets an F on his Liberty Score.

DeWine is a specific story related to his COVID handling, which may stem from him being more moderate/'sane' but it's the policies and narrative, not the ideology that makes him vulnerable. Conservative scorecards were relevant in the days of the Tea Party but a) voters listen to Trump first and foremost, and Aderholt is sufficiently Trumpy (though you could argue Tipton was) and b) support for a lot of Trump's policies (less so than in 2016 as these things are modified) might mean lower scores on the scorecard. Mark Sanford of course scored highly on the scorecard, as did Justin Amash.

[I’m not Stu]

Then why might Mike DeWine be vulnerable in a primary as governor? Aderholt gets an F on his Liberty Score.

DeWine is a specific story related to his COVID handling, which may stem from him being more moderate/'sane' but it's the policies and narrative, not the ideology that makes him vulnerable. Conservative scorecards were relevant in the days of the Tea Party but a) voters listen to Trump first and foremost, and Aderholt is sufficiently Trumpy (though you could argue Tipton was) and b) support for a lot of Trump's policies (less so than in 2016 as these things are modified) might mean lower scores on the scorecard. Mark Sanford of course scored highly on the scorecard, as did Justin Amash.

Yes, Tipton was Trumpy. Didn't Tipton lose partially because of his conservative scorecard ratings? Would DeWine be less vulnerable if Ohio were bluer than it is? Aren't these scorecards the reason Aderholt faces many no-name primary challengers?