Seems about right. I think this is less likely to flip than NV but a more likely GOP pick-up than MN and NM. LePage wouldn’t necessarily be a bad choice for the GOP here either. Lean D.
It just boils down to where the white vote has trended more inflexibly D — ME-1 or NM. There’s favorable trends for both parties in both states, but with ME being more rural and having more of a R down-ballot tradition, I’d give it the edge over NM, which even trended D this year and where R inroads with Hispanic voters were not particularly pronounced. We’ll see later what happens in the NM-1 special election, but if it’s a Stansbury blowout close to Biden levels and turnout is comparatively high, it’s probably a sign that the race is not particularly winnable for Republicans.
